How many electric vehicles will be sold in the in 2012? It's not an easy question to answer (especially when we hear news like this) but International Market Solutions (IMS) has released its fourth biannual study on the NEV, golf car and utility vehicle market. IMS calls these vehicles "the small, task-oriented vehicle market" and is trying to predict where people will be spending their money in the coming years. In the recently-released study, IMS finds that the overall market for these vehicles should grow to $5.5 billion by 2012 (up from $3.2b today) and electric vehicles "will continue to gain market share in the light duty utility and personal transportation segments reaching nearly 300,000 vehicles." More off-road EVs, AC power in golf carts and the globalization of the small vehicle industry are all components that factor into IMS' estimates. Also, note these two bullets in the announcement of the study (read the full thing after the jump):
  • Substantial gains for new, privately-owned vehicle (including neighborhood electric vehicles) and utility vehicle segments, where double-digit growth is forecast;
  • Increased sales of electric-powered vehicles in all segments, growing at an 11.5% clip through 2012. (Small, albeit significant inroads of electric power in the heavy duty utility vehicles are also likely.)
This study gives more credence to an attitude I've heard expressed when talking to people in the green car industry: in the coming years, the one-car-fits-all model will be replaced - at least for some people - by a right-vehicle-for-the-job model. NEVs will certainly be one of those options.

[Source: Marc C and IMS]



Utility Vehicles & Privately-Owned Vehicles Will Drive End Market Sales In The Small, Task-Oriented Vehicle (STOV) Market To $5.5 Billion By 2012.
Electric vehicles will continue to gain market share in the light duty utility and personal transportation segments reaching nearly 300,000 vehicles.

International Market Solutions (IMS) study analyzes the markets for golf-car type vehicles, NEVs and light and heavy duty utility vehicles

Cortlandt Manor, NY, 10 January 2008 - In a comprehensive analysis of trends and latest developments in the small, task-oriented vehicle (STOV) market, International Market Solutions, LLC, finds strong gains in major non-fleet markets for golf car-type vehicles and projects significant growth over the next five years, as total end market sales grow from $3.2 billion today to $5.5 billion in 2012.

The study, fourth in a series of biannual studies since 2000, is entitled, Golf Car- Type Vehicles and the Emerging Market for Small, Task-Oriented Vehicles in the United States: Trends 2000-2006; Forecasts to 2012. The small, task-oriented vehicle market includes golf-car type vehicles, privately-owned small vehicles and NEVs, and light and heavy duty utility vehicles. The study finds current new and used vehicle sales in this market to be in excess of 750,000 units.

Continuing an ongoing trend in the light portage and personal transportation segment, electric vehicles are projected to take an increasing share of this segment of the small, task-oriented vehicle market reaching nearly 300,000 units by 2012, representing over 70% of the market. Privately-owned vehicles such as NEVs and golf cars used in gated communities will continue to be a significant driver in electric vehicle market share.

In the heavy duty utility vehicle segment gas and diesel vehicles will continue to dominate. While a few manufacturers are innovating with electric vehicles in this segment, IMS does not foresee significant inroads for electrics by 2012 unless improvements and cost efficiencies are realized in battery and AC drive technologies.

Stephen Metzger, IMS Managing Director and principal author of the study, states, "We have seen continued market strength in the utility and privately-owned markets during the 2000-2006 trend period, as well as in 2007." He adds, "While the golf car industry is successfully navigating a transition from its mainstay segment, fleet golf cars, golf car manufacturers and other historically distinct industry segments, particularly industrial/commercial utility and recreational vehicle manufacturers, are increasingly competitive in what we at IMS have identified as the small, task-oriented vehicle, or STOV market."

Key Milestones in Industry Development

The small, task-oriented vehicle industry marked several milestones in the past two years that will help drive expansion in the next five years. These include:

  • Key new product entries and innovative technologies that boost performance and comfort, including the first adaptation of AC electric power to a major golf car-type vehicle manufacturer's product line;
  • Continued evidence of the globalization of the small vehicle industry, particularly in the sourcing of parts and accessories;
  • A major concentration of sales efforts and capacity expansion in off-road vehicles;
  • A tightening of used vehicle supplies, pointing to increases in the privately- owned (personal use) market.
Solid Market Growth in Outlook In the study's key forecasts, IMS projects:
  • Substantial gains for new, privately-owned vehicle (including neighborhood electric vehicles) and utility vehicle segments, where double-digit growth is forecast;
  • Increased sales of electric-powered vehicles in all segments, growing at an 11.5% clip through 2012. (Small, albeit significant inroads of electric power in the heavy duty utility vehicles are also likely.)
"Heading into an environment of continuing increases in the cost of hydrocarbon- and bio-based fuels and stringent regulation of emissions, IMS sees major opportunities for small vehicle manufacturers across all segments, especially when it comes to electric power" states Metzger. "Our study lays the groundwork not only for sales and marketing strategies, but long term corporate planning, as well."

For additional information: Go to www.internationalmarketsolutions.com . (Includes a detailed table of contents)

About International Market Solutions– International Market Solutions, LLC (IMS) is a management consulting firm with over 40 associates and more than 800 years of collective global experience bringing companies services in international strategic planning, market research, marketing/sales, operations, finance, knowledge management (IT/HR/Training), government relations, and legal. With offices and alliances in the US, China, Germany, South Africa, Viet Nam and associates located around the world IMS works with clients to bring about cost-efficient entry and expansion in international markets by augmenting client management-as needed-with interrelated core competencies. IMS has particular focus on fibers and textiles across a broad range of markets, as well as small vehicle automotive, personal use, and utility vehicles.

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