Autoblog

The Big Predictions for the Future have begun. This is the numbers game where eye-popping numerical targets start being thrown around before we've come anywhere close to achieving the eyebrow raising targets that are still 14 years away. According to Margo Oge at the EPA, the CAFE standard will need to jump to 75-MPG by the 2030s to meet greenhouse targets.

There is, somewhere, a "widely backed scientific-community proposal to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 80 percent by 2050 from 2000 levels." Based on current realities, the EPA has reckoned that the fleet average for fuel economy would need to more than double from the 2020 target of 35 mpg in about 15 or so years in order to achieve even the minimum standard.

The EPA is looking at a variety of alternative fuel options as a way to make the plan work. Yet we have no idea whether this is being looked at as a serious long term plan, or whether grand pronouncements are being made because it's the thing to do right now. While we freely admit that the world of cars could use some cleaning up, we do wonder... is any other industry going to be on the hook for reducing greenhouse gasses?

[Source: Detroit News]

Hybrid vehicles may hold most of the headlines right now, but both analysts and industry insiders agree that oil burners will comprise a far greater slice of the automotive propulsion market by 2020. BorgWarner CEO Tim Manganello told the SAE Automotive World Congress in Detroit that diesels would account for 20% of vehicles by 2020, and both Ford product chief Derrick Kuzak and Toyota engineering vice president Ed Mantey agreed with the assessment. Manganello based his prediction on powertrain trends in Europe, which already feature diesel engines in about half of its vehicles.

Hybrids were predicted to account for about 10% of the market by that time, which doesn't quite match up with the technology's considerable hype. We're all for more diesel and hybrids on America's streets, and with new oil-burners from Ford, GM, Honda and more already on the way, 20% sounds like a very attainable goal for 2020.

[Source: AutoWeek]