Filed under: Etc., Green, Tech, Lifestyle
Will peak oil trigger Mad Max society?
According to a study by the Energy Watch Group (EWG), all of you Mad Max fans out there might get the chance to live the movie if oil production continues to decline. The oil industry believes Earth's oil reserves can last about another 42 years at current pumping rates. Energy Watch, basing its conclusions on actual rates of production, says that oil production has declined since 2006 and will continue to do so -- by 2030, oil production could be half of what it is today.
The situation we're headed for -- and that some predict as soon as next year -- is called "peak oil." That means that although plenty of oil is still being pumped and sold, there isn't enough of it to go around. And that means the possibility of "widespread blackouts, the virtual collapse of transportation infrastructure in industrialized countries and a shortage of petroleum-based chemical fertilizers necessary to grow most of our food." And that means war, famine, pestilence, and hunger. A situation that is otherwise known as "deep doo-doo."
Of course, the caveat to all of this is that no really knows how this is going to play out. Long-range predictions have a way of being false as often as they're true (paperless office anyone?). We aren't suggesting that EWG is wrong, and we aren't saying that we don't need to be a lot smarter about our resources... but a lot is going to change between now and 2030. Who knows -- if a $30,000 Volt arrives in 2010, we could get another hundred years out of our oil supplies. Nevertheless, in case a Road Warrior future is in store, you might want to start practicing your lines now. Say it with us: You can run, but you can't hide!
[Source: Green Daily]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 8)
Josiah 8:42AM (2/13/2008)
Chevy Volt != 100 more years of oil supplies
the idea behind it however does, and would make oil much less valuable (uh oh!)
Reply
TwinTurbo3000GT 1:31PM (2/13/2008)
wait a second...they're basing their 42-year prediction on a 1-year trend?! Anyone else catch that?
I swear if anyone belives this bogus hype they need to be slapped. I'm sick of different "studies" trying to scare people into buying green. I hope one day people just stop believing whatever they read/hear.
Nathan 12:37PM (2/13/2008)
I wonder if the brits cried peak timber before they switched to coal, or peak coal before they went to nuclear? Are they going to be calling for peak sun pretty soon? Not enough sunlight to go around?
Look, sure we're using up the oil that is available and that's undeniable, the amount available is finite, but this cycle has happened several times in the history of the human race: running out of one resource brings light to a different resource/s. The world will not plunge into anarchy, we'll just transition away from oil to something else.
The Other Bob 8:44AM (2/13/2008)
Predictions like this fail to realize that no one will one day suddenly turn off the supply. As supplies of oil dwindle, prices will rise and non-oil replacements will become more profitable and better developed.
Conservation may actually prolong the pain by dropping the price of oil.
Reply
FiniteQuantity 2:15PM (3/02/2008)
At this time there is no conservation. World demand for oil is increasing. It is unlikely that the US finally trying to increase fuel economy after 30 years will match:
1) the increases from China and India who are now rich with cash from the jobs we have given them.
2) the increases in population growth of the United States - 200 million in 1970, 300 million a few years ago, 450 million in 2035.
Conservation "prolonging the pain" is the last thing we need to worry about. Our pain will be related to lack of conservation of a finite resource and of our population.
matt 8:44AM (2/13/2008)
good news for us is that they're probably wrong. everyone who's predicted that we've reached peak oil so far has been. $150 and $200/bbl oil will make heavy oil attractive.
Reply
FiniteQuantity 2:03PM (3/02/2008)
$150 or $200 oil will make gas much more expensive. Which will impact our lifestyles and will cause everything to get more expensive which will lower our standard of living. I don't see anything rosy about $150 to $200 oil.
Taylor 8:45AM (2/13/2008)
BS. With TWO production ready Hydrogen cars about to venture on the road, I think those moving H-bombs will kill us all.
OR
We will drive our happy little "southern corn lovin' vehicles, huyuck."
Please excuse me just waking up to this crap. >_>
Reply
UpIrons 8:48AM (2/13/2008)
The oil doesn't actually run out, demand simply outpaces all possible production because once production peaks, it can only go down from there. The question is when will it peak, or has it already? More and more, it's looking like it might have peaked already. The effects of which will gradually increase year after year. We may already be seeing the early effects but it's hard to discern from regular market trends just yet. I wouldn't buy an arsenal and start stockpiling just yet, but soon perhaps.
Reply
GeoSTI 8:51AM (2/13/2008)
There is a difference between reserves and resources, as price goes up, resources become viable reserves.
Oil Shale, nuclear-powered hydrocarbon creation, and others would become economically possible, thus, no real worries.
Reply
Derek 12:14PM (2/13/2008)
Is that kinda like the oil sands up in Canada? I remember the line 10 years ago was that oil sands were a great reserve but would not be worthwhile to mine for many decades. Whoops...
FiniteQuantity 2:21PM (3/02/2008)
Think about what you are saying - as prices go up we will transition to things that are unproven and that we no are more expensive. Why is there nothing to worry about what might not be viable and what has to be more expensive?
matt 8:51AM (2/13/2008)
I would agree with you if every hydrocarbon reservoir was drained 100%. since at most 25-30% of each reservoir is recovered with current technology at current oil prices, higher oil prices will mean more production.
Reply
FiniteQuantity 2:36PM (3/02/2008)
There is a possibility that they could come up with some way to recover a higher percentage of a resevoir if prices oil prices rise. But you are forgetting something - you just said it won't happen unless oil prices rise. That will make everything more expensive.
MajorGeek 8:58AM (2/13/2008)
My Mobil stock goes up and I will be dead in 45 years, good luck.
Reply
Brian 9:02AM (2/13/2008)
Wow. What a sorry, phony-alarmist, left-wing, piece of garbage this is. LMAO!!!!
Reply
Mallory 9:35AM (2/13/2008)
Heh, you almost got me with that one. My first reaction was "WTF?" but then I realized you were just trolling. If it wasn't so over the top it might have worked!
FSM 11:42AM (2/13/2008)
Yeah the oil industry is predicting peak oil. How much more leftist can you get when the industry that provides us oil is predicting hard times. They need to be more fair and balanced and tell us what neocon motor heads want to hear.
Avinash machado 9:04AM (2/13/2008)
I guess it is time to start oil drilling in Alaska soon. Maybe they will find more oil to last us another 100 years.
Reply
Ben H. 9:08AM (2/13/2008)
Most people don't realize that even though electric cars may reduce some usage of fossil fuels, it won't completely eliminate them. The batteries require polymers to be contained, thus oil. Then think about all the energy required to develop and produce these batteries, then the waste it produces when they fail, and the cost to replace them. My guesstimate would be the energy required would amount to the same as fossil fuels, if not, more.
Reply