The California-based electric-vehicle maker reiterated in its investors note last week that Model 3 vehicles would start rolling off the production line as soon as July. Tesla said it would be producing 5,000 Model 3 vehicles a week by the end of the year and will double that pace to an annualized rate of more than a half-million Model 3 vehicles by the end of 2018. Tesla shares hit a 52-week high of more than $287 earlier this month and have jumped 29 percent in the past year.
But that summer deadline won't be met, wrote Tamberrino, who put a six-month price target as low as $185, or a 25-percent plunge. Additionally, with money-losing company SolarCity in the fold, Tesla will likely need to raise cash by year end.
Tesla has been notorious with missing deadlines, and the Model 3 is particularly notable because of its advance interest. Within 24 hours of going on sale last spring, the Model 3 generated about 180,000 pre-orders, with each generating a $1,000 refundable deposit. That number has since grown to about 375,000. Unlike its Model S and Model X brethren, the five-seat Model 3 is more popularly priced, at about $35,000 and offers a single-charge range of 215 miles.