Porsche prognostications: sales to double by 2012 ... maybe

An article in Detroit News includes all kinds of predictions for Porsche from various analysts, many of which conflict. For instance, Porsche has doubled its sales over the last six years, to 100,000 cars per year. Morgan Stanley sees Porsche getting to 200,000 annual sales by 2012, while CSM Worldwide thinks it will be closer to 150,000 by 2013. The eye-popping number, however, comes from B&D Forecast, which sees it possible for Porsche to sell 500,000 cars per year by heavily utilizing VW resources and components. We don't know if they're aware that Porsche did that before ... and it wasn't exactly well received.

No matter the future numbers, right now we're a long way from the Porsche that had to scrimp so dutifully on costs that it created a 911 with a front end identical to its entry level model. Now Porsche has, in addition to magnificent profit margins, controlling share of Europe's largest carmaker, Volkswagen, hot emerging market sales, and a highly anticipated model (or two) coming in the Panamera. It all adds up to the kind of clout that allows Porsche to do what it wants, which is not worry about impending Euro CO2 regulations, nor rely so much on US sales.

The analysts surveyed differed on whether Porsche will actually make a baby Cayenne, whether there would be a hybrid Cayenne, and how those higher sales for its current and coming models would affect profit margins and exclusivity. One thing they all agreed on: Russia, China, India, and even Mongolia are where the new Porsche is getting more of its bread buttered. Emerging market sales will go from the current 15% to 30% by 2011.

[Source: Detroit News]

More Information