Doctoral dissertation estimates 'peak oil' between 2008 & 2018

A doctoral dissertation by Fredrik Robelius of the Uppsala University in Sweden contends that global oil production will reach its peak yield as early as next year before falling into decline. The thesis, which attempts to estimate the largest oil fields' future production, is based on Robelius's investigation of historical oil production, new oil field discovery and global reserves. The world's largest, or giant, oil fields number less than one percent of all fields but account for over 60 percent of global production.

Analysis: Robelius verified that the decline in reserves of a field is constant at an annual rate of diminution of around six to sixteen percent. His best case scenario - peak oil in 2018. If declining oil reserves push up fuel prices and rising prices drive purchases of fuel efficient vehicles, the day of the hybrids may be just around the corner.


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