At this year's Detroit Auto Show, Honda displayed concept version of the ninth-generation Civic Coupe and Sedan. Additionally, the Japanese automaker confirmed that its CNG-fueled Civic GX model will be released, for the first time ever, on a nationwide level. Though only a handful of automakers currently offer CNG-burning vehicles, a recent study by Pike Research suggests that sales of natural gas autos will increase at a steady clip over the next five years.
Pike claims that global sales of natural gas vehicles (NGVs) will rise from the 1.9 million vehicles per year reported for 2010 to more than 3.2 million units annually by 2016. Overall, Pike projects that 19.9 million CNG-fueled vehicles will roam the roads worldwide by 2016. Furthermore, the study claims that natural gas refueling stations will number nearly 26,000 globally by 2016.
Mostly, this growth won't take place in the U.S. Pike anticipates that India will lead the world in sales of CNG-burning vehicles by 2014, with Iran and Pakistan ranking second and third, respectively. By 2016, India's NGV sales are expected to hit 612,389 units. Additionally, the study claims that sales of NGVs in the U.S. market will soar by a 25.4 percent compound annual growth rate, resulting in 32,619 CNG-fueled vehicle sales in 2016. Though paltry in comparison to India's anticipated overall NGV sales, the U.S. market is projected to display the strongest five-year growth of any monitored nation, so that's something.
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[Source: Pike Research]
Natural Gas Vehicle Sales to Reach 3.2 Million Units Annually by 2016
Natural gas vehicles (NGVs) have been available to varying degrees since the 1970s, and earlier in some parts of the world. Despite this long history, adoption varies significantly from region to region, with NGVs used mainly for commercial vehicles in North America and parts of Western Europe and for consumer markets in parts of Asia and the Middle East. The primary growth drivers in these countries are the favorable economics of natural gas, the reduction of oil imports, the environmental benefits of lower greenhouse gas emissions, and the availability of vehicle and refueling stations. According to a new report from Pike Research, worldwide NGV sales will increase at a healthy pace over the next several years, rising from 1.9 million vehicles per year in 2010 to more than 3.2 million units annually by 2016.
"Corporate and government fleets are the strongest adopters of natural gas vehicles," says senior analyst Dave Hurst. "Not only will this trend continue, but in fact fleet sales will increase as a percentage of all NGV sales, representing two-thirds of the total market by 2013. More and more fleet managers are attracted to the lower fuel costs of natural gas, in addition to the opportunity to reduce their vehicles' carbon footprint."
Hurst adds that refueling infrastructure remains a key challenge for the NGV market, and the ratio of vehicles to stations is still too high, which is particularly a hurdle for the consumer NGV market. While the number of NGV refueling stations will increase in the coming years, Pike Research forecasts that the expanding infrastructure will not keep pace with the growth of the vehicle market. The firm expects that refueling stations will increase from approximately 18,000 in 2010 to just fewer than 26,000 in 2016, a 5.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). This compares to a 7.9% CAGR in natural gas vehicles on the road during the same period.
Pike Research's report, "Natural Gas Vehicles", provides a comprehensive examination of natural gas vehicle technologies, compressed and liquefied natural gas shipping and storage, governmental incentives and regulations, and key drivers of market growth. The report includes forecasts of NGV sales, refueling infrastructure, and natural gas usage through 2016 for light-duty vehicles and medium/heavy duty trucks and buses. Key market players are also profiled. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm's website.
Pike Research is a market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The company's research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy, Clean Transportation, Clean Industry, and Building Efficiency sectors. For more information, visit www.pikeresearch.com or call +1.303.997.4619.