Influential auto analyst dramatically reduces hybrid sales forecast

What if I told you that the director of one of the most influential think tanks in the country once predicted that hybrids would account for as much as 90 percent of the U.S. automotive market by 2025? Seems overly optimistic, doesn't it. Almost silly. Well, it's true and it was Philip Gott of Global Insight. According to the LA Times, he has since retracted that forecast and reduced it to 12 to 15 percent by that time. His new numbers lie much closer to J.D. Power and Associates' prediction which were released back in August with the Automotive Environmental Index (AEI).

Gott made his comments back in 2001, and believed that hybrids "were going to be the panacea." Because reports began to show that hybrids got, on average, 20 to 30 percent lower mileage than EPA estimates, U.S. consumers realized that their gas savings would not be as high as they once expected, even though they were still 25 to 30 percent more efficient than their gasoline counterparts.

Gott now believes that diesels will be the fuel efficient choice of most automakers in the next decade. He predicts that sales of diesel-powered vehicles will reach 12 percent of the U.S. market by 2026.

[Source: LA Times]

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