CNN Money says be wary of plug-in vehicle sales forecasts

A recent article posted on CNN Money opens with this statement:

To be a successful forecaster, the wise man said, pick a number or a date – but don't pick both. I only wish that seers into the future of the electric vehicle and its cousins, the plug-in hybrid and the standard hybrid, followed such sensible advice.

According to CNN Money, automakers, investors and the media display an inexhaustible appetite for news related to advancements in automotive propulsion. This, in turn, has led to an "irresistible temptation to feed the beast by conjuring up dates and numbers to quantify the speed and volume of adoption."

However, some predictions fail to assess the reluctance of buyers to shift from a gas-powered auto to an alternative-fuel vehicle. For example, back in 2008, J.D. Power declared that, "In 2009, we see hybrid sales going over 600,000 units." J.D. Powers' forecast was way off mark. Hybrid vehicle sales hit 290,272 in 2009. It's certainly best to be wary of plug-in vehicle sales forecasts, but we can still report when others make them, right?

[Source: CNN Money]