Coastal states will lead plug-in vehicle adoption through 2022

Aloha, indeed. While California will unsurprisingly add the most plug-in vehicles out of any state over the next decade, Hawaii will have the highest number of plug-ins as a percentage of overall vehicle sales. That's the one-sentence summary of a recent study from Navigant Research (formerly Pike Research), which estimates that plug-in sales will increase by about 19 percent a year through 2022. And, while such a pace represents a slowdown of sorts ( plug-in sales through August jumped 89 percent from a year earlier), if the numbers are accurate, then plug-in sales will easily outpace the growth rate of conventional vehicles.

The states with the fastest plug-in growth will be California, New York, Washington and Florida, meaning that BMW and Volkswagen, who are both about to enter the plug-in vehicle fray in the US, would do well to market themselves to those states. Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York City will be the fastest-growing plug-in cities ( not a surprise) while Oregon will make moves on Hawaii in the plug-ins-as-part-of-the-fleet over the next decade, so "Portlandia" fans can rejoice.

As for where these new plug-in buyers can charge up in public, California provides by far the most opportunity, accounting for 22 percent of the approximately 6,500 US public charging stations as of the end of August, according to the US Department of Energy. Check out Navigant's press release below.
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California, New York, Washington, and Florida Will Lead the United States in Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales through 2022

September 10, 2013

Although sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to date have not met the expectations of automakers and government officials, the market is expanding rapidly in North America as the vehicles become more widely available. Overall, sales of PEVs in the United States are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 18.6 percent between 2013 and 2022-significantly higher than the growth expected for the overall light duty vehicle market during the same period. According to a new report from Navigant Research, the states of California, New York, Washington, and Florida will lead the United States in annual sales of PEVs through 2022.

"The market for plug-in electric vehicles is beginning to mature now that the most popular models, the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf, are available in all North American markets, and Ford, Mercedes Benz, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Honda, Fiat, and Tesla are all ramping up production of competitive vehicles," says David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. "BMW and Volkswagen will soon add to the choices, and greater availability of charging infrastructure is supporting this growth. The majority of PEV sales will remain close to major cities on the east and west coasts."

By 2022, according to the report, the highest concentration of annual PEV sales (in terms of percentage of overall vehicle sales in the state) is expected to be in Hawaii, followed by California and Oregon. Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New York City are anticipated to have the largest sales of PEVs, among cities, over the forecast period. In Canada, the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia (which account for 75 percent of the Canadian population) will account for 97 percent of Canadian PEV sales by 2022.

The report, "Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts", provides data and forecasts for the PEV market for U.S. states, metropolitan statistical areas, and utility service territories, and for Canadian provinces and cities. The study provides sales forecasts from 2013 to 2022 at each geographic level and analysis of major trends in the forecasts. Percentage penetration and cumulative sales data are also provided. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.

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