Every single plug-in vehicle sold today represents about 15 by the end of the decade. That's essentially the calculation that Navigant Research (formerly Pike Research) has made, using all the prediction tools at its disposal. In short, Navigant says global annual plug-in vehicles will reach 3 million units by 2020 and will account for about three percent of all light-duty vehicle sales at that time.

Navigant is basing some of its lofty forecast on the fact that plug-in vehicle sales rose 150 percent last year as more folks got comfortable with the idea of driving on electrons. US plug-in sales, excluding undefined sales for the Tesla Model S and low-volume models like the Fisker Karma extended-range plug-in, reached about 50,000 units last year, or about one out of every 285 new vehicles sold domestically. Year-to-date, plug-in vehicle sales may have more than doubled (Tesla doesn't disclose monthly numbers) to more than 30,000 units.

Whether this forecast is a bump-up from Navigant/Pike's previous one is anyone's guess since there's not recent apples-to-apples comparison. Pike said in 2011 that cumulative plug-in vehicle sales would reach 5.2 million units by 2017, when annual sales would be at about 2 million units. Navigant's press release is available below.
Show full PR text
Plug-In Electric Vehicles Will Reach 3 Million in Annual Sales by 2020, Forecasts Navigant Research

BOULDER, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--While hybrid electric vehicles have largely been accepted as a part of the general automotive market in many regions, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) remain a new technology facing the challenges inherent in all new markets. Nevertheless, according to a new report from Navigant Research, the combination of rising fuel prices, falling PEV prices, and increasing availability of PEV models will drive rapid growth in this segment over the next several years. Worldwide sales of light duty PEVs, including both plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs), will reach 3 million units annually in 2020, representing 3 percent of the total light duty vehicle market, the study concludes.

"Neither scenario has proven true, as the PEV market continues to grow rapidly - about 150 percent between 2011 and 2012 - but remains a very small part of the overall global automotive market, with 0.2 percent market share in 2012."

"In its earliest days, the market for PEVs experienced both a great deal of hype and intense skepticism," says Dave Hurst, principal research analyst with Navigant Research. "Neither scenario has proven true, as the PEV market continues to grow rapidly - about 150 percent between 2011 and 2012 - but remains a very small part of the overall global automotive market, with 0.2 percent market share in 2012."
The limited availability of PEVs has been an inhibiting factor for growth in a number of large vehicle markets, including the United States, Germany, France, China, and other Asia Pacific countries. However, many of these limitations will be reduced over the next two years, according to the report, as new vehicles from Honda, Volkswagen, Hyundai, and others are launched in a broad range of countries.

The report, "Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts", provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric light duty vehicles. The report includes comprehensive data for sales along with underlying forecast assumptions for the consumer and fleet markets. Forecasts for annual vehicle sales by electric vehicle drivetrain, with comparisons to competing drivetrains, extend through 2020, segmented by world region and key countries. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.

About Navigant Research
Navigant Research, the dedicated research arm of Navigant, provides market research and benchmarking services for rapidly changing and often highly regulated industries. In the energy sector, Navigant Research focuses on in-depth analysis and reporting about global clean technology markets. The team's research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy, Smart Utilities, Smart Transportation, Smart Industry, and Smart Buildings sectors. Additional information about Navigant Research can be found at www.navigantresearch.com.

About Navigant
Navigant (NYSE: NCI) is a specialized, global expert services firm dedicated to assisting clients in creating and protecting value in the face of critical business risks and opportunities. Through senior level engagement with clients, Navigant professionals combine technical expertise in Disputes and Investigations, Economics, Financial Advisory and Management Consulting, with business pragmatism in the highly regulated Construction, Energy, Financial Services and Healthcare industries to support clients in addressing their most critical business needs. More information about Navigant can be found at www.navigant.com.

Share This Photo X