Autoline on Autoblog with John McElroy
Ford Says Series Hybrids (Chevy Volt) Are a Mistake
The Ford Motor Company is not going to chase GM and do a plug-in series hybrid like the Volt. In fact, the Blue Oval thinks that approach is a mistake. Instead, Ford is taking a three-pronged attack to developing hybrid and electric vehicles, with one technology building upon the other.
And by the way, Ford, like most other automakers, is putting fuel cell technology on the back burner. Until a hydrogen infrastructure for automobiles is put in place, there isn't much sense in developing cars that run on hydrogen, especially when that hydrogen infrastructure is many years and many billions of dollars away.
Ford's approach is to develop strong hybrids, which it already has in the market (Fusion, Milan, Escape, Mariner), followed by plug-in hybrids, followed by electric vehicles. In two years time it will have each of those kinds of vehicles in its showrooms.
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John McElroy is host of the TV program "Autoline Detroit" and daily web video "Autoline Daily". Every week he brings his unique insights as an auto industry insider to Autoblog readers.
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Ford prefers a parallel hybrid because it claims such a system is smaller, cheaper and better. I just had the chance to drive Ford's plug-in Escape that uses a parallel system, and it's interesting to see how it differs from the Volt. It offers up to a 30-mile range in pure EV mode and it will stay in that all-electric mode up to 40 miles an hour. At any speed over 40 mph the engine comes on, but that's typically at cruising speeds where the engine is most efficient.
In most strong hybrids you have to go very easy on the accelerator pedal to keep it in EV mode. But with the plug-in Escape, you can accelerate at a relatively brisk rate without getting the engine to kick in. Of course, if you really put your foot into it the engine will come on.
With the Volt you get up to a 40-mile range in pure EV mode, and you can drive it up to its top speed or accelerate as hard as you want without getting the engine to come on. But once you hit that 40-mile mark, or if the batteries hit 50% discharge, the engine comes on and stays on until you stop, plug-in and recharge.
I also had the chance to drive Ford's electric Focus and came away quite impressed. Though it still needs a few minor calibration tweaks, this car already performs admirably even though it won't be in production for another two years. It accelerates briskly from a standstill, yet still has enough get-up-and-go at 50 mph to accelerate and pass other cars. In fact, I'd say it's almost ready to go in the showrooms right now except for one thing: the cost.
To get a 100-mile range in an EV, which is what most automakers seem to be shooting for, requires a big battery pack. In the case of the Focus EV the cost of the li-on batteries is close to $30,000 at today's prices.
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The Ford Motor Company is not going to chase GM and do a plug-in series hybrid like the Volt. In fact, the Blue Oval thinks that approach is a mistake. Instead, Ford is taking a three-pronged attack to developing hybrid and electric vehicles, with one technology building upon the other.And by the way, Ford, like most other automakers, is putting fuel cell technology on the back burner. Until a hydrogen infrastructure for automobiles is put in place, there isn't much sense in developing cars that run on hydrogen, especially when that hydrogen infrastructure is many years and many billions of dollars away.
Ford's approach is to develop strong hybrids, which it already has in the market (Fusion, Milan, Escape, Mariner), followed by plug-in hybrids, followed by electric vehicles. In two years time it will have each of those kinds of vehicles in its showrooms.
____________________________________________________________________________________
John McElroy is host of the TV program "Autoline Detroit" and daily web video "Autoline Daily". Every week he brings his unique insights as an auto industry insider to Autoblog readers.
____________________________________________________________________________________
Ford prefers a parallel hybrid because it claims such a system is smaller, cheaper and better.
When it comes to plug-ins Ford prefers to go with a parallel hybrid, where the engine is still mechanically connected to the wheels. This differs from a series hybrid, like the Chevy Volt, where the engine is only used to recharge the batteries and is not connected to the wheels.Ford prefers a parallel hybrid because it claims such a system is smaller, cheaper and better. I just had the chance to drive Ford's plug-in Escape that uses a parallel system, and it's interesting to see how it differs from the Volt. It offers up to a 30-mile range in pure EV mode and it will stay in that all-electric mode up to 40 miles an hour. At any speed over 40 mph the engine comes on, but that's typically at cruising speeds where the engine is most efficient.
In most strong hybrids you have to go very easy on the accelerator pedal to keep it in EV mode. But with the plug-in Escape, you can accelerate at a relatively brisk rate without getting the engine to kick in. Of course, if you really put your foot into it the engine will come on.
With the Volt you get up to a 40-mile range in pure EV mode, and you can drive it up to its top speed or accelerate as hard as you want without getting the engine to come on. But once you hit that 40-mile mark, or if the batteries hit 50% discharge, the engine comes on and stays on until you stop, plug-in and recharge.
I'd say [the Focus EV] is almost ready to go in the showrooms right now except for one thing: the cost.
To stay in EV mode for 40 miles Ford says that a series hybrid system like the Volt needs a bigger battery pack. That means more mass and packaging space and since they use lithium-ion batteries, significantly more cost. A parallel hybrid, since it relies on the engine to do the heaviest work, can get by with a smaller battery pack, hence at lower cost.I also had the chance to drive Ford's electric Focus and came away quite impressed. Though it still needs a few minor calibration tweaks, this car already performs admirably even though it won't be in production for another two years. It accelerates briskly from a standstill, yet still has enough get-up-and-go at 50 mph to accelerate and pass other cars. In fact, I'd say it's almost ready to go in the showrooms right now except for one thing: the cost.
To get a 100-mile range in an EV, which is what most automakers seem to be shooting for, requires a big battery pack. In the case of the Focus EV the cost of the li-on batteries is close to $30,000 at today's prices.
...li-on batteries cost close to $30,000 at today's prices.
There are quite a few lithium-ion battery companies gearing up for production and the volume is going to ramp up fairly quickly. But unless or until the price of these batteries comes down significantly it's hard to see how these cars will be anything but a very small niche in the marketplace, whether they're series or parallel or pure EV.Autoline Detroit
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Brian 6:34PM (7/23/2009)
Pretty big talk for a company that just posted a $424 MILLION Q2 loss, burned a BILLION dollars in the same quarter and is leveraged up to it's eyeballs. How longer can their cash burn go on before C11 and a trip to the Bailout Buffet?
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Duncan 6:44PM (7/23/2009)
The difference is that they've got something to show for all that spending - an almost totally new product lineup and engineering that easily rivals the best in the world. You have to spend money to make money, of course, and I think Ford is on the verge of making LOTS of money.
Joe 6:56PM (7/23/2009)
Wow did you seriously just say that?
New GM's best work is a Camaro. They had plenty of time to fix that. It's turning out to be humorous at this point.
They have the same people warming the bench that used to be making the big calls. What do you think is gonna happen with GM? They made it through all the press releases about bankruptcy, now back to the way things were again.
I never thought I'd say it but I think Chrysler has a better shot than GM going forward once they get some capital to move forward on their new lineup.
laser 7:18PM (7/23/2009)
Obviously you spend less time becoming informed than you do blogging. Ford cash burn rate is the lowest in a year, debt is being paid down and with Ford's stock being on the rise, it makes an enticing opportunity to swap out more debt with equity that will appreciate. Perhaps if you were an informed person, you would have realized that even Toyota and Honda will post operating losses and the street has it that Ford's operating loss in Q2 will be lower than the other two.
Ford is not leveraged as you note - and the tone is meant to insult the company for actually having the NERVE to use its own assets as collateral for loans to weather the economic storm. And with Ford already reducing burn rate to under a $1 billion a quarter and DECREASING with each quarter executing its plan, there will be positive cash flow soon to pay down debt directly - and if you were aware of the fact that Ford is the ONLY automobile company to operate its own department specifically to ascertain monetary conditions and to act directly without a third party bank or brokerage, you would understand more fully Ford and how it has changed from 2006 before Mulally arrived.
jeff 7:18PM (7/23/2009)
i dunno if you noticed, but Ford's stock shot up about 90 cents with today's announcement, they exceeded analysts expectations. Compare today's numbers to those of Q2 a year ago. They're doing well now because they've pushed forward with new product development, and they've got a very competitive lineup right now and it's showing with an increasing market share. Cutting back on research into new powertrains like this would be very short sighted. They've still got $21B worth of cash after having burned through only $0.3B this quarter.
Brian 8:16PM (7/23/2009)
Ford might have had a chance had the government kept its nose out of the car business and let Chrysler go Chapter 7 and GM have a real Chapter 11 (not the fake "bankruptcy" then went through recently). But how can Ford compete against two massively subsidized rivals?
Mike 2:34AM (7/24/2009)
I bet when Toyota and Honda's second quarter reports roll in, they're much, much worse.
Their sales numbers are down much further and they have taken small if any actions on getting production capacity down to meet current demand.
We won't even talk about GM and Chrysler.
John 7:38AM (7/24/2009)
Sure it is big talk, because Ford has their head screwed on right and know what they are doing. Their opinion is important.
One thing they are not doing is expecting to make a yearly profit before 2011, and then only if the market shows significant recovery, but at $1B cash loss per quarter, they could carry on further.
Ford is making great product and business strategy choices that are working out just fine in terms of market share gains. If they have an opinion about EV technology strategy, it is probably worth listening to.
Your opinions however...not so much.
BTW, check out your votes.
VP 6:36PM (7/23/2009)
Pardon my ignorance but what is the difference between a Plug-in series hybrid (like the volt) and a plain Jane plug-in hybrid that Ford is planning to work on?
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KeatMP 6:46PM (7/23/2009)
The difference is the Volt uses its electric motor to propel the car exclusively, and it just uses the gasoline engine to power a generator to provide electricity when the battery depletes past its 40 mile mark.
A plug-in hybrid like a Prius or Escape will still use the gasoline engine to propel the car after the batteries deplete.
In the Volt, you can technically never use gasoline if you drive under 40 miles.
Epyx 6:48PM (7/23/2009)
The answer you seek is in the article above.
Staniel11 6:49PM (7/23/2009)
a series hybrid can do a complete drive cycle with EV only. Most plug-in hybrids (prius will be this way) can only keep the engine off until a certain mph (42 mph in the prius' case)
Los 6:38PM (7/23/2009)
I don't get why putting Hydrogen on back burners make sense. Are they goipng to wait until someone like Honda does the legwork with the FCX Clarity? It's kind of a chicken and the egg conundrum. Who will build the vehicles without the infrastructure, why build the infrastructure without the vehicles.
I like the idea of hydrogen. Yes, it has it's hurdles to overcome. Things like this just seem to put it that much farther off.
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Duncan 6:47PM (7/23/2009)
Honda's not going to be able to build thousands of hydrogen fuel stations on their own, either. They've gotten the ball rolling, and that's good, but they're not that rich.
Getting a real hydrogen-based infrastructure off the ground is going to take a lot of compromising and bold actions by a number of different interests, most of which are not going to just go along quietly. With everything else that's going on in the country right now, I think it's asking a lot to make hydrogen a priority until we've gotten the absolute most out of the system we have now.
Dustin 7:15PM (7/23/2009)
I agree, Los. If no hydrogen cars exist, why would the refueling infrastructure be built? The manufacturers have to show they are serious about building hydrogen cars, and the infrastructure will come after that.
Duncan 7:23PM (7/23/2009)
Dustin, see my post a little further down - that's basically the point I just made. Great minds, and all that... :)
KeatMP 6:49PM (7/23/2009)
I completely disagree with Ford.
With the Volt, you get the best of both worlds. Electric car efficiency, without the worrying about the battery drain of a normal electric car.
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laser 7:59PM (7/23/2009)
You don't get the best of both worlds with the Volt.
Here's why - the gasoline engine is too large and oversized for the application it is called for. A two cylinder biodiesel engine would be all that is needed. Plus the volt is too expensive for regular applications as it is envisioned. Then there is the fact that there aren't enough energy inputs that aren't fossil fuel oriented - perhaps having solar skin (more than just what the Prius does) that is available in film would do wonders to charge the batteries while you are at work.
The problem with the Volt is is yesterday's thinking half-arsed accomplished.
At least with Ford's design you still have the full engine capability available to drive the vehicle even if the battery system is inoperable (something you can't and don't have in the Volt). And then the Ford does what the Volt does and give you electric only for most applications for 40 miles at tens of thousands of dollars less. May be ancient thinking, but it is more cost effective for the masses.
jeff 8:21PM (7/23/2009)
@Laser
I agree with your point about the engine in the Volt being oversized. They might be doing this though to make the car more pleasant. Trust me, I've built a series hybrid where the engine is as small as can be, and therefore it basically has to run full power ALL the time. As quiet as it might seem when the car's going full tilt, it's really annoying when its just sitting there with the engine wailing away. From John Lauckner's webcast on ABG yesterday, it seems that GM is hoping to throttle down the Volt's engine in certain situations, like at a red light in order to make the car less obnoxious.
I think the Ford approach, while not completely gas free for 40 mile trips, would still barely sip out of the gas tank on short hauls. That said, I could be wrong, but I think your statement about the security of being able to run the car with a dead electric drivetrain isn't true. Based on the way the Aisin powersplit planetary gear setup connects the electric motors and gas engine, I'm pretty sure the engine cannot drive the wheels properly unless the electric motors have power.
Jim 8:53PM (7/23/2009)
"I agree with your point about the engine in the Volt being oversized. They might be doing this though to make the car more pleasant."
No, they're doing it because it's an engine they have. GM's burning tons of money/cash on development of the Volt, and now you all want them to burn more on a new gas/diesel engine too? Get real.