• May 28, 2009
What percentage of new vehicles in the U.S. will be hybrid in the year 2020? Take our poll after the jump!

According to a recent study conducted by JPMorgan, hybrid sales are about to take off. Last year, there were some 480,000 total hybrid vehicles sold around the world, which represents less than 1 of all vehicles sold.

Much of that increase in sales will be attributed to the United States, as the report suggests that hybrids will capture nearly 20% of total market share in this country. The study suggests that the increase in hybrid vehicle sales will be influenced by such factors such as increased pressure from government agencies to reduce fuel consumption and overall vehicle emissions, as well as a drastic reduction in the cost of hybrid technology.

Of course, it stands to reason that hybrid-producing automakers will benefit from this uptick in hybrid vehicle sales, but JPMorgan's study may also portend good things for the ailing supplier industry, which produces the majority of the hybrid drivetrain components used by major automakers all around the world.

What percentage of new U.S. vehicle sales do you think hybrids will represent in 2020? Take our poll after the jump!

[Source: Automotive News - sub. req'd]



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  • 27 Comments
      • 5 Years Ago
      Let's factor in costs to keep more complex hybrids running for extended periods outside the warranty. Yeah, you can rack up serious miles on a hybrid in a short time with few repairs, and that is good news, but what about those time/age related maladies that strike all cars? Especially electrical troubles? What is is going to cost to keep a 10 year old Prius going?

      At around $100 an hour at most dealers, trouble shooting gets expensive. What will be the cost to independents who want to get into the game or will it be a monopoly for dealer service centers?

      Let's face it, building cars takes a huge toll on the planet, and the fewer times we go through that cycle can only be a good thing for everyone. So, let's look beyond what we pay at the pump.
      • 5 Years Ago
      Shame that this report even exits, all it will do is help kick gas prices to $8 bucks a gallon if people are willing to buy them. The oil industry isn't going to loose any money by these vehicles being made and people might as well not be stupid and buy vechicles that they don't like and still get screwed by the price of gas as we still are today. Enjoy your big gas hog SUV and truck and be safe in them.
      • 5 Years Ago
      For what it's worth, Top Gear produced a very interesting piece on hydrogen powered cars. The conclusion was that hydrogen technology not only eliminates carbon pollution but the technology and distribution (pumps) fit into our current transportation infrastructure. That makes a lot more since to me than hybrids....it completely eliminates having to use fossil fuels, you don't have to wait to charge a battery, and it fits more practically in the way we use autos.
      • 5 Years Ago
      I'll look into getting a hybrid when gas reaches $7.00 a gallon and when hybrids start getting 80 mpg. It's a great idea but the cost to own one at the entry side of it now doesn't justify the money you will be "saving" in let's say 5 years.
        • 5 Years Ago
        @urdaddy
        An Accord, Altima or Malibu are bigger and more premium vehicles... you just killed your point by comparing them to a Prius. What people mean is that the initial cost of an Altima Hybrid is too high for it to have a financial benefit over a conventional i4 Altima... You might as well say that your decision to buy a Prius saved you money compared to the Charger SRT8 you were looking at, however it doesn't mean that it's cheaper to own a hybrid than a conventional car...
        • 5 Years Ago
        I have to agree, i think all companies have to do everything in their power to win over the consumer, and i am not sure that 50-60 MPG will do that, but once they'll start getting 80-90 MPG far more people will start buying hybrids
      • 5 Years Ago
      Hybrid technology is crap. Why develop something which still falls back on polluting fossil fuels and WAY outdated technology. I would hope in 20 years we will be using more advanced technology like all-electric and hydrogen vehicles. If battery technology does advance allowing us to make cheaper hybrids, why not just use that same technology to make better electric vehicles or hydrogen-assisted electric vehicles. Down with the oil cartels!
      • 5 Years Ago
      "JPMorgan's study may also portend good things for the ailing supplier industry, which produces the majority of the hybrid drivetrain components used by major automakers all around the world"

      so.... you're saying that automotive component manufacturers produce the majority of automotive components for hybrids? is this different than it is for non-hybrid cars, or was this just a sentence with no actual point?
        • 5 Years Ago
        I would be interested in a list showing which existing automotive component producers also make hybrid-specific parts and also broken down by country. A gradual changing of gears from producing normal car parts to some hybrid parts may preserve some jobs. Any job saved is a good thing.
      • 5 Years Ago
      Hybrids are the future, we need cars that get 70-80 MPG, that is the only way we kill our addiction and clean up the air.
        • 5 Years Ago
        HJC 2: Batteries are easily recyclable. And while they are bulky, if you condense the pollution - the carbon, the soot, the chemicals of a few thousand miles of driving in an average car, you won't be complaining about some ni-cads (is that what Hybrids are using still?)
        • 5 Years Ago
        I disagree.

        Something that does not use patrol at all is the answer. Something which is truly an alternative source. This something MUST be invented and implemented in USA. I am sick of sending money to those terrorists and madrassas in middle east and Pakistan.

        Hybrid is a patch but not the ultimate solution.
        • 5 Years Ago
        @HJC
        Batteries are recyclable though-one of the reasons why the Nickel-metal hydride batteries are still so expensive is because they add the cost of recycling them to the up front cost. And since there is a lot of money at stake here there are a ton of people working on bringing the cost of recycling them down since it'd make them a lot of money.

        Over time batteries get more and more recyclable as they develop more efficient ways of reusing materials-80% of the lead in a brand new car battery is recycled-why do you think they make you return the old core?

        This isn't like the old days where nickel cadmium batteries thrown into landfills would leak cadmium everywhere-NiMHs are a lot less toxic to begin with and huge car batteries are much more likely to get recycled compared to laptop or AA rechargeable batteries.
        • 5 Years Ago
        Great we trade oil for batteries..........
        Now tell me Mr. tree hugger how are we going to dispose of all those spent batteries down the road............. store them in Vucca Mtn. in Nevada ???
        We are only trading one problem for another
        • 5 Years Ago
        Seriously, who bothers these days with what these banks have to say about what the future portends?
        I remember tons of these 'speculative' study (essentially crap) released in the past few years, most of which never ends up coming to fruition.

        Example: Goldman Sachs claimed in 2007 gas prices were going to surpass 200 a barrel. Look what happened.
        And to think these same fools are making tons of money on our taxes mouthing Nostradamus like 'crap' under the name of 'studies' and moving paper around.
      • 5 Years Ago
      They do seem to be a stop gap measure. But what wil be the next step? Hydrogen? Full Electrics?
      • 5 Years Ago
      It is not future... Hybrids savings comes from driver input and small size. If you have the average American family with 2.5 kids, you will need more another car. Larger hybrids have no produced any better mpg. If you drive it like a normal car, the saving is little if any.

      The future is batteries that can last as long as a tank of gas and easily exchanged.
        • 5 Years Ago
        My buddy's Prius nets him a fairly noticeable gain in MPG even when he's driving normally. Since traffic is so congested in the morning when going to school or work, that battery kicks in and helps out a lot. The Prius is for heavy city driving, and when used appropriately is gives you a very tangible benefit.
      • 5 Years Ago
      I would believe this, except they have no reason to expect that "hybrid technology" will get significantly cheaper. Basically they're expecting some miracle battery to come along, but we've been waiting for that for decades, with no breakthrough in sight.
      • 5 Years Ago
      Bye bye fun cars, but could a hybrid be a "Fun" car? I think there are a few.
      • 5 Years Ago
      I wouldn't be surprised if my next car was a hybrid. It's cool technology.
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