Study: 20% of all vehicles sold in U.S. to be hybrids by 2020 [w/POLL]
by Jeremy Korzeniewski on May 28th 2009 at 1:27PM 
What percentage of new vehicles in the U.S. will be hybrid in the year 2020? Take our poll after the jump!
According to a recent study conducted by JPMorgan, hybrid sales are about to take off. Last year, there were some 480,000 total hybrid vehicles sold around the world, which represents less than 1% of global sales. By 2020, though, JPMorgan predicts that 11.28 million hybrids will be sold annually, representing over 13% of all vehicles sold.
Much of that increase in sales will be attributed to the United States, as the report suggests that hybrids will capture nearly 20% of total market share in this country. The study suggests that the increase in hybrid vehicle sales will be influenced by such factors such as increased pressure from government agencies to reduce fuel consumption and overall vehicle emissions, as well as a drastic reduction in the cost of hybrid technology.
Of course, it stands to reason that hybrid-producing automakers will benefit from this uptick in hybrid vehicle sales, but JPMorgan's study may also portend good things for the ailing supplier industry, which produces the majority of the hybrid drivetrain components used by major automakers all around the world.
What percentage of new U.S. vehicle sales do you think hybrids will represent in 2020? Take our poll after the jump!
[Source: Automotive News - sub. req'd]
Get a WordPress.com Blog
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Sea Urchin 1:39PM (5/28/2009)
Hybrids are the future, we need cars that get 70-80 MPG, that is the only way we kill our addiction and clean up the air.
Reply
Taglane 1:52PM (5/28/2009)
Probably the most sensible thing Sea Urchin has ever said.
DesiAuto 3:03PM (5/28/2009)
I disagree.
Something that does not use patrol at all is the answer. Something which is truly an alternative source. This something MUST be invented and implemented in USA. I am sick of sending money to those terrorists and madrassas in middle east and Pakistan.
Hybrid is a patch but not the ultimate solution.
Beastage 3:14PM (5/28/2009)
Hybrids like The Volt... yes, Prius and Insight? anyway I think diesel makes more sense.
2020, I actually expect hydrogen cars to be pretty mainstream by then.
HJC 2 4:59PM (5/28/2009)
Great we trade oil for batteries..........
Now tell me Mr. tree hugger how are we going to dispose of all those spent batteries down the road............. store them in Vucca Mtn. in Nevada ???
We are only trading one problem for another
Valentino Amoro 5:27PM (5/28/2009)
Seriously, who bothers these days with what these banks have to say about what the future portends?
I remember tons of these 'speculative' study (essentially crap) released in the past few years, most of which never ends up coming to fruition.
Example: Goldman Sachs claimed in 2007 gas prices were going to surpass 200 a barrel. Look what happened.
And to think these same fools are making tons of money on our taxes mouthing Nostradamus like 'crap' under the name of 'studies' and moving paper around.
SaintStryfe 7:14PM (5/28/2009)
HJC 2: Batteries are easily recyclable. And while they are bulky, if you condense the pollution - the carbon, the soot, the chemicals of a few thousand miles of driving in an average car, you won't be complaining about some ni-cads (is that what Hybrids are using still?)
tekd 7:27PM (5/28/2009)
@HJC
Batteries are recyclable though-one of the reasons why the Nickel-metal hydride batteries are still so expensive is because they add the cost of recycling them to the up front cost. And since there is a lot of money at stake here there are a ton of people working on bringing the cost of recycling them down since it'd make them a lot of money.
Over time batteries get more and more recyclable as they develop more efficient ways of reusing materials-80% of the lead in a brand new car battery is recycled-why do you think they make you return the old core?
This isn't like the old days where nickel cadmium batteries thrown into landfills would leak cadmium everywhere-NiMHs are a lot less toxic to begin with and huge car batteries are much more likely to get recycled compared to laptop or AA rechargeable batteries.
akboss302 1:40PM (5/28/2009)
Hybrids are still a novelty costing a decent premium over gas-powered counterparts, but when they are reduced in purchase cost and gas is double the price, many will start to move over for daily driving needs. It has to, its the interim solution to meet government fuel consumption mandates while waiting for Hydrogen.
Reply
alex 1:43PM (5/28/2009)
"JPMorgan's study may also portend good things for the ailing supplier industry, which produces the majority of the hybrid drivetrain components used by major automakers all around the world"
so.... you're saying that automotive component manufacturers produce the majority of automotive components for hybrids? is this different than it is for non-hybrid cars, or was this just a sentence with no actual point?
Reply
Rick C. 1:57PM (5/28/2009)
I would be interested in a list showing which existing automotive component producers also make hybrid-specific parts and also broken down by country. A gradual changing of gears from producing normal car parts to some hybrid parts may preserve some jobs. Any job saved is a good thing.
Marcello 1:46PM (5/28/2009)
I'll look into getting a hybrid when gas reaches $7.00 a gallon and when hybrids start getting 80 mpg. It's a great idea but the cost to own one at the entry side of it now doesn't justify the money you will be "saving" in let's say 5 years.
Reply
Sea Urchin 1:56PM (5/28/2009)
I have to agree, i think all companies have to do everything in their power to win over the consumer, and i am not sure that 50-60 MPG will do that, but once they'll start getting 80-90 MPG far more people will start buying hybrids
urdaddy 2:00PM (5/28/2009)
yeah when you cross shop them with the cheapest cars available it takes some time to "profit" from a hybrid compared to a non hybrid. My Prius was cheaper than the Camary, Accord, and Altima i cross shopped it with so i have been saving from day 1. that is half of the appeal of the Prius, full sized car w/o the full sized price at the pump. if you going to compare it to some cheap tiny, out of its class vehicle in order to distort the fact why not throw motorcycles into the mix? they're cheaper than any new car, better gas mileage, and can hang with super cars so they're obviously the best choice.
Serge 2:43PM (5/28/2009)
@urdaddy
An Accord, Altima or Malibu are bigger and more premium vehicles... you just killed your point by comparing them to a Prius. What people mean is that the initial cost of an Altima Hybrid is too high for it to have a financial benefit over a conventional i4 Altima... You might as well say that your decision to buy a Prius saved you money compared to the Charger SRT8 you were looking at, however it doesn't mean that it's cheaper to own a hybrid than a conventional car...
TRL 1:50PM (5/28/2009)
This is not about cost effectiveness. Neither were air-bags, catalytic converters or any number of things that drove the price of all cars up by thousands.
Reply
Erik 1:56PM (5/28/2009)
I wouldn't be surprised if my next car was a hybrid. It's cool technology.
Reply
Shawn 2:00PM (5/28/2009)
It is not future... Hybrids savings comes from driver input and small size. If you have the average American family with 2.5 kids, you will need more another car. Larger hybrids have no produced any better mpg. If you drive it like a normal car, the saving is little if any.
The future is batteries that can last as long as a tank of gas and easily exchanged.
Reply
Enigmatic 2:05PM (5/28/2009)
My buddy's Prius nets him a fairly noticeable gain in MPG even when he's driving normally. Since traffic is so congested in the morning when going to school or work, that battery kicks in and helps out a lot. The Prius is for heavy city driving, and when used appropriately is gives you a very tangible benefit.
Rafael Illan 1:44AM (5/29/2009)
^^^^^^^ i agree 100%.