Tesla reported 33,174 sales through the end of September, and Hybrid Cars says the estimate for its October deliveries is 3,500 cars, for a total of 36,674. That puts Tesla's average monthly delivery rate at 3,667 cars through the first ten months, a figure that would only get it to 44,008 were it to continue. But 50,000 can't be reached unless Tesla delivers 6,663 vehicles, on average, in November and in December, a figure that is more than twice the yearly average.
Analysts are cautious on the possibility, and have been all year. In April Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said he thought Tesla would miss its previous target of 55,000 but could secure 51,000 deliveries. In October, Zacks said the elevated back-loaded numbers mean "it may be difficult for the automaker to achieve its 2015 delivery target." Another analyst believes Tesla will make at least the 50,000 number, saying they've hit harder end-of-year targets before. No one is certain how much Model X deliveries will contribute, with Jones predicting 3,100 to come by year's end, Jeffries analyst Dan Dolev seeing 5,000 Model X deliveries by December 31. The answer, as always with Tesla, is 'we're not sure.' So let's wait and see.