Forecasting the residual values of automobiles is no easy task. Hence the reason why automakers turn to companies that specialize in providing vehicle valuation data. One such company, Europe-based CAP, which bills itself as a leading vehicle valuation firm, took a stab at predicting the residual value for the battery-powered Nissan Leaf. Of course, electric vehicles present a host of additional concerns that need to be considered before setting residual values, but CAP is quite confident that the Leaf will fare well.
CAP forecasts that the Leaf, at least in the UK, will retain 40 percent of its pre-subsidy list price after three years and 30,000 miles. In an interview with Fleet News, CAP's Mark Morgan, discussed how the forecasting firm arrived at the final numbers, stating:
Well, the explanation seems logical to us, but there's surely more at play here. Convincing used car buyers to purchase electric vehicles, with battery packs that slowly lose their punch over time, may prove more difficult than many analysts' predict. Furthermore, residual values, set before a vehicle even hits the market, often turn out to be inaccurate. Guess we have no option but to wait a few years and find out if CAP got this one right. Hat tip to David!The Leaf should have a shallower depreciation curve than conventional cars; the electric motor has fewer moving parts than an internal combustion engine so when mechanical issues and wear and tear begin to affect other cars, the Leaf should still be running well.