Pike Research has read some high-tech tea leaves and thinks that, by the end of 2020, 2.8 million light duty fuel cell vehicle (FCV) sales will have occurred. While we can't say if their FCV prediction (summary in PDF) is more accurate than their short term plug-in prognostication, or their medium-term electric two-wheeler forecasting, they certainly seem to have a firm grip on who the players in the hydrogen space are and have interviewed a good number of people to prepare this report. While some other reports recently have had accusations of bias hurled after them, the company does make a point of saying that they are independently run and have endeavored to produce an impartial look at the unfolding market "unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets."

According to Pike Research, whether the FCV future plays out as predicted will hinge on two things: the growth of hydrogen supply infrastructure and improvements in the "durability and efficiency" of the fuel cell itself. The firm has faith that automakers can meet their targets but is a little less sure whether governments and gas companies will make the investments necessary to grow the segment beyond the niche level in the first years of commercialization. Feel free to unfetter your own feelings about their findings in the comment section after the break.

[Source: Pike Research via Green Car Congress]

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