Volkswagen CEO Dr. Martin Winterkorn delivered a speech in Münich on Friday where he announced that the German giant would release its first electric car in 2013. Among the points that Winterkorn emphasized was the race to electrification would be a marathon not a sprint. He also acknowledged that electrics alone won't be enough to meet all needs so VW is following a number of different technology paths. Winterkorn also warns against "electro-hype" which could raise unreasonably high expectations among consumers. Even in Germany, where consumers are considered to be better informed than in the U.S., surveys indicate that one in eight buyers think EVs are already here.
Winterkorn says that current battery technology is inadequate for the task. Referring to the 150 lb, 1.7 kWh NiMH battery for the upcoming Touareg hybrid, it has the energy equivalent of just 1.86 fl.oz of gasoline. Even lithium batteries still need work to get the cost and weight to a production viable point.
The first VW EV that arrives in 2013 will be based on the "New Small Family" derived from the up! concepts of 2007. As the decade wears on, VW plans to have a range of affordable EVs in its lineup. In addition to the EVs, Volkswagen will be introducing hybrids with and without plugs and Winterkorn expects gas and diesel engines to continue to be developed for another 15-20 years. Read Winterkorn's Google-translated speech after the jump.
Translated by Google:
Prof. Dr. Martin Winterkorn
"On the way to the electric age? The Volkswagen Group and the future of mobility "
Munich, 03 July 2009
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thanks for the warm reception. I'm not only happy at meetings of the Handelsblatt. I look like in your newspaper. Above all, obviously because of the auto-reporting. We can get there two types of headlines read:
* "Journey into the abyss" is the one.
* "Hope Electric Car" is the other.
Economic crisis and technological era, pessimism and departure: These two poles move the whole industry. I will now speak to the second theme: "On the way to the electric age? The Volkswagen Group and the future of mobility "- the title of my lecture. He deliberately sets a question mark. Because the electron mobility combine many unanswered questions.
* When is the technology market and affordable?
* How quickly will they enforce the customer?
* And who can make the necessary investments on shoulders?
Thus we would have been enough in ordinary times to do so. But the times are not normal.
Chart car overall "
We are experiencing the worst crisis in the automotive industry for decades. For 2009 we are currently a total of around the 47-million. Those are 12 million fewer vehicles than in 2007. From January to June is the world market by 18 percent caved. The Volkswagen Group had opposed a minus of 5.1 percent. In June we were even around 6 percent plus. This shows that Volkswagen stays on course and proposes to continue in the competition proper comparison! For us, this is no cause for euphoria. But a confirmation that our strategy in 2018 on the right track.
Chart "Volkswagen Group: Nine strong automotive brands"
* We have nine strong brands that work well together.
* We have rock-solid finances.
* We have a huge technological potential, despite the crisis we are targeting to expand.
* And above all, we have an attractive and environmentally friendly vehicles on offer.
From this solid foundation, we proceed from the second mammoth task these days: the development of alternative, zero-emission engines. With the electron mobility is the automobile industry is facing a fundamental technological upheaval. One true time reversal. Our path leads away from oil, to emission-free mobility. And the electric car plays a key role. It is the future of individual mobility shape. This is what we at Volkswagen. And this development, we targeted progress. Another key role of the CO2-neutral fuels. Here are the oil and automotive industries such impulses come.
Chart "to the mobility challenges of the future"
Electron mobility is also a response to four major megatrends:
* First: The enormous growth of population and traffic. Alone in China are around 300 million people from their first car to buy.
* Second, the imminent collapse of traffic in mega cities like Mumbai, Mexico City or Bangkok. Until 2050, from 70 to 80 percent of people live in cities.
* Thirdly, the need to reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions - both globally and locally. Currently, cars cause about 7 percent of global CO2 emissions.
* And fourth, the limited resources of fossil fuels such as petroleum.
In particular, the perspective of rising oil prices is a "Turbo" for the change in customer behavior.
Only ten years ago were environment-friendliness and efficiency of any real purchase arguments.
Chart environmental pioneers of the Volkswagen Group "
Also we had the 3-liter Lupo (the first full 3-liter car in the world) 2005 due to lower demand. The same was true for the Audi A2.
Meanwhile, the world is different: The people have a more nuanced relationship with the car.
Where PS and cylinders have been counted, it now looks more and more on consumption and CO2 values.
This trend is no fad but a fundamental paradigm shift. And the Volkswagen design - not just since yesterday - active with!
Chart "Volkswagen electric and hybrid vehicles"
* The Golf City Golf Stromer or hybrid, we have the possibilities of early electrification tested.
* And with the Audi duo, we had 1997, the first hybrid vehicle in Europe in the series.
Also in battery technology, we were soon underway. The early 90s, the VW and Daimler subsidiary Daug Varta together with the nickel-metal hydride battery developed. Unfortunately, we head to Germany this abandoned.
From today's perspective, one has to say:
The German auto industry has the theme "electric" is not consistent enough to work! And since I agree with us at Volkswagen of self-criticism as well.
The more committed we are now on the topic. Here I am, however, very clear:
* First: The way to the electric car is not a sprint but a marathon!
* Secondly, electron alone is not enough! A company like Volkswagen has mastered all the relevant technologies!
* And third: The future of mobility and falls with innovations "Made in Germany!" And also just the electric car.
Chart "market forecasts for the electric car"
Firstly, the "Electro-marathon":
* According to a 2020 big business is one in four new cars in Germany electric drive.
* The market researcher Global Insight expects the U.S. only, with just under 5 percent market share.
In other words: There are at least as many predictions as experts!
As the automotive world in ten years looks exactly, is open.
Not only is the rapid pace of change in our industry and the global economy makes reliable predictions almost impossible. The last months have painfully demonstrated.
We at Volkswagen are therefore engaged the subject, but with eye contact: for 2020 we expect a global market share of one to 1.5 percent in pure electric vehicles.
In big cities and regions could be the popular but significantly larger. For example, in China, where the Government of the electric car with a massive aid program anschiebt.
Chart headlines electric car "
We are witnessing a "electro-hype".
* Experts, consultants and politicians bend over with forecasts.
* And the auto industry do not hold back on announcements.
The result is a massively false expectations by the customer. My experience was a key conversation with a longtime client a few months ago. Actually needed a new vehicle. But what he says? "I prefer to wait another year until it finally gives the electric car." And that, ladies and gentlemen, is not an isolated case!
More than eight percent of drivers in Germany are firmly convinced that the electric car is already there! (1)
I think this development is dangerous:
* Because we lose not only potential customers.
* We are also at risk, they sustained to disappoint!
The everyday, affordable and safe electric car for all 'is feasible. But is also true: The way forward is long and tedious! As I said before us is not a sprint but a marathon. Those who successfully finish, it must divide its forces and stop for mastering stage! In my view we are faced with three major task packages.
First: The electric car should be technologically and convince the practice test. Linchpin of electrification is the storage battery. The current battery types are designed for pure electric propulsion is simply inappropriate. Here are two illustrative examples:
Chart "energy content"
The NiMH battery of the future Touareg Hybrid weighs 1.7 kWh in nominal 68 kilograms. This corresponds to the energy content of conventional gasoline 55ml or 85g chocolate.
Chart refueling duration "
The second dilemma is the refueling time. If you are a minute current "fill", so you come around one kilometer. If you use the same time conventional fuel tank, the range at 1,000 kilometers.
Chart "Lithium-ion battery"
The highly complex lithium technology has the potential, on the other hand, almost all needs. Up to the production stage, however, is still much research and development work required.
* Scope, cost, durability, and performance package weight must be significantly improved.
* And on the subject of security is further challenges!
We at Volkswagen are in any case, still only those technologies fit into our cars, which we totally dominate! After all, we should experience in battery technology is not on the fast breakthrough hope.
Chart Technology (R) evolution mobile "
Take the first mobile phones, the early 80s:
* One kilo difficult
* 33 inches tall,
* Minimum call duration,
* But a maximum price of $ 3500! (2)
It has well over a decade and many billions are needed to implement this new technology to bring the breakthrough.
The second package: We need the electric car from the eco-niche to mass segment! Basically, there are the people of the electron mobility is very positive about. You can, however, with the current state of technology at most a few Hollywood stars convincing. And with the price ever! (3)
Chart "Customer expectations for the electric car"
The normal customer has very different demands on an electric car.
* He wants with his car from Munich to Hamburg - or at least relatively close to the Austria. (4)
* It accepts a maximum of one to two hours charging and also expects a strong Schnelllade option.
* Above all, he wants a maximum of 2,000 euros to pay more than today. (5)
For classification: Only the price of a battery pack that is still short-range, is now eight to twelve thousand euros. We must and will be the expectations of our customers. But this can only succeed step by step.
Chart challenge Infrastructure
Thirdly: The electric car will also require the appropriate infrastructure. And these include:
* Full power stations,
* Powerful, intelligent networks,
* And, for example, uniform standards for the connectors.
It is above all the origin of electricity. Every electric car is ultimately only as climate friendly as the generation of electricity is used.
* Is it ever make sense ecologically, a car with power from coal-fired power plants to operate?
* What potential renewable energy sources?
* Should we perhaps do not even have nuclear energy re-think?
* And how is the electricity lost in revenue by the petroleum?
These questions are important for the future of electric cars a big role. In addition to the automotive industry, energy suppliers are here and the policy must work together to give reliable answers.
Chart "Volkswagen fuel and propulsion strategy,"
Ladies and Gentlemen, this brings me to my second hypothesis: electric alone is not enough! The car of the future it will be for the foreseeable future either.
* In Europe, the diesel and gasoline engine in the next 15 to 20 years, the predominant drive.
* In Brazil, our flex engines in great demand, because they also run on ethanol from sugar cane can be operated.
* And in countries with high gas gain CNG and LPG fuels in importance. For example, in Russia.
Medium term we will have a mix of drive concepts see:
* Highly efficient combustion,
* Natural Gas Vehicles
* Biofuels of the 2nd Generation, for example, from the CHOREN and Iogen process.
* Hybrid and electric traction.
* And perspectively possibly the fuel cell.
Volkswagen as the largest carmaker in Europe must necessarily dominate the whole spectrum! Our group therefore has a broad-based strategy fans.
Chart "Successful environmental series"
High priority is given to optimizing our TDI, TSI and TSFI engines. The trend towards downsizing continues. And in combination with DSG, lightweight and intelligent electronics, we will at combustion engine still huge potential for efficiency lift. Our efficiency series at Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT and Skoda demonstrate what is already technically feasible and yet is affordable.
Chart Polo BlueMotion II "
A - I think - especially impressive example is the Volkswagen Polo BlueMotion II With a consumption of only 3.3 liters and 87 grams of CO2/km it economical 5-seater in the world. Nevertheless, he has 75 hp.
We must therefore right from the rebirth of 3-liter car talk!
You see, ladies and gentlemen: The internal combustion engine is certainly not dead! He is and remains the driving on climate change! At the same time we are driving the electrification of the powertrain step by step approach. To this end, we supplement our internal combustion engines are increasingly using hybrid technology - for example in the Touareg V6 hybrid.
Chart Touareg V6 TSI Hybrid "
He is the world's first hybrid SUV with a trailer load of 3.5 tonnes. A real power package with a maximum of 374 hp.
Nevertheless, the consumption of less than nine liters. Compared to conventional SUVs so we save up to 25 percent fuel. Next year will the vehicle go into production.
Chart Golf TwinDrive "
Another example is the Gulf TwinDrive. This plug-in hybrid brings the best of two worlds together:
* In the city he runs up to 50 kilometers electrically completely emission free.
* And on longer routes provide economical combustion for the necessary range.
The bottom line is a sensationally low consumption, with up to 130 KW power! The first cars we will in the coming year with the experimental electron mobility fleet "in Berlin on the streets.
Chart drive concepts using the example of the MQB "
The Volkswagen Group is the subject of "electric car" at all levels with the greatest consequence to our modular kits are designed so that all future vehicles, the package of electric drives can absorb.
And in our technology center Isenbüttel we use all our know-how in electric traction bundled.
* The development and production of the electric motor drive with high self-progress. Here we see great opportunities for our constituents works.
* And in the highly complex battery cell technology, we are expanding our know-how together with high-tech partners such as Sanyo and Toshiba from.
We rely here on a broad list with more powerful partners. Because at the end of the day is the best solution on the market.
The supplier industry is in the electron mobility, more than ever as a system and innovation partner.
With tremendous prospects: The global market volume for new drive components could be in 2020 to well over 100 billion euros to grow. (6) Dr. Neumann pointed to the same detail.
Chart "New Small Family"
Ladies and Gentlemen,
the claim by Volkswagen is not primarily the quickest, but the best solution for our customers.
* We will continue our New Small Family around the up! use from 2013 to the first e-vehicles offer.
* And the latest in a decade, we want to substantial quantities of pure electric cars offer - at affordable prices and with the reach that our customers expect.
Chart innovations made by Volkswagen "
That brings me to my third and last point: innovations "Made in Germany".
* In Germany, the automobile was invented.
* Volkswagen and Audi have with TDI, TSI and TFSI, the aluminum-body, or the direct shift gearbox significantly contributed to mobility today means "Number 1".
* And also the car of the future must be with us in Germany, developed and produced!
One thing is quite clear:
The automobile is anything but a discontinued model!
On the contrary: Individual mobility will continue to massively important!
The recovery will take time. But even conservative estimates expect the long term with a world above the 70-million. (7)
90 percent of the growth takes place outside of the classic triad markets. Our business is also in the future lots of potential!
Facts: Before us lies a long period of technological upheaval.
Such phases are risky. If they actively shaped, but always, they offer opportunities and new perspectives. The automotive cluster Germany can and must use these opportunities! We must do our technological advantage to expand. And we must at the electron mobility does not depend leave.
Therefore, estimates of the Volkswagen Group continued development spending and investment in new models and technologies of environment more than eight billion euros.
And that's why we are intensifying our cooperation with universities and research institutes in Germany and all over the world. Germany must again become a leader in electrochemistry are. It is not acceptable that these core technologies for the battery issue in our schools simply do not happen again.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
* Economic crisis and technological era,
* Pessimism and the shift to a new era.
The automotive industry is facing tremendous challenges.
The Volkswagen Group is well equipped.
Chart Audi A5 cabriolet - Skoda Yeti - Golf GTI - SEAT Ibiza "
Alone in the current year, we bring in 60 new brand composite models, product upgrades and successors to the market.
With our 2018 strategy, we have a clear, long-term direction for the future.
And in everything the next few years of news will bring.
The goal of the Volkswagen Group is and will remain unchanged: Inspiring, environmentally friendly and successful cars for our customers to build!
Thank you very much!