Don't look for a tremendous shifts in automotive market share over the next three years because it might not be coming. That's at least according to the annual Car Wars report by John Murphy, from Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research.

In the report's analysis of automakers' market share from 2013 to 2017, it predicts only small changes among the major companies. Ford and Honda see the biggest positive effect with an estimated 0.5 percent increase in their shares over the next three years; to 16.2 percent and 10.3 percent respectively. On the flip side, European automakers and Nissan are expected to lose 0.2 percent each to fall to 8.3 percent and 7.8 percent each respectively. The rest of the industry is predicted to hold steady as it is now.

The biggest loser in that prediction might be Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles. The report certainly throws a wet blanket on its plan for significant gains in market share. Murphy told The Detroit News that the company's goal was "almost unattainable."

To make its growth prediction, the report favors changes in market share because it's often an indicator of profitability. In the Ford and Honda cases, increases are due to the expected replacement of a larger percentage of their lineups with new models, compared to competitors. While shares might hold steady, the number of options for buyers is reported to increase significantly to 48 new models in 2015, up from 36 this year, according to The News. Most popular among them will be trucks and crossovers, hardly a surprise.

Obviously, this report is based on forecasts, estimates and predictions, and one catastrophe, whether it's natural or manmade, could knock it all out of whack. Unless that happens, change appears unlikely.


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  • 40 Comments
      Revis Goodworth
      • 6 Months Ago
      I am amazed at how little some here know about trends. First, Chrysler has had precious little growth - if at all - all they have done is to dig themselves out of a hole and slowly getting the volume they used to have back. That isn't growth - that is RECOVERING. It is quite easy to have gaudy numbers when you are going against weak comps - the reality is that this company will begin to stagnate - the cheap trick is to add nameplates to get growth - the reality of this is that this trick works for one year. And if there is nothing new, the traction of the new nameplate loses its luster. Second, much of Chrysler's growth is in the Ram and Jeep divisions - Ram is going to peak - if for no other reason other than there is no more production capacity - Jeep can only make so much as well - they will be capacity constrained in 12 months and there is precious little growth here by 2018. Third, the decline of the Charger will happen when the 2015 model happens - this is a real wimpy product looks wise and it will sell worse than 2014. The Chrysler 200 will sell only because the prior model sucked - yes, there is growth, but there is no sustainability in sales here after 18 months out. The assessment for Chrysler is pretty spot on - there is no production to sustain the growth rates and the products will tap out by that time too in newness. The only saving grace for Chrysler is that they are superior at updating at MCE than Government Motors - but not quite as good as Ford. And Ford has a huge pipeline of new products coming that will improve its sales - and that doesn't include lincoln rising from the dead.
        express2day
        • 6 Months Ago
        @Revis Goodworth
        The "digging out of a hole" you refer to is a reason for growth for ALL of the domestic brands, not just at Chrysler. U.S. Chrysler (brand) sales were up 53% 2010-2013. A number of Chrysler models had been discontinued 4+ years ago including PT Cruiser, Pacifica, and Aspen but as FCA begins to replenish the brand's lineup in the coming years with a new 100, new SUV, and new crossover much more growth will result. Additionally, the Town & Country will no longer have sales competition from the Grand Caravan which will be a significant boost to its sales. Chrysler is where most of the "domestic brand" growth is to come. Ram and Jeep are expected to have more modest (34%-44%) growth 2013-2018 and Dodge is expected to see a 10% decline.
        Piervittorio
        • 6 Months Ago
        @Revis Goodworth
        Your analysis forgets the fact that in the world, in 2013, were sold 83.5 million vehicles, of which only 15.6 million in the United States, and forget the fact that no longer exists as a Chrysler industrial group, but there is a group Fiat Chrysler, that is integrating and in many ways complementary. Chrysler has for the first time the possibility of making large numbers outside the U.S., especially with the best known brands in the world, such as Jeep. And of course take advantage of Fiat competence in diesel and turbocharged engines , as well as a strong presence in many emerging markets. And at the same time, Fiat has a chance to get with her brands in the North American market, where up to two years ago was only present with Ferrari, but today is also present with Fiat, Maserati and Alfa Romeo soon. . Often, in industry, 1 +1 is 3, and this is the basis of the expansionist strategy of Marchionne, in my modest opinion.
        Losferatu
        • 6 Months Ago
        @Revis Goodworth
        Growth is growth, regardless of where you started from
        billfrombuckhead
        • 6 Months Ago
        @Revis Goodworth
        Chrysler has had 50 months of monthly sales increases, that's over 4 years. Meanwhile they are strengthening their dealer network and customer base.. How many of these new Jeep and Ram truck buyers are also going to buy other Chrysler products? I bet a lot will. As far as production capacity, Jeep Renegade will come in from Italy and the Toledo Wrangler factory is being expanded. Alfa Romeos will come from Italy as well. What is this huge pipeline of new Fords vs new Chrysler products? I sure would like to see FCA hook up with Mitsubishi and get their Illinois factory, a big supply of midsize diesel trucks and access to more small car production and technology. Seems like a good bet this will happen.
      lostboyz
      • 6 Months Ago
      Nobody believed Fiat/Chrysler's previous 5 year plan and it has been a huge success. Over 5 years straight of month to month sales increases and continuously increasing market share. They've just now gotten rid of the truly crap cars and every new product seems to be more and more competitive. I'm truly curious what they are basing this on and how they can ignore some serious momentum
        JaredN
        • 6 Months Ago
        @lostboyz
        FCA's sales in the US are riding on the back of RAM and Jeep. While the Dodge Dart and 200 are far better than the models that they replaced, they still aren't world beating. They are decent cars, but they aren't carrying FCA's sales.
          express2day
          • 6 Months Ago
          @JaredN
          All four brands contributed decently to U.S. sales 2011-2013: Dodge up 145K units or 32% Ram up 110K units or 43% Chrysler up 81K units or 37% Jeep up 71K units or 17%
      Piervittorio
      • 6 Months Ago
      Honda is successful only in North America, where it is concentrated about 50% of their world sales (and production). In Europe the brand is virtually non-existent (just over 100,000 vehicles sold in 2013), due to the limited supply of diesel models, and the fact that stylistically the Hondas are considered by Europeans simply horrendous. In other world markets, the presence of Honda is marginal, partly due to a poorly versatile range of products, with a "very US taste". And that is normal, being US their first market by far. Personally, among the top 8 major automotive groups in the world (Toyota, GM, VAG, Renault / Nissan, Hyundai / Kia, Ford, FCA, Honda), I think Honda is the one with less chance of growth.
      MarkEngr
      • 6 Months Ago
      The writer's assessment is way off. Fiat Chrysler has seen & will continue their share gains over the next 12-24 months. Their month over month increases just passed 50 & will in all likelihood continue to 60 or more. This article is laughable. Chris you don't recognize a steam roller until it flattens you.
      JaredN
      • 6 Months Ago
      For Honda to gain share, they will have to start building compelling products. But Honda's recent vehicles have, for the most part, missed the mark. I just don't see them turning the corner. I hope Honda regains its footing, but I haven't seen anything to suggest that they've found their way.
        hokkaido76
        • 6 Months Ago
        @JaredN
        The numbers don't reflect your views. Ultimately, I believe that your statement is based off of the fact that YOU don't like their offerings, as opposed to the general non-enthusiast public.
          JaredN
          • 6 Months Ago
          @hokkaido76
          Oh? And what numbers are those? From USA Today, March 3, 2014: "HONDA. Honda of America's Honda and Acura brands fell 7% overall from a year ago to 100,045 vehicles. The Honda brand was down 8% to 88,860, while Acura was off 1.6% to 11,545. ... Among the Honda brand's volume models, Accord was down 12.1% to 24,622, Civic was down 5% to 21,575 and CR-V was flat at 20,759." From USA Today, May 1 2014: "Two leading Japanese automakers, Nissan and Toyota, showed spectacular gains in April. A third, Honda, went sideways, according sales figures released Thursday."
        mary.keana
        • 6 Months Ago
        @JaredN
        Honda is not having a hard time selling vehicles. Nissan and Toyota and. Hyundai Kia are boosting fleet sales and incentives. Plus, honda sales in India are exploding, growing in South America, South Africa, Thailand, Malaysia ... Honda global production numbers are hitting new record levels month after month.
          JaredN
          • 6 Months Ago
          @mary.keana
          Oh, and while you're at it, why don't you tell us your job title at Honda, since you are clearly an employee.
          JaredN
          • 6 Months Ago
          @mary.keana
          Would you care to provide citations for those numbers?
      mary.keana
      • 6 Months Ago
      The new fit and hr-v will add huge numbers to honda sales. Hr-v is not coming till end of the year. Honda has a large number of new products coming in the next two years. Pilot, odyssey, ridgeline, a couple of sports cars, and entire range of new turbo engines.
        leo
        • 6 Months Ago
        @mary.keana
        the fit is one of the ugliest car of this decade, the HR-V will sell in low vol as it will be too compromised for families to buy
      padma
      • 6 Months Ago
      Honda is the greatest car in my opinion. Had them in my family (4) of them, and we've never had one of them in the shop for repairs. Also, the trade in is hands down. When you drive this car off the lot, it doesn't loose value like most other cars.
      tenspeeder
      • 6 Months Ago
      F-C will lose once the Avenger and Gr Caravan end. The 200 and T&C won't pick up all of that lost volume.
        helloac
        • 6 Months Ago
        @tenspeeder
        The heavily discounted Avengers which make no money for FCA are the reason why the Dart hasn't been selling very well... and I expect the new T&C will win over a good amount of Caravan shoppers... and if not, Chrysler will still have the best selling minivan.
      NY EVO X MR GUY
      • 6 Months Ago
      I believe Toyota will take Chrysler's market share with the Sienna Minivan. It is the only minivan with an AWD option. Honda will also take some of that share with the Odyssey Minivan, as well as, Kia's Minivan. Small cars....Toyota, Honda,Chevy, Hyundai, Kia will eat up that marketshare as well. Midsize cars....Chevy, Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, Nissan and KIa will take that marketshare as well. Ford will lose marketshare with its Lincoln brand for as long as Lincoln Interiors resemble Fords Interiors. Fusions, Explorers and Mustangs will continue to sell at a steady pace. Overall....I think Toyota Will still show strength, along with the Lexus line. GM will sell the Impalas, Cruze, Tahoe, Suburban and Yukon will gain more of the SUV market. The escalade may loose steam with the competition with its pricing against the Range Rover, GL450/550 and maybe the LX570.....maybe A lot can happen in 3 years. No data can give you a definite outcome. Only a probable outcome.
      cpmanx
      • 6 Months Ago
      Worth taking a look at the past Car Wars reports. In 2010, John Murphy issued almost the exact same report: Ford and Honda would gain significant market share, Chrysler and the Europeans would drop. Oops. http://qa.at.ford.com/news/cn/Pages/QAwithJohnMurphyAuthorofCarWarsReport.aspx
      helloac
      • 6 Months Ago
      Most of Fiat Chrysler's growth will be outside of the US through 2018. The growth of Jeep globally is the big important part of the plan. The growth they expect in the US market I think is very reasonable. Except for maybe the Alfa Romeo brand... 150,000 Alfas per year in the US by 2018 would make them bigger than Infiniti and on par with Acura sales, a bit smaller than Cadillac (I think). My prediction is Alfa hits 100k in U.S. per year in '18; they'll need another generation of product to hit 150k.
        Losferatu
        • 6 Months Ago
        @helloac
        I'm rooting for FCA and Alfa, but even 100k sales in '18 is pretty optimistic I think. I think they could do half that easily with the right product and eventually ramp up.
      • 6 Months Ago
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