Don't look for a tremendous shifts in automotive market share over the next three years because it might not be coming. That's at least according to the annual Car Wars report by John Murphy, from Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research.
In the report's analysis of automakers' market share from 2013 to 2017, it predicts only small changes among the major companies. Ford and Honda see the biggest positive effect with an estimated 0.5 percent increase in their shares over the next three years; to 16.2 percent and 10.3 percent respectively. On the flip side, European automakers and Nissan are expected to lose 0.2 percent each to fall to 8.3 percent and 7.8 percent each respectively. The rest of the industry is predicted to hold steady as it is now.
The biggest loser in that prediction might be Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles. The report certainly throws a wet blanket on its plan for significant gains in market share. Murphy told The Detroit News that the company's goal was "almost unattainable."
To make its growth prediction, the report favors changes in market share because it's often an indicator of profitability. In the Ford and Honda cases, increases are due to the expected replacement of a larger percentage of their lineups with new models, compared to competitors. While shares might hold steady, the number of options for buyers is reported to increase significantly to 48 new models in 2015, up from 36 this year, according to The News. Most popular among them will be trucks and crossovers, hardly a surprise.
Obviously, this report is based on forecasts, estimates and predictions, and one catastrophe, whether it's natural or manmade, could knock it all out of whack. Unless that happens, change appears unlikely.