If those numbers sound modest, it's because of China. Long considered a veritable hotbed for potential electric-scooter and electric motorcycle sales, China may be far less of a lucrative market than previously thought because of traffic restrictions in the country's largest cities. Offsetting that prospective drop is increased demand from North America and Europe. In fact, demand in those two regions is expected to surge about 30 percent a year for the next decade, Navigant says.
Such fluctuations in global demand has made the prospect of selling these vehicles, especially the scooters, a mixed bag. Last September, BMW said that its Motorrad division would start selling the C Evolution scooter in Europe this year, while Mercedes-Benz parent Daimler has announced its own plans for its Smart division to start selling its own e-scooter. For smaller companies, though, the prospect has been dicier. For example, electric scooter maker Vetrix filed for Chapter 11 in 2009, thought it was out of the woods, then ended up filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection this spring. You can see Navigant's press release below.
North America and Europe will see strong growth as sales in China stall, report concludes
BOULDER, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The market for power two-wheel (PTW) vehicles, which includes electric motorcycles (e-motorcycles) and electric scooters (e-scooters), has grown slowly in recent years. Although sales volumes in the next couple of years are likely to remain low, due to continued high costs for components and low levels of demand, this market is poised for growth after 2015, as consumer markets continue to expand, new competitors enter the market, and suppliers increase capabilities. Click to tweet: According to a new report from Navigant Research, worldwide sales of e-motorcycles will grow from 1.2 million vehicles annually in 2014 to 1.4 million in 2023, while sales of e-scooters will grow from 4.1 million to 4.6 million.
"Consumers are seeking refuge from higher gasoline prices, electric two-wheel vehicles are growing more mature, and cities are becoming increasingly congested with traffic," says John Gartner, research director with Navigant Research. "All of these factors will contribute to growing demand for power two-wheel vehicles - particularly high-powered e-motorcycles."
The market for e-motorcycles and e-scooters is led by China, where the majority of these vehicles are sold. According to the report, however, policies limiting urban traffic in China indicate reduced sales in that country. E-motorcycle manufacturers in North America and Europe will address the market challenges by improving product quality and expanding their distribution channels. Navigant Research forecasts that sales of e-motorcycles and e-scooters in these two regions will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 30 percent through 2023.
The report, "Electric Motorcycles and Scooters", examines the global markets for high-powered and low-powered e-motorcycles, e-scooters, and the related battery technologies. The report provides an analysis of the market drivers and barriers and key technology issues related to e-PTWs, as well as the impact of government influence. Global forecasts for e-PTWs and the batteries used in the vehicles, segmented by region, technology, and internal combustion engine (ICE) motor size equivalent, extend through 2023. The report also examines the market for gasoline motorcycles and scooters, battery market issues, the effect of electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment, and the major industry players. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.
About Navigant Research
Navigant Research, the dedicated research arm of Navigant, provides market research and benchmarking services for rapidly changing and often highly regulated industries. In the energy sector, Navigant Research focuses on in-depth analysis and reporting about global clean technology markets. The team's research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy, Smart Utilities, Smart Transportation, and Smart Buildings sectors. Additional information about Navigant Research can be found at www.navigantresearch.com.
Navigant is a specialized, global expert services firm dedicated to assisting clients in creating and protecting value in the face of critical business risks and opportunities. Through senior level engagement with clients, Navigant professionals combine technical expertise in Disputes and Investigations, Economics, Financial Advisory and Management Consulting, with business pragmatism in the highly regulated Construction, Energy, Financial Services and Healthcare industries to support clients in addressing their most critical business needs. More information about Navigant can be found at www.navigant.com.