Not surprisingly, China will dominate global production, while its neighbors in Japan and South Korea focus on foreign production, rather than building vehicles in their home markets. The North American market, meanwhile, will be kept going with the help of the same foreign investments that are leading to a decline in Japanese and Korean production.
Europe is a different case altogether, as the continent continues its economic recovery. Russia and Turkey will fall back in 2014, although IHS is predicting demand will increase four percent per year from 2015 to 2017. As for production, the percentage of European-built vehicles that are sold in Europe will fall by 2021, from 70 percent to 50 percent. That number could be greater, although IHS is arguing that significant recoveries in the struggling Italian and Spanish markets will help keep sales of Continentally produced vehicles afloat.
Take a look below for the official press release from IHS.
OEMs to Shift Global Sourcing Strategy Outside Their Home Region; Demand from Southern and Eastern Europe Expected to Drive European Production Recovery
May 08, 2014 07:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time
BERLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Global automobile production will increase by 21 million units by 2021, and has grown by 25 million units since 2009 as the industry continues to recover from the impact of the global economic recession, according to a forecast by IHS Automotive, part of IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight. These topics will also be discussed at length at the IHS Forum in Berlin (12-14 May).
China will dominate, but there is a considerable upside attached to the North American industry as it attracts foreign investment, and in the European industry as its domestic markets climb back. Japanese and South Korean production will decline as local OEMs focus their efforts overseas.
Demand Shifts in Europe
Declining vehicle demand in Russia and Turkey will limit European production growth to one percent this year, according to IHS Automotive. However, from 2015 to 2017 European output is expected to increase by four percent per year, led by the recovery of domestic demand and sustainable increase in exports, primarily to the U.S. and China.
While it currently consumes 70 percent of European production, Western European demand will contribute only 50 percent of production growth expected by 2021. Of this share, more than a half will come from Spain and Italy as they recover from enormous losses experienced during the years of recession.
"European car makers will meet divergent demand environments, depending on which part of Europe they are more exposed to," said Denis Schemoul, manager Europe vehicle production forecasting, IHS Automotive.
"Segments are changing globally as the emerging markets tip the balance and mature markets come under pressure to downsize," said Mark Fulthorpe, director global vehicle production forecasting at IHS Automotive, who will be presenting these findings and additional automotive industry insight during a joint presentation with Denis Schemoul during the upcoming IHS Forum in Berlin on 13 May.
IHS Berlin Forum will bring together top IHS experts who will provide outlook across industry sectors and address the business impact of current affairs in the marketplace.