TMC used reservation numbers submitted by people in the queue to come up with 12,000. That number breaks down to 9,900 Model X orders from the US (around 1,350 of them the Signature Series), another 1,916 (202) from Europe and 384 (49) from Canada. Throw in an expected 764 (with an unknown number of Signature models) from China, and you get to a solid batch of preorders for the upcoming all-electric, AWD-only Model X. Over 13,000, in fact. TMC acknowledges that this number is higher than the expected real number of preorders because anyone who upgraded from the standard production version to a signature model gets counted twice in the system that TMC is using, and cancellations are not factored in.
Since Tesla isn't talking, we'll say 12,000 is a reasonable guess.
We would not be surprised in the least if there are already over 10,000 people lined up for a Model X. It will be the first EV of its size on the market (aside from the Toyota RAV4 EV, which is only available in limited numbers) and it carries the Tesla cache. After all, Tesla sold over 20,000 Model S EVs in the US last year, so we know the company can make a popular EV. Lastly, Tesla got $40 million worth of preorders - that is, around 500 units - in the first four days that the CUV was available for deposits back in 2012. Since Tesla isn't talking, we'll say 12,000 is a reasonable guess.