More specifically, almost three-quarters of those 81,000 will be either plug-in hybrid vehicles or extended-range plug-ins, with the remainder being pure battery-electric vehicles. Frost & Sullivan expects battery-production prices to drop by between 25 and 40 percent by the end of the decade, and plug-in vehicle prices to follow suit with a 25-37 percent decline, Frost & Sullivan says.
Brazil has ascended to become the world's fourth-largest automotive market and has long focused on ethanol as its green-vehicle method of choice, thanks in part to its abundant sugar cane crops. That focus has lessened in recent years, however, and in 2011, Brazil reduced its ethanol blend percentage from 25 percent to about 18 percent because of rising ethanol prices. Check out Frost & Sullivan's press release below.
Vehicle range, charging time, and initial cost of acquisition will be key purchase criteria
SAO PAULO, Brazil - September 5, 2013 - Brazil's electric vehicle (EV) market is set to grow substantially owing to supportive legislations, anticipated tax incentives for EVs, and enhancements in charging infrastructure. In fact, an estimated 35 EV models will be launched in the country, driving the market up to 80,877 units by 2020. Plug-in hybrids (PHEV) and range extenders will account for more than 70 percent of the market.
New analysis from Frost & Sullivan (http://www.automotive.frost.com), Strategic Analysis of Brazil Electric Vehicle Market, looks at how original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in Brazil can leverage this potential, and choose the right product positioning strategy. The study reveals that in addition to conventional outright sales and leasing models, OEMs must pursue car sharing and partnerships with car fleets to gain market share.
"Although Brazil's automotive policy towards EVs is at an early stage, the second phase of its Inovar-Auto program will provide incentives for EV manufacturers and end users, thereby encouraging adoption," said Frost & Sullivan Automotive and Transportation Research Analyst Ananth Srinivasan. "The expansion of EV charging infrastructure, currently focused on Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, to other key regions such as Pernambuco, Sergipe and Ceará will further boost uptake."
This development, however, remains slow, pegging market growth back to an extent. The continued preference for flex-fuel over hybrid electric technology is another restraint. Additionally, the lack of localized battery technology and the high initial costs of acquisition will hinder market penetration in the short- and medium-term.
Nevertheless, Frost & Sullivan believes that partnerships with utility companies will provide the necessary support to widen EV charging infrastructure in Brazil, and improvements will gather pace by 2017. Local participants in battery technology development will have significant growth opportunities.
Moreover, product costs will fall on the strength of tax incentives. Frost & Sullivan's estimates point to a 25 to 37 percent reduction in PHEV prices and 25 to 40 percent reduction in battery EV prices over the next seven years.
"Product launches in the small- and mid-size sedan segments, maintaining a price bandwidth of $40,000 to $65,000 and offering diverse business models, are key success factors in the Brazilian EV market," noted Srinivasan. "Market participants will also benefit from an early entry strategy."
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