To paraphrase the old Elvis Presley tagline, more than 800,000 Europeans can't be wrong. That's the conclusion of Pike Research, which estimates that sales of electric vehicles in Europe will jump more than fivefold between now and the end of the decade.

Specifically, EVs will account for about four percent of the European new-car market in 2020, up from 0.7 percent last year. That means that about 827,000 EVs will be sold throughout the continent in 2020. Pike acknowledges there are conflicting factors that need to be taken into account when estimating EV growth. While Europe's higher fuel prices will help push EV sales, the broader prevalence of fuel-efficient diesel vehicles may hamper automakers' effort to get potential customers to consider EVs.

Earlier this month, French electric and hybrid vehicle association AVERE-France said that more than 5,6000 EVs were sold in France last year, doubling its 2011 total and accounting for about one in every 6,200 of the country's vehicles. By comparison, about one in 20,000 US vehicles was a new EV last year. Check out Pike Research's press release below.
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Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Sales in Europe to Reach 827,000 Annually by 2020, Forecasts Pike Research

BOULDER, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Although government support for Electric Vehicles (EVs) in Europe is waning, the increasing availability of vehicle charging infrastructure that enables vehicles to charge at home, at the workplace, and in public places is facilitating market growth. With electric and electrically assisted vehicles now available in the mainstream market, the fundamental question is no longer if there is a market; rather, the question is how fast that market will grow. According to a new report from Pike Research, a part of Navigant's Energy Practice, EVs – including electrically assisted hybrids – will play an increasingly important role in European markets, growing from 0.7 percent of the market in 2012 to four percent in 2020. While that is still a small portion of the market, it represents more than 827,000 vehicles sold annually in the region.

"The European transportation market is significantly different from other world regions," says senior research analyst David Alexander. "Thanks to fuel prices that are significantly higher than in North America, small, efficient gasoline- and diesel-engine cars have led European sales figures for many years. Today, the market is still testing electric drive technology, waiting for the price premium for EVs compared to conventional vehicles to narrow, and in some cases waiting for electric charging infrastructure to become established."

Another difference between the European and North American automotive markets is the prevalence of diesel vehicles in Europe. The popularity of diesel has prevented hybrids from achieving the success in Europe that they have had in North America, where the contrast with large V8 vehicles is important to consumers. The biggest growth through 2020 is expected to come in battery electric vehicles, followed by plug-in hybrids, according to the report, while hybrid electric vehicle sales will lag behind in most European countries.

The report, "Electric Vehicles in Europe", examines key market trends and drivers for the purchase of light duty electric drive vehicles in Europe. The study includes an analysis of business models and demand factors, technology and standards issues, and government policies within the region. Profiles of 23 key automakers in the sector are included, and detailed market forecasts for vehicle sales and registrations are provided for 21 European countries, segmented by powertrain, through 2020. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Pike Research website.

About Pike Research

Pike Research, which joined Navigant's global Energy Practice on July 1, 2012, provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The team's research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy, Smart Utilities, Smart Transportation, Smart Industry, and Smart Buildings sectors. Additional information about Pike Research can be found at www.navigant.com/pikeresearch.

About Navigant

Navigant (NYSE: NCI) is a specialized, global expert services firm dedicated to assisting clients in creating and protecting value in the face of critical business risks and opportunities. Through senior level engagement with clients, Navigant professionals combine technical expertise in Disputes and Investigations, Economics, Financial Advisory and Management Consulting, with business pragmatism in the highly regulated Construction, Energy, Financial Services and Healthcare industries to support clients in addressing their most critical business needs. More information about Navigant can be found at www.navigant.com.


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    • 1 Second Ago
  • 22 Comments
      Reggie
      • 2 Years Ago
      Sorry about that Dave l do apologise l bet you read that new tabloid "i" newspaper, rather than a tabloid Just had a look to see how many EV's we have on our roads in the UK Dave. Nissan Leaf 1,027 G-Wiz 628 Vauxhall Ampere 355 Toyota Prius Plug-In Electric Car 336 Renault Twizy 236 Mitsubishi MiEV 227 Renault Kangoo ZE 223 Peugeot iOn 221 Aixam Mega City Electric 101 Citroen C1 81 Renault Fluence 57 Chevrolet Volt 51 Tesla Roadster 35 UK has 34,000,000,000 registered cars. 19,000 mainly diesel cars are exempt at the moment in London's Congestion Zone. Come June 2013 most of these diesels cars/Toyota Hybrids 92g/km C02 will no longer be exempt. 2013 Ultra Low Emission Discount will only apply to cars that are below 75g/km CO2 pollution. Peugeot boss thinks these EV Growth numbers are overinflated by 10 times. http://cars.uk.msn.com/news/peugeot-md-europe’s-ev-forecasts-are-wrong Might be the case with Peugeot iOn with just 221 on UK roads at the moment. Lots of other big cities will in the UK will introduce similar congestion zones. Personally l can see the growth EV's meeting those estimates in London. In rural areas, electric car growth will match the Peugeot bosses estimates. Londons Congestion Zone is situated mainly in West London, BMW Mercedes Benz owners will still cough up $41,240 every 10 years for the pleasure of driving their status symbols around London rather than buy an Electric Car. But also 100,000s more will give up on ownership of cars in London as well altogether Dave, as they get priced out of their cars and folk continue to lose jobs at an alarming rate as low paid service sector jobs start to die out like those lost at Comet, HMV, Blockbuster & Jessop's
      Spec
      • 2 Years Ago
      I knew the Europeans would start adopting EVs . . . especially France. With little oil of their own and very high taxes on gasoline, and 230V mains electricity, EVs are a no brainer for Europe. But the big problem is that they don't have as many single family homes and it is not easy to charge an EV if you park on the street. So in Europe, they better work on figuring out how to build a charging infrastructure. In the USA, with many single family homes, you can just put a charger in the garage.
        Reggie
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Spec
        French cars sales are in decline -13.2%, the UK have just overtakes French car sales with a +5.3% rise in car sales in 2012, Germany's car sales fell by 2.9% in 2012. Most of mainly Southern Europe and places like France car sales are still in big decline. http://www.acea.be/images/uploads/files/20130116_PRPC-FINAL-1212.pdf Renault are to lay of 7,500 and Peugeot/Citroen laid off another 8,000. Jaguar/Land Rover have taken on 2,300 new UK workers last year to keep up with growing demand. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said UK factories built 1.46m cars last year, of which 1.2m were shipped overseas. Total vehicle production in the UK increased 8% last year to 1.58m units, the highest level since 2008, and exports climbed 8%. Car output increased by 9%. Sadly though we lost 800 jobs at Honda & Ford lost 1,400 at its UK plants.
        American Refugee
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Spec
        Infrastructure is an issue and I don't have a garage (though there are two chargers on my street), but most Europeans these days live in suburbs or newer construction buildings with parking. It's a hurdle, but inner city dwellers like me tend to not have cars anyway. Europeans buy lots of cars despite the higher density housing, and EV's can make up a lot of them. Certainly, a Model S would more then cover all my needs :)
      DaveMart
      • 2 Years Ago
      The above figures do not include commercial electric vehicle sales in France. In fact: 'AVERE-France, the French hybrid and electric vehicle association, reports that sales of electric vehicles in France reached 5,663 units for cars (VP) and 3,651 units for commercial vehicles (LCV) in 2012, increasing 115% and 117%, respectively, against the 2011 results.' http://www.greencarcongress.com/2013/01/avere-20130108.html The commercial vehicles are largely the Kangoo ZE van.
        noevfud
        • 2 Years Ago
        @DaveMart
        ABG posters get paid a very small amount per post which is why we see all sorts of filler and low quality content.
        DaveMart
        • 2 Years Ago
        @DaveMart
        Renault also sold a couple of thousand Twizy quadricycles in France in 2012
      DaveMart
      • 2 Years Ago
      @Reggie: Sales of pure electric vehicles in Europe have been poor so far. Limited range and recession in Europe account for that. I disagree with your thoughts on the London economy. Relative to the rest of the country it is doing rather well, although of course many are suffering. I feel that the big opportunity for BEVs is in commercial use in London, and I can see many small businesses swapping to the Smart ED, the Renault Kangoo, the Zoe and the E-Up to capitalise on their congestion charge exemption. For private buyers PHEVs seem to be what sells in reasonable, if not large, volume. Several are coming, including a Golf in 2014.
      Reggie
      • 2 Years Ago
      Peugeot boss thinks these forecast numbers are overinflated by 10 times. http://cars.uk.msn.com/news/peugeot-md-europe’s-ev-forecasts-are-wrong UK EV sales jumped 16% in 2012, UK other car sales averaged a 5.3% rise in sales in 2012. London's Low Emission Zone rules and regulation have changed in 2013 discounts will be ending EV's & some hybrids will probably the only vehicles that meet the new introduction of the Ultra Low Emission Discount that comes in July that will save Londoners the pleasure of paying £2,600 ($4,124) a year in weekday drives around London in their car, so multiply $4,124 per year London Congestion by 10 years electric car ownership the average Londoner will save $41,240 in London Congestion Zone Charges. So l think electric cars sales will take of in London, but so will the continued mass abandonment of petrol/diesel cars by most Londoners who live and work in the zone, as they can't afford these charges or an expensive electric car.
        DaveMart
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Reggie
        What you have to say would be far more readily comprehensible if you used paragraphs. Only around 17% of Londoners have more than one car in the family, so in my view sales to private customers of BEV cars are unlikely to be substantial, in spite of both the Renault Zoe and a bit later the E-Up coming at a much more reasonable price than they have been up until now. Things are very different for work vehicles though, and I can see not only those two by the Smart ED and Kangoo ZE vans coming into much more widespread use. If the congestion charge continues to zero rate plug in hybrids like the Volt, then the UK variant, the Ampera and the similar Golf PHEV with around the same EV range coming in 2014 should prove popular.
      • 2 Years Ago
      Has this website simply become a regurgitation of pointless, unsubstantiated claims by Pike Research?
      2 wheeled menace
      • 2 Years Ago
      Yay! filler content from Pike.
      kEiThZ
      • 2 Years Ago
      So by the end of the decade less than 0.1% of the population of the EU will own an EV. What an amazing success rate!
      Reggie
      • 2 Years Ago
      Should have said approximately 34,000,000 cars are on the UK register my mistake. Of which the UK has 3,578 registered EV/Hybrid car on UK roads, so if they all drove down from everywhere in the UK to London's Congestion Zone would be able to use if for free when the regulations change.
      • 2 Years Ago
      It is so exciting to see the future of the automotive industry heading in a positive direction. Being apart of Penn State's EcoCar2 team, our goal is to inform societies of a greener, more sustainable future. Seeing this really exemplifies the leap towards a greener world.
      Giza Plateau
      • 2 Years Ago
      It all depends on which models the car makers make and how they price them. If they make some good cars from now on and price them based on cost like they do with combustion cars, then it will far more than increase 5x. But if they continue their bs it wont be 5x. The future is not a steady progression, it is what we make it. An EVs have far greater potential than what we've seen in the few cars so far. All the cars are very suboptimal. We could have a Tesla Roadster that's twice as efficient at less than quarter the cost. Truly.
      Jesse Gurr
      • 2 Years Ago
      What does fivefold mean again? Is it doubled five times or just 5 times the number currently? If it is 5x the sales now that would put it at over 167,000 EV sales last year in Europe. That seems like a lot. If it is doubled 5 times, then that would be over 25,000 EV sales. So which is it? And they only gave numbers for France and not Europe as a whole.
        Spec
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Jesse Gurr
        5 times the current number. But I'm not taking Pike's word on anything. The sales numbers were interesting though.
        Letstakeawalk
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Jesse Gurr
        It means five times the amount.
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