Frost & Sullivan has released a report stating that 4.1 million electric vehicle charging points will be in place in North America by 2017. The most common ones, 71 percent will be Level 1 charging stations for home charging, followed by level 2, which will account for 27 percent of the installed network (DC fast chargers will only make up a sliver of the total). To go along with the fact that most chargers will be private, nearly 87 percent of all electric vehicles are expected to be charged in residential locations, where they'll be parked in the garage for 10 to 12 hours in a day.

As stated, the report forecasts 4.1 million of these chargers being ready in five years. Wow! Okay, let's start with EV charging stations currently in place and do the numbers.

According to the U.S. Dept. of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center, there are currently a little bit more than 4,150 EV charging stations in the U.S. Statistics were not readily accessible on Canada and Mexico, but let's assume there are at least 500, bringing the North American total for public charging stations to about 4,600. Now, let's assume there are roughly 35,000 home charging stations installed since that's about how many Chevrolet Volt, Nissan Leaf and competitive models have been sold in the past couple of years. So, we figure, there could be about 40,000 charging stations currently installed in North America.

"The charging infrastructure is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 128.12 percent, due to the currency of the 'green' concept and oil prices' volatility," according to the press release. Now, wait a minute. We calculated the CAGR from 40,000 to 4.1 million in five years and got 152.43 percent. Perhaps Frost & Sullivan is starting from a slightly higher number of installed chargers, but something seems to be missing here.

*UPDATE: We got a clarification from Frost & Sullivan's automotive and transportation research associate, Prajyot Sathe. He explained:

The study takes into consideration various factors that support the forecasted number of charging stations. They are as follows:

1. 4.1 million (cumulative) charging stations/spots are expected to be installed by 2017, which cover residential and public locations.
2. Public charging stations include installations in workplace, shopping malls, fleets and all types of public locations.
3. Every electric vehicle sold comes with a level 1 charging station/cable for residential charging which can be plugged in household outlets.
4. The CAGR has been considered from the base date of 2011 with 12,500 units to 4.1 million until 2017, which makes it 128%.
4. There are various other assumptions such as battery size, electric vehicle estimated sales, etc. behind the number of charging stations
.
Show full PR text
No. America Charging Infrastructure to Reach 4.1M Units By 2017

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. -- The electric vehicle (EV) charging station market in North America has grown immensely, helped along by favorable government level (federal, state and municipal) incentives and subsidies for the purchase of EVs. The government is extending these plans to the installation of charging station and funding programs such as ECOtality's EV project, which is trying to install electric vehicle charging infrastructure in six major states.

New analysis from Frost & Sullivan ( http://www.automotive.frost.com ), Strategic Technology and Market Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in North America, finds that there will be approximately 4.1 million charging points by 2017. The most common ones will be the level 1 charging stations, as every EV sold will have a level 1 charging cord included in the vehicle. Level 1 charging station can be plugged in a household socket which takes approximately 8 to 10 hours to charge the vehicle and does not involve any installation cost. About 71 percent of the charging stations are expected to be level 1 followed by level 2, which will account for 27 percent of the market share by 2017. Nearly 87 percent of the EVs are expected to be charged in residential locations, as they will be parked in the garage for 10 to 12 hours in a day.

If you are interested in more information on this research, please send an email to Jeannette Garcia, Corporate Communications, at jeannette.garcia@frost.com, with your full name, company name, title, telephone number, company email address, company website, city, state and country.

"EVs are more expensive than conventional vehicles, therefore, federal government is granting customers as much as $7,500 in incentives to purchase an EV," said Frost & Sullivan Research Associate Prajyot Sathe. "Incentives include discounts on the purchase of EVs, tax credits or exemption and other advantages such as usage of heavy occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes and free parking."

The charging infrastructure is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 128.12 percent, due to the currency of the 'green' concept and oil prices' volatility. Attracted by its potential and low entry barriers, participants are emerging from multiple industries such as technology, vehicle manufacturers, and utilities.

Even while offering substantial opportunities, the EV charging infrastructure market is plagued by issues typical to a nascent market. Participants are looking for solutions to ensure standardization of charging systems in vehicles, charging stations, and business models. EV owners are also inconvenienced by the low access to charging stations and the 8 to 10 hours needed to charge their vehicles at level 1.

However, continuous R&D will help overcome these challenges in the next two to three years. As the market is still evolving, participants are in the process of identifying the scope of development of technologies and economically viable business models.

"Participants are introducing various strategies such as providing EV charging facilities in restaurants, leisure places and malls as a value-added service to customers," said Sathe. "They also adopt various business models such as subscription and pay-per-use to attract more buyers and make the most out of the market's potential."

Strategic Technology and Market Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in North America is part of the Automotive & Transportation Growth Partnership Services program, which also includes research in the following markets: Strategic Technology and Market Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Market in Europe, Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in North America, and Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Europe. All research services included in subscriptions provide detailed market opportunities and industry trends that have been evaluated following extensive interviews with market participants.

About Frost & Sullivan

Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, works in collaboration with clients to leverage visionary innovation that addresses the global challenges and related growth opportunities that will make or break today's market participants.

Our "Growth Partnership" supports clients by addressing these opportunities and incorporating two key elements driving visionary innovation: The Integrated Value Proposition and The Partnership Infrastructure.

The Integrated Value Proposition provides support to our clients throughout all phases of their journey to visionary innovation including: research, analysis, strategy, vision, innovation and implementation.

The Partnership Infrastructure is entirely unique as it constructs the foundation upon which visionary innovation becomes possible. This includes our 360 degree research, comprehensive industry coverage, career best practices as well as our global footprint of more than 40 offices.

For more than 50 years, we have been developing growth strategies for the global 1000, emerging businesses, the public sector and the investment community. Is your organization prepared for the next profound wave of industry convergence, disruptive technologies, increasing competitive intensity, Mega Trends, breakthrough best practices, changing customer dynamics and emerging economies?


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    • 1 Second Ago
  • 43 Comments
      JakeY
      • 2 Years Ago
      Given they are counting level 1, that essentially changes the numbers drastically. Given all cars come with a standard level 1 plug included and that almost all owners will also install a level 2 charging station, you can easily multiply the 35k number by 2 to get 70k (as any 120V socket can be counted as a "charging station"). If you do the math, they are assuming there are 66369 stations right now.
        MTN RANGER
        • 2 Years Ago
        @JakeY
        I agree. While I use my 240V EVSE at home, I sometimes use a 120V outlet in my parking garage at work for charging. If companies/office buildings put in lots of cheap 120V 20A outlets, that would be great. For the price of a single commercial EVSE ($3-6k), they could put in at least 50 120V outlets.
          SVX pearlie
          • 2 Years Ago
          @MTN RANGER
          "For the price of a single commercial EVSE ($3-6k), they could put in at least 50 120V outlets." Hmm... Let's see... hardware BOM (50' run) $ 15 per 20A GFCI (car OBC is probably not earth grounded) $ 40 per 20A AFCI (there is a "hot wire" plugged into the GFCI) $ 45 for 12/3 wire (23A capacity, grounded) $ 10 for conduit (in commercial garage space) $ 25 for box & plate (again, commercial garage space) = $ 135 in hardware + $ 115 in labor (licensed electrician) = $ 250 per outlet I think 50+ outlets would be a stretch, but 10 should be doable.
          SVX pearlie
          • 2 Years Ago
          @MTN RANGER
          "I would rather have 25 parking spots with outlets than everyone fighting over a single 240V EVSE." Totally agreed. Mass Level 1 charging will do far more for EV adoption than limited Level 2 charging. My issue was the notion that a future-dollars $3k Level 2 EVSE translates into 50x $60 Level 1 chargers, which is didn't seem right. But being able to put in a handful of Level 1 stations for an extra $1k? That's a no brainer if you're doing it as part of any renovation or new construction.
          MTN RANGER
          • 2 Years Ago
          @MTN RANGER
          SVX, Even at $250 an outlet (which could be lower in bulk) compared to a $6k commercial EVSE (which doesn't include installation) would get you around 25 outlets. I would rather have 25 parking spots with outlets than everyone fighting over a single 240V EVSE.
      brotherkenny4
      • 2 Years Ago
      So, 71% residential, which also says there will be 2.9 million EVs or plug-ins by 2017. I suppose that's possible but seems a bit optimistic. Maybe if Nissan lowers price and the chinese come in with really low cost EVs really fast. Definitely it would have to be imports, because the US companies will never do that.
        Rob J
        • 2 Years Ago
        @brotherkenny4
        "US companies will never do that" That's a pretty cheap shot at GM (Volt) and Ford (C-max, Focus and soon-to-be Fusion) who are all pushing battery tech. Not to mention Tesla and Fisker.
          SVX pearlie
          • 2 Years Ago
          @Rob J
          The Volt is not a compliance car. It's a real car, with production and scale accordingly. Same with the Leaf.
          SVX pearlie
          • 2 Years Ago
          @Rob J
          The GM Volt is easily the biggest-selling plug-in the US. It 7.5k sold in 2011, and should notch 20k in 2012. At that rate of growth compounded to 2017, GM will have sold 4.3M Volt. Of course, what will really happen is GM will diversify the Volt line and technology around 2015, along with making their eAssist plug-in similar to the new Ford plug-in.
          brotherkenny4
          • 2 Years Ago
          @Rob J
          Rob, there is no evidence that the US companies ever intended these to be anything other than compliance cars. Except maybe Tesla, but as yet they have sold a total of about 3K cars, which is not that many. Granted they are nice cars. Fiskers is not a US company, and how many cars have they sold? There's a big difference between 30,000 units a year (from all makers) and a total of 3 million on the road in five years. SVX, very creative math. Use two points to suggest a percentage change and extrapolate to the answer you want. Look, I'd really like these to succeed, but I don't think it will be the American makers who do it. I have worked in a number of technical industries in this country. I know how limited the thought processes of our business leaders are. They have no vision beyond the next quarter.
          Marcopolo
          • 2 Years Ago
          @Rob J
          @ brotherkenny4 Fisker is an American company. Headquartered in Anaheim, California, USA.
        SVX pearlie
        • 2 Years Ago
        @brotherkenny4
        "71% residential" 87% residential total from 71% Level 1 (120V) plus 26% Level 2 (240V).
          Naturenut99
          • 2 Years Ago
          @SVX pearlie
          "... 71 percent will be Level 1 charging stations for home charging, followed by level 2, which will account for 27 percent of the installed network (DC fast chargers will only make up a sliver of the total). To go along with the fact that most chargers will be private, nearly 87 percent of all electric vehicles are expected to be charged in residential locations..." The 27% of L2 is for all home and public charging not just home. Although, I wonder if there is misstatement by the 71% for L1 being solely (primarily... absolutely) for home charging since there are L1 in public. They should have divided it up in spreadsheet layout... L1: Home: ---- . L1: Public: ---- . L2: Home: ---- . L2: Public: ---- . Etc... .
      • 2 Years Ago
      Charging Stations why ? ....we use same household or commercial PLUG that we charge or laptops and cellphones to charge our electric Puma Sports Car in South Africa.. www.evdrive.co.za
      Spec
      • 2 Years Ago
      I'll put forth my proposal again . . . all new apartment buildings should require CONDUIT that would easily allow chargers to be added to all parking places. I'm not saying they need the chargers but they at least need to install conduit so chargers can be added cheaply/easily later. And perhaps we should do the same with workplace parking.
        Joeviocoe
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Spec
        ALL Parking!
        Letstakeawalk
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Spec
        Anyone want to run the math on how much all that conduit would cost? o_0
          Joeviocoe
          • 2 Years Ago
          @Letstakeawalk
          Bottom line, When a parking lot/structure is built, the cheapest course of action is to have it under construction only once. Installing the actual charging station and upgrading the power entry panels and/or connection to the transformer, does not require digging, drilling, or intensive labor. And thus MUCH cheaper. The reason I said, ALL Parking: A parking lot/structure may be used for one purpose when built, but zones change, tenants and businesses change.. and that parking lot may find itself with a different purpose. And may need to accommodate EV/PHEVs at some point. Just as low power lighting is a typical consideration when building a parking lot or structure, so too should EV charger wiring.
          SVX pearlie
          • 2 Years Ago
          @Letstakeawalk
          Running wiring to some number of "priority" spaces, say 5%, with space in the boxes to bump to 10%, 15%, 20% would be the way to go.
          Joeviocoe
          • 2 Years Ago
          @Letstakeawalk
          I would *first* like to know how much it costs to build a 200 car parking lot/structure? Several hundred thousand dollars? Conduit and thick wires may cost a few thousand dollars, maybe. The labor would be almost the same since the parking lot/structure needs to be wired anyway for lighting. So metal conduit would be installed in certain areas of the lot... the same areas as the lighting. Is it that much more to include thicker wires for future upgrades to charging stations? Not likely. Just the bigger wires and may be a larger diameter conduit to accommodate it. Future charging stations could be planned around the area of the lighting. So little to no NEW conduit would be needed, just bigger, maybe. Bigger wires, certainly. But not even the power entry panels would need to be upgraded until ready for chargers. ---------------------------- If we are talking about only installing conduit and wires only during the normally scheduled building or renovation of a parking lot/structure.... then the total cost is spread out and easily amortized. If it only increases the total cost of building a parking lot/structure by a percent or two, then it is definitely worth it. Nobody wants to pay to install something later. But people are much more accepting of added costs to the initial costs. How would you like that rust proof undercoating?
      Joeviocoe
      • 2 Years Ago
      Wow... extra speculative piece. But Mr. Jon LeSage, you are making the confusion MUCH WORSE by knowing that the report stated that the VAST majority would be home chargers... yet, you put up a photo of a public charger next to your misleading headline that calls them "charging stations" and makes no mention that almost all of them are merely EVSEs at home.
        Joeviocoe
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Joeviocoe
        correction... I read the original EVworld article. Most are not even EVSE.. but 120 Volt outlets that the EV can plug directly into without any "station". Bottom line, this ABG article does NOT quote a "press release" direct from Frost & Sullivan... but directly quotes from http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?rssid=28430 .... another blog! And they source only themselves although they do name the report. http://bit.ly/PG9ZBD ... is the actual report, (login required) It seems that this report is VERY liberal in the definition of "Charging Station". So liberal, in fact... you have potentially several dozen in your home right now.
      Nick
      • 2 Years Ago
      Compound annual growth rates, statistics and fancy graphs out the window, no way there will be over 4 million charging stations within 5 years, that is absurd. I'd be very happy if it reached 500,000 by then.
        SVX pearlie
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Nick
        Over 3.5M EVSEs in garages is far-fetched? 2.7M plug-in sold in 2017? I don't think so. The new 20-mile AER Ford is affordable and practical, just like eAssist. In 5 years, there is no reason why 50% of all GM & Ford sales cannot be eAssist plug-in, Voltec plug-in, or Energi plug-in.
          Nick
          • 2 Years Ago
          @SVX pearlie
          SVX You're being extremely optimistic. I'd say it's possible that 30% of cars will be hybrids by then, but not all of them plug-ins.
          SVX pearlie
          • 2 Years Ago
          @SVX pearlie
          Once a car is hybrid, it is pretty trivial to add plug-in to extend City / NEV capability. The low range and power requirements make Level 1 charging very attractive.
          Nick
          • 2 Years Ago
          @SVX pearlie
          SVX How many "hybrids" are really hybrids? Does a GM car with e-assist and a tiny battery qualify as one? Most hybrids have tiny batteries and barely deserve the name....adding a plug won't make a difference.
          SVX pearlie
          • 2 Years Ago
          @SVX pearlie
          The next gen Hybrids will be able leverage much cheaper Ah cell costs, so the batteries will be bigger and cheaper. The motors, etc. will also be chaper in bulk. Along with control software costs. It's trivial to add Level 1 charging as part of the next-gen Hybrid feature set. Something like eAssist with 3-5 mile AER and Level 1 charging *only* could be rolled out across 40% of GM's fleet without any problem. Ignoring Spark BEV and Volt EREV completely, if 40% of all GM cars and trucks traveled their first 3-5 miles on battery, how much gas would we save?
      Ryan
      • 2 Years Ago
      We need to be working on better batteries or green range extenders that let the cars travel 200-500 miles in a day. Then the chargers will just need to be on the highways at shopping malls or restaurants. Chargers need to be at destinations people want to go to, yet in places that people won't normally park in.
      Spec
      • 2 Years Ago
      I think all these terrible projections are a good indication of how hard it is to develop this biz. No one knows what the real adoption rates will be like. It is extremely complicated and there are all sorts of feed-back loops, technology development rates, and outside factors (such as the price of oil). So don't be surprised when sales don't come close to following projections. However, it would be nice if some sales once exceeded expectations. :-/
        Joeviocoe
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Spec
        Very true.... studying chaos really makes one skeptical at any of these claims. Way too many volatile factors that any prediction done that far out, stands a MUCH better chance of being WAY wrong than even remotely correct. But people love to just throw out as many predictions as they can and hope they can gloat if one turns out right.
      Ashton
      • 2 Years Ago
      I wish they would stop counting level one chargers in their total. I realize they want the number to sound nice & high, but If your going to play those stupid games why not count every garage in America. "YAY, by next year we will have 100 million charging stations" s/ They should only count level 2 & 3 chargers.
      goodoldgorr
      • 2 Years Ago
      They are going up the sink with their fast chargers so i predict that pure bev battery only cars and suvs will be a flop. Salemans of these bev are already rejecting them with end of product life closing sale then they won't order more for sale. The future is only bearable with a battery-gasoline hybrid where the driver adopt electric drive but without drawback except that the vehicle cost more unfortunatly.
        SVX pearlie
        • 2 Years Ago
        @goodoldgorr
        I agree that the immediate future is going to be primarily strong EV hybrids, with a handful of BEVs. I wonder how difficult it would be to package a 2-gallon tank-fed generator providing up to 100 miles of "range extender" function / longer-travel function.
      • 2 Years Ago
      Charging Stations why ..? We use same PLUG that we charge our cellphones and laptops at home or at work to charge our all electric Puma Sports Car in South Africa. www.evdrive.co.za
      • 2 Years Ago
      http://evseupgrade.com/ ...I guess this is the type of level 1 charging that has been referred in the article which is usually meant for residential charging.
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