The annual "Car Wars" report by Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy predicts that, despite their seizing of U.S. market share over the last few tumultuous years, Korean brands Hyundai and Kia will give it all back and then some to companies like Ford, General Motors and Toyota by 2016.

Murphy bases his predictions not on tea leaves or crystal balls, but rather the rate at which automakers launch new products. Ford will replace 26 percent of its product line over the next four years, a number that represents 46 percent of its volume, while General Motors will replace 25 percent and Toyota 24 percent. On account of these new product launches, Murphy says Ford can expect to add 0.8 percentage points of market share, General Motors will recover 0.5 points and Toyota will add another 0.3 points.

Other automakers that won't be so aggressive in turning over their lineups with new models include Chrysler, Honda, Nissan and the European brands, which Murphy surmises will all remain flat in terms of market share.

Hyundai and Kia, meanwhile, will be introducing fewer new models than the rest and therefore, Murphy predicts, will see a 0.5 decline in U.S. market share.

Of course, these are all just predictions and can be blown to bits with the next unforeseen economic crisis or natural disaster, just like the last three years were. And there are other factors that might affect market share for each automaker during the next three years, including the availability of raw materials, exchange rates, union contracts, recalls and a million another minor things that might grow to become big things, not the least of which is consumers deciding they actually like all those new products being launched.


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  • 62 Comments
      Big Squid
      • 2 Years Ago
      Well, he's either right or he's not. Although I do have to say that the financial industry is the one field where you can be consistently wrong and still be considered an expert.
      Abdul
      • 2 Years Ago
      even if this happens, I think there are getting better at high speed! look to the line of Hyundai and Kia these days!
      mylz
      • 2 Years Ago
      Does hyundai even check your credit score? A friend of mine, who lives at home with his parents who makes min wage is leasing a hyundai sonata because chevy and ford wouldnt even look at him. I remember reading hyundai/kia has the highest repossession percentage
        Awhattup
        • 2 Years Ago
        @mylz
        I see you "mylz" always bash Hyundai/Kia. I just bought a Hyundai and they surely checked my credit.
        NightFlight
        • 2 Years Ago
        @mylz
        This guy doesn't even understand that the dealer =/= manufacturer.
        Shiftright
        • 2 Years Ago
        @mylz
        What's your point?
      Edward
      • 2 Years Ago
      If the new larger Chevy products are an example, the Koreans have little to worry about. They are years ahead of Chevy, even with two year old product. Boring stuff from Dee-troit, indeed.
        L14t
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Edward
        Supercharging, magnetic ride control, and even naming a car the SS, it makes me fall asleep when I think how boring
        L14t
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Edward
        Supercharging, magnetic ride control, naming a car the SS, makes me fall asleep when I think how boring
      Eli Sanchez
      • 2 Years Ago
      Hyundai Kia's never dug them and I don't buy imports so I'll stick to my American cars.....
        BrooklynZ
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Eli Sanchez
        you do realize Hyundais are built in america right?
      buckfeverjohnson
      • 2 Years Ago
      I find Hyundai/Kia to have an agressive business model that will continue to work for them. Their styling is top notch, reliability is on par with the best, and they improve most of their product every single year. They seem to really listen to their customers and react quickly and it will pay for them. I think unless the Japanese can improve their styling, they will be the ones losing market share.
        Famsert
        • 2 Years Ago
        @buckfeverjohnson
        Oh really? The numbers don't agree with you. Toyota, Subaru, and Mazda are really stepping up their game. Their DSR growth in April were already better than their Korean rivals. Nissan's new Altima is looking really competitive too. The only Japanese company I see losing marketshare is Honda (and Mitsubishi) unless they can revamp the Civic and Accord as well as they did the CR-V which is one of the few decent cars they have out there right now.
          NightFlight
          • 2 Years Ago
          @Famsert
          Mazda is really the only one who has stepped up their game out of those manufacturers that you mentioned.
          Famsert
          • 2 Years Ago
          @Famsert
          Are you kidding me? Never heard of the Prius? I'm guessing you didn't hear of how its sales are doing either. It's going to take the compact market. How about the widely-loved FRS? The new Camry and Corolla are really competitive as well. The Yaris is still mediocre but at least it's a huge improvement over the older one in looks. The RAV4 is due for an update and that's going to shoot sales up unless they mess it up which they haven't done with any of their new models. Subaru has the BRZ now. The crosstrek actually isn't ugly unlike all the older Subaru models, and the Legacy is looking a lot better too. They are reaping the rewards in their sales, which I think you'll find it hard to argue about.
        Jesus!
        • 2 Years Ago
        @buckfeverjohnson
        Styling top notch? lol Thanks I needed a chuckle!
      Eli Sanchez
      • 2 Years Ago
      Hyundai Kia's never dug them and I don't buy imports so I'll stick to my American cars.....
      Famsert
      • 2 Years Ago
      Not really surprising since the Koreans have finished their big product launches already and the Japanese/Americans are just getting started again. On a related note, the Sonata already looks dated.
      Awhattup
      • 2 Years Ago
      Is it just me or.... does this article sound like Hyundai/Kia is the only other company out there. Of course, GM, Ford, Toyota will gain more sales as new models hit the showroom.. but this sounds like Hyundai/Kia will be the only one going to be losing the market share.
      BMW ROCKS!
      • 2 Years Ago
      finally hyundai news i can dig!
        desinerd1
        • 2 Years Ago
        @BMW ROCKS!
        me too. I just hate the cars that are good looking, reliable and can beat a 5 series in 0-60
      Darius
      • 2 Years Ago
      Well who ever predicted this didn't know Hyundai is on the 24/7 plan meaning 7 all new or refreshed products every 2 years. The next plan besides what Andy Dufresne said the Genesis sedan will be all new next year, the Genesis coupe will be all new for 2014 including an all new sedan variant(3-series fighter), Sonata and Tucson for the 2014MY, Elantra, Accent and Equus for the 2015MY, and new Veloster for the 2016MY. I believe that's just about all of Hyundai's lineup minus the Azera, Santa Fe and Santa Fe Sport correct?
        Darius
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Darius
        Lol a down vote? Haters must be furious...
        axiomatik
        • 2 Years Ago
        @Darius
        Genesis Sedan and Coupe are going to continues to sell in relatively small numbers. Coupes in general are slow sellers. B-segment is still a very small slice of the market, so I don't think the Accent will drive marketshare much. Equus is certain to continue as a niche vehicle. 2016 is beyond the window of this guys prediction, so Veloster doesn't really count. The *number* of nameplates redesigned is less important than which nameplates are redesigned. Redesigning niche vehicles will not impact marketshare significantly. Redesigning mainstream vehicles can.
      SidKrump@gmail.com
      • 2 Years Ago
      I used to get a new car approx every 2 years for outside sales, I've com to this very unscientific conclusion. 1) forighn cars have lousy a/c..yup, all of them cept lexus & infinity 2) BMS are too expensive to main , PERIOD END OF STORY 328e, 328i, 528i, 733i, 3)Once ireplaced all the rubbber body mounts, tranny mounts, engine mouts. The Jeep Grand Chereoke was truly bullet proof enginf/4 wheel drive system. 4) All nissans are built well....but uuuuugly Infinity m20 & m30 &QX4, great cars Infinity had great AC too. 5) My 1979 Scriocco was insanely fast, my new Tiguan....what a sleeper!!!! AC is terrible, but will suck your headlites out and get 30mpg. And there's my 89 Black on Black Mustang. Driving fast in last lane on a given hiway always got people to **** their pants.....they always thoght I was a cop. Priceless. Had a HONDA TSX..worst car, went thru 2 sets barakes and on 2nd batterry in 2yrs. But the best might be my 2000 Silerado 5.3. Egine took a dump..Chevy replaced it some time ago. Great brakes 64,000 snd still running strong,,And an ac the can only be described as nice and kewl. Tokiko shocks.
        SahjyD
        • 2 Years Ago
        @SidKrump@gmail.com
        What's up with u and a/c? You fat? Lmfao
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