Pike Research has put out an estimate saying that annual sales of plug-in vehicles in the United States will hit 358,959 by 2017. And they're not all going to the usual suspects. Mostly, sure, but not all.

Since there is no national Level 2 (or faster) charging infrastructure the way there is a gasoline network, Pike compiled its data by geographic region and even broke down the numbers one city at a time. As Pike states:
As government officials and utility managers plan for the arrival of grid-connected vehicles, they need to understand where those vehicles are going to be located and what the impact could be.
Seems logical to us. So, where will all the plug-ins call home? Well, according to Pike, New York and California will lead the way at the state level. Looking at individual cities, Pike says New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Chicago will be the U.S.' top five plug-in loving metropolitan areas. No big surprises there, but here's a bit of a shocker: relative to population, Raleigh, NC will lead the nation in registered plug-ins by 2017.

What type of grid load will utilities have to cope with in 2017? Well, Pike says that in the case of Southern California Edison's service territory, which is expected to be the U.S.' most plug-in vehicle-heavy region, the maximum grid load will be 498 MW in 2017. To handle the plug-ins and all the other increased energy demands, SCE is investing a lot of money to upgrade its system.
Show full PR text
Electric Vehicle Penetration Rates to be Highest in Smaller States

September 23, 2011

Sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are expected to accelerate rapidly over the next several years, posting a compound annual growth rate of 43% between 2011 and 2017, with annual sales reaching almost 360,000 vehicles by 2017. Adoption of PEVs will vary significantly by geography. Unsurprisingly, the most populous states will see the highest sales, with California, New York and Florida recording the highest PEV sales over that same period. As a percentage of total vehicle sales, however, smaller states will lead the way. According to a recent report from Pike Research, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, D.C., and Delaware will all be among the top states for PEV penetration.

Hawaii, which typically has among the highest gas prices in the nation, will be the top state, with PEVs representing 6.3% of total light-duty vehicle sales in 2017. The second highest penetration rate will be in California (5.4%), followed by Oregon (5.4%), Washington, D.C. (4.6%), and Delaware (4.5%).

"PEV penetration will be influenced by several factors," says senior analyst Dave Hurst. "Demographics, consumer attitudes, and available infrastructure will all help determine the uptake of PEVs in different areas."

In addition, because of manufacturers' rollout schedules, the availability of PEVs will vary widely by state and by region. New York and California today account for more than half of the available PEVs in the United States, while Southern states like Mississippi, Arkansas, and Alabama, as well as largely rural states such as Wyoming and Alaska, have very few plug-in electric vehicles available. This means that certain utilities, such as Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas & Electric in California and New York's Consolidated Edison, will need to accelerate their preparations for significant rollouts of PEVs compared to their counterparts in other regions.

Consumer attitudes toward electric vehicles differ from state to state, as well. Using data from Pike Research's Electric Vehicle Customer Survey, as well as qualitative indicators, Pike Research developed an "Index of Positive Opinion" toward PEVs. Scores ranged from 4.36, for Northern California, to 0.07 (effectively, a negative overall opinion) in North Dakota.

Pike Research's report, "Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts", provides data and forecasts for the plug-in electric vehicle market at the state and metropolitan statistical area levels. The report also includes forecasts for plug-in electric vehicle sales within selected electric utility service territories. The data includes sales forecasts from 2011 to 2017 at each geographic level, and analysis of major trends in the forecasts. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm's website.

Pike Research is a market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The company's research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy, Smart Grid, Smart Transportation, Smart Industry, and Smart Buildings sectors. For more information, visit www.pikeresearch.com or call +1.303.997.7609.


I'm reporting this comment as:

Reported comments and users are reviewed by Autoblog staff 24 hours a day, seven days a week to determine whether they violate Community Guideline. Accounts are penalized for Community Guidelines violations and serious or repeated violations can lead to account termination.


    • 1 Second Ago
  • 11 Comments
      2 Wheeled Menace
      • 3 Years Ago
      There is plenty of content out there that autoblog doesn't cover. All it takes is a link and a paragraph; This is a blog and not a magazine. You really don't have to try too hard. I mean people do click on the link for these stupid pike research articles. And they do click on 'rate an ad' BS too. Ever heard of greencarcongress? ecogeek? Sorry dude but this is senseless filler content, just like those 'look at this ad and rate it' posts on autoblog which are spreading to this site too. I am more well informed about alternative energy cars, future battery tech, and hydrogen from a forum about electric bikes than here. Autoblog green is nowhere near as good as it used to be...
      BipDBo
      • 3 Years Ago
      There seems to be a popular idea out there that i disagree with. It's the notion that EVs won't be widely adopted without public charging stations. To the contrary, I think that public charging stations are of a much lesser value, and EVs can succeed without them. Think about it. You own an EV with a functionally reliable range of 80 miles. You want to make a trip somewhere that is 50 miles away, so you know you can make it there and back. The public charging station is only useful if it is near enough to your destination to walk, take a bus or a cab. It's also only useful if you plan to be there long enough to get enough charge, but you need to make sure you don't leave it parked in that so long that you get a ticket. Now, if you get to the charger, and it's already occupied, you're SOL. So you consider these issues before you leave the house, and what do you do? You take the other car in your driveway, perhaps the Prius, and let your wife take the Leaf. Most EVs will be almost always charged at home, and only used within a radius of home equal to 1/2 of their range. This radius covers a lot of ground, by far the majority of trips for most people. Since you can buy both a Leaf and a Versa for about the same price as a Volt, I don't see the problem. Perhaps instead of owning a 2nd car that runs on gas, you would rather join a car sharing program or rent on occassion. I don't see, therefore why manufacturers would want to limit themselves to certain plu-in loving metropolises when there are people every where who would want to plug in. I also don't see the value in pushing public charging stations, especially when paid for by public funds.
        • 3 Years Ago
        @BipDBo
        Commuting patterns and the roads are different in the US, but here in Europe I would see fast chargers as making the difference. If you live, say, in London, and want to go away to visit friends most of the routes you will use for most of the journey are likely to be on main arterial highways. The installation of fast chargers on them would mean that relatively few would make a big difference, and instead of going right to your destination or near to it you would charge up on the main highway where charging points are more plentiful. Two car households are also somewhat less common than in the US, and I reckon many could manage with one car and perhaps the occasional hire car.
          BipDBo
          • 3 Years Ago
          I didn't mention this in my comment, because it was already getting so long, but I agree with you. I see a purpose in having quick charging stations along highways, perhaps at existing commercial rest stops where there are restaurants, coffee shops, etc. I think that it may be slightly early for that now, but as the population of EVs rises, these businesses will have incentive to install these chargers on thier own dime. Within a metropolis, the only useful location that I can see for a charging station would be at a public transportation hub like a park-n-ride subway stop.
      • 3 Years Ago
      If annual car sales are around 17 million, then plug-in vehicle sales are just around 2 % by 2017. Sounds conservative, considered Ghosn's version of 10 % electric sales by 2020.
      lne937s
      • 3 Years Ago
      I think the error of their assumptions is that just because there currently is little charging infrastructure, it doesn't mean there will not be in 2017. If you look at the tens of thousands of Level III chargers Nissan is installing in Europe by 2015, we could have every interstate connedted easily even if we are 2 years behind them. Now, they may assume our busineses and political system will be backward-thinking enough to put us farther behind than that, but it is unlikely we will be without any national charging infrastructure six years from now.
      2 Wheeled Menace
      • 3 Years Ago
      Is this your company, Eric Loveday? you seem to be the only person on the autoblog staff posting these. By the way these are pretty lame. Take 1-2 years of data, extrapolate, and there's your report ....
        krisztiant
        • 3 Years Ago
        @2 Wheeled Menace
        2WM, naturally ABG could "take 1-2 years of data, extrapolate, and then there comes their report", but that's not really the point here. AutoblogGreen (nomen est omen) is a blog, which "obsessively covers all environmentally-friendly (or egregiously unfriendly) car news." Thus, they have to fill the site frequently with fresh content, covering wide spectrum of "green automotive" news to attract the utmost readers / fans / page views (sort of AOL Way) while remaining impartial (if possible at all). Producing editorials, reviews, extensive polls / research / in-depth analysis, undisguised opinion journalism (etc) are pretty time consuming, and what is more, kinda dangerous too ("scares away" certain parts of the readership). Most blogs leave this "dirty work" to specialized professional sources (in this case: Pike Research) 'cause that's way faster than Do It Yourself + safer too, since if you don't agree, you have to contend with a third party entity (in a galaxy far, far away), so they 'couldn't care less'. *in a nutshell
      2 Wheeled Menace
      • 3 Years Ago
      Kris: yeah, that does make sense. Commenters 'finish' the article indeed. but guess who takes in the ad revenue? I notice that a lot of online blogs are going this way and i've gradually stopped reading. I find myself getting into the comments rather than the article. That's really not how it should be.
      krisztiant
      • 3 Years Ago
      I hear ya 2WM and get your points. But AutoBlog+ABG (just like e.g. Engadget etc.) has a business model, setting strict guidelines about Content, Product, Media Engineering, and Revenue Management (something like The AOL Way). If you're interested, you can check it out here in great details: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-aol-way#-1 In common terms: AB(G) business model primarily is focusing on profitable content production. It needs to push some content - no matter what - in about every half an hour to seize readers on the site. Its target market is just about anybody, so they have to balance between deep and shallow reporting to be "good enough" for almost everybody (maximizing revenue). E.g. for you, most of the time it's naturally not enough, but they assume, you will broaden your knowledge by clicking on the sources or visiting other sites, which don't have that kind of strong pressure of providing frequent content, so they can dig deeper towards niche readers. (Like the ones you mentioned). Also, very apparent "policy " (ABG): the articles - all in all some paragraph - are not really "ready" as is, but "we the people" (commenters) "finish" them (by comments) and sort of make them complete sometimes in a very far fetched way (like now), but it makes no difference from the business model's angle. And that is all for now: Peace out folks ;)
      Letstakeawalk
      • 3 Years Ago
      Thanks for explaining why 2WM's whinging is pointless and annoying! Blogs gotta have info...