Internal combustion engines (ICEs) are improving rapidly and their ability to cut CO2 emissions at lower-than-expected costs will continue to make them the auto industry's dominant powertrain technology over the next decade. According to new Boston Consulting Group report entitled, "Powering Autos to 2020: The Era of the Electric Car?," automakers should be able to meet 2020 emissions targets mainly by applying advanced technologies to conventional ICEs – they won't be forced to resort to electric cars.
ICE technologies could potentially slash CO2 emissions by around 40 percent at a cost to consumers of $50 to $60 per percentage point of reduction ($2,000 to $2,400 for a 40 percent reduction in emissions) for passenger vehicles, says BCG. But automakers will need to focus on further innovations in combustion technologies, transmissions, lightweight materials and aerodynamics to meet 2020 emissions targets.
BCG's report concludes that:
Come 2020, BCG argues that gasolineand diesel-powered vehicles will continue to dominate.Electric cars will undoubtedly play an increasingly large role in many countries' plans in the decades ahead as energy independence and environmental concerns intensify. But they will gain only modest ground to 2020.
[Source: Edmunds Auto Observer]