• Jan 21st 2011 at 2:56PM
  • 25
In case you wanted more verbal assurances that Tesla Motors is indeed still working on an all-electric SUV based on the Model S platform, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has got you covered. A few months ago, Musk said that a prototype of the SUV, called the Model X, will be unveiled toward the end of 2011 (see it on video here). At the Cleantech Investor Summit in Palm Springs, CA this week, Musk humbly said that the Model X will be "cooler" than any SUV or minivan on the market, according to GigaOM. Even better, for those of us who don't have Tesla money in our accounts, in about four years, the automaker will have developed a "mainstream," $30,000 car. Ahh, the fabled Bluestar. Better late than never.

GigaOM described Musk's enthusiasm for electric cars this way:

As far as how fast EVs will become mainstream Musk had some pretty aggressive predictions going. By 2020 it'll be dirt cheap to have a long range vehicle battery, said Musk. By 2030, the only cars sold in America will be electric cars, and by midcentury the vast majority of cars on the road will be electric, said Musk.


[Source: GigaOM]


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  • 25 Comments
      • 4 Years Ago
      David,
      after thinking about it 2, 1/2 cycles must be about equal to 1 full cycle----That's why the battery in EV40's is around twice as big as req'd--ie Volt pack=16 kwh but only uses around 10 of it.
        • 4 Years Ago
        Actually, two half cycles stresses the battery less than one full "deep discharge" cycle, so it will actually last longer with many shallow cycles. Exactly how much longer is difficult to determine.
      • 4 Years Ago
      Take us there Elon! I hope his company is around to make this happen and enjoy it.
        patelc0916
        • 4 Years Ago
        I can't help but to think Tesla's contract with Toyota for an all electric RAV4 will somehow help Tesla's Model X... I am just curious to see where and how (platform, suspension components, interior setup, all wheel drive, etc.)

      • 4 Years Ago
      I am pretty suspicious of the life of the commodity batteries Tesla use - replacing them would not be cheap.
      Their attacking Nissan over the passive cooling of their batteries evades the issue of their own battery life expectancy.
        bajohn3
        • 4 Years Ago
        They key to Tesla pack life may be the large size of the pack. That means for most driving the cells will be short cycled, which significantly increases cycle life. A cell that gets 500 cycles at 100% DOD might do 2000 cycles at 50% DOD.
        • 4 Years Ago
        I think most people have unwarranted fear of the batteries.

        Tesla's cells may be commodity, but they are proven for what they do. And Tesla's BMS and Thermal management is engineered to make up for any of the shortcomings of those cheaper cells.

        Nissan may not actually NEED thermal management at all. Since they have more engineering experience with automotive batteries and are using a very durable chemistry.

        • 4 Years Ago
        @John,
        Yeah, the big battery pack will help. My view is that Tesla have done a good job of working around batteries which are fundamentally poorly adapted for use in a car, and that their paradigm of using commodity batteries will not last long as prismatic large batteries get cheaper and in better supply.
        Toshiba, for instance, although they produce their marvellous SCiB battery in the 18650 commodity form factor are producing others specifically designed for use in cars, in fact in different variants for hybrids and for EV's
        Tesla have done a good job in putting a gloss on their choices which were in fact forced on them by costs and availability at the time of design.
        • 4 Years Ago
        How many Tesla battery failures are you aware of?
        • 4 Years Ago
        Tesla have done a good job of wiring up the batteries so that any duff units do not stop the whole battery working.
        My understanding though is that the batteries are only rated for around a 3-4 year life in a car.
        I will be delighted if this is incorrect.
      • 4 Years Ago
      I'm not a fan of this pandering to the eco ignorant crowd. SUVs are anti intelligence. selling EVs to the ignorant at double the price. will they buy that. will they understand the merit..

      I still think lean is the key to electric viability. ICE is only 1 of 3 things wrong with conventional vehicles. mass and aerodynamics too. why stop at the one.

      I think this indifference will kill Tesla but will be interesting to see what will happen. But I don't think Tesla will really matter if they never go lean so electric drive can shine. It doesn't shine in a heavy clumsy wasteful vehicle. It might still be cool but that indifference will cost you. And I expect it will cost Tesla's life.

      sigh when will someone do the obvious.. how can it escape the entire world
        • 4 Years Ago
        If you think that entire world is wrong and you are right, it is time to consider that maybe it is you that is wrong and world is right.
        • 4 Years Ago
        Timo, there are a few people who understand that what I say is true but there are only so many in the world doing cars and not one is doing it right. that's just the way it is. it really isn't me who should change.
      • 4 Years Ago
      What the world needs now -
      -

      Another SUV
      • 4 Years Ago
      Look guys,,, the thing is we don't have the data on Panasonic's new 3. 2 ( or is it 3.6 ah cell.) In order to make a decision on the issue you must have this data. Panasonic's new cell is probably pretty trick in term's of kwh/lb.....but we don't know how many cycles. Having a bigger baterry helps cuz it keeps down the cycles.

      Sooooooo-
      Anyone got the cycle data ?? I have not found it on Panasonics web site (probably for good reason)).

      and PS don't call it a COMMODITY battery. The advanced chemistry comes out first in 18650 format.!!
        • 4 Years Ago
        Thx for the article David. Stupid math says that means you need a pack big enough to go 200 miles between charges which is about the size of Tesla's pack. But the other thing I don't know is a half charge cycle is as bad as a full charge cycle as most people won't go the full 200 miles, they will store the car full up I would think and recharge after 50-100 miles.

        I have heard from another battery guy (Herm) that it is total ions passed that counts ie 2 half charges are equal to 1. If that is true (????) then one could live w/ 500 cycles in a very large pack.
        • 4 Years Ago
      • 4 Years Ago
      If Mr. Musk is correct when can we declare that the war against western civilization is over? If the demand for OIl substantially disapears in 20 years, and clean Fusion arrives in 25, then we will have only a Millenia worth of OIl left at the present consumption rate. Or maybe 10,000 years worth at the rate we will be consuming it in a mere score of years.

      When electricity is abundant and non polluting and most important inexpensive, desalinating the Oceans will supply all the water we need to irrigate the desert Southwest, desert Austalia, and the Sahara, providing food for all.

      What can the proponents of leftist totalitarianism like Mr. Hansen and Mr. Chomsky, religious believers in the mythos of the 'Noble Savage', dream up to scare us about the end the world then?
      • 4 Years Ago
      I agree, the laws Of Physics and economics will prevail. The only kind car sold in twenty years time will be electric or electric hybrid.
        • 4 Years Ago
        maybe what he was getting at about the laws of physics is that when you have an old technology that is ~25% efficient, and a new technology that is ~90% efficient, the economics eventually fall into place.
        • 4 Years Ago
        physics has nothing to do with any of this.

        This is simply trickle down economics.
      • 4 Years Ago
      Is he trolling the mythical 'Zap-X' with his Model X name? Well done, sir (if that is true).

      I find those EV predictions a bit over-optimistic but it is job to be very optimistic on EVs.

      In four years we can have a $30,000 mainstream car? Well the Leaf today . . . ?
        • 4 Years Ago
        I suspect that the $30K Tesla will be better looking and have longer range than today's Nissan Leaf - but what will the 2015 Leaf be like? Improvement is certain. Choosing between the two might be a very tough decision 4 years from now!
      • 4 Years Ago
      "Better late than never."

      Really? The bluestar is not "late". It has never before been given a date. The Roadster was about a year late. The model S is looking to be a few months late. But in the automotive world. That is right on time.
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