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2010 Toyota Prius – Click above for high-res image gallery

Though we are currently enjoying our gasoline at the bargain-basement price of only $2.72, it may not stay that way for long. According to Automotive Lease Guide (ALG), gas prices will hit a average of $4.13 by 2013. ALG predicts future gasoline prices to help determine vehicle residual values, which are partially calculated with fuel efficiency and gas prices in mind. As ALG chief economist Matt Traylen explains:
Gasoline prices are a key driver of resale values at the segment level. Despite the recent drop in oil and gas prices, we are maintaining our long-term gas price forecast of over $4 per gallon in 2013.
If gasoline prices top the $4 mark, we can expect to see demand increase for both mid-compacts and hybrids, coupled with a sharp decrease in desire for gargantuan luxury SUVs like the Cadillac Escalade, Lincoln Navigator and others. According to ALG, mid-compacts will see a 9.3 percent jump in residual value and a 29 percent increase in auction value, if gasoline hits the projected $4.13. Hybrids are expected to see similar gains as well. Rising prices will prove problematic for owners of large SUVs, though, which are expected to see a 7.4 percent drop in residual and 20 percent decrease in auction value, indicating that unloading one of those behemoths is probably gonna cost ya. We're not certain that gas will reach that mark, but let's not forget that it's come awful close before.



[Source: Automotive Lease Guide (PDF)]


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    • 1 Second Ago
  • 13 Comments
      • 5 Years Ago
      At least my Fit will have a good resale value when I'm ready to buy electric, assuming one that has a 300 mile range and costs around $25k exists in 5-7 years
      • 5 Years Ago
      No shocker here.

      When the recession fades ( if ever .... ), used lots will be full of SUVs and dealers will be gouging for Honda Civics again.

      rinse, repeat
      • 5 Years Ago
      Sounds about right to me. The really steep rise in price won't hit until 2015.
      • 5 Years Ago
      peak oil cometh. only the recession has delayed it for a time. it already hit hard just before the recession hit at 150$ per barrell. one might say it was suspiciously convenient. but it will return
        • 5 Years Ago
        Actually, it turns out that was due to American speculation on the price of oil.

        Basically, more evil from wall street .

        We're using about the same amount of gas these days and it is still half the price here in the USA. It was $5/gal when it peaked.. $2.60/gal where i live now.

        Not a supply problem ...
        • 5 Years Ago
        Lestakeawalk and I invest in commodities. I invested $40 in oil this morning from AM/PM the broker let me buy it for 2.69 per gallon for regular. For every ten dollars I burn in oil I charge my customer $100. I put the owner of Exxon's kids through college. I make money by burning oil, I like making money but I do not like the burning of oil. I realy don't like my job but like getting paid when I am done.

        4 dollars is just one more than 3, their, I did the math.
        • 5 Years Ago
        If you really think there's not an oil supply problem you are dreaming. Conventional oil (you know the cheap stuff) has essentially been flat for FIVE years - use Google. When speculators speculate they are not all following the herd, a substantial portion must be speculating on a real belief that fundamentals will drive the price up in the future, and so it did until the credit ran out, and then bang, recession. You'll see.
      • 5 Years Ago
      That's a surprise.
      I thought gas prices would go down and stay down permanently.

      Oh no, wait......
      • 5 Years Ago
      $4.13 sounds optimistic, especially if drilling in the gulf gets the axe...
      • 5 Years Ago
      gas is well over $4/gallon currently in canada, and it hasn't slowed suv sales. people simply get used to paying $1.10/L for gas. Unless the rise is sharp, ie overnight, people just adjust.
        • 5 Years Ago
        Places with high petrol prices drive more economic cars. Maybe not so much in Canada, but if you compare say, Europe and Japan, with the US then the trend is clear.
        Prosperity means bigger cars within that general trend though, so for instance the Germans on average drive bigger cars than the Italians.
        There are a lot of SUVs bought on the fake prosperity of the great asset price inflation we have just had in the UK, the sales for which seem likely to drop fast with harder economic times and still higher petrol prices.
        • 5 Years Ago
        Yeah.. never underestimate the expendable income of the white man ;P
        • 5 Years Ago
        It is more about the derivative of gas prices. "Change over time"

        How fast the prices rise is what scares people... and is what makes people go broke.

        If gasoline price rose gradually over time, like Canada, Europe, etc. Then the percieved cost of living increases along with it. And businesses must raise wages.

        Usually, cost of living is balanced by some other factor. But if gas prices were lower overall, then wages would be equally lower.

        -----------------

        However, rising 25% over the course of one summer is a huge shock. And wages don't react that quickly, so many people had problems paying at the pump.

        Which is the reason so many people traded in for hybrids and compacts during that time. Hybrids still use gasoline, but they save a large "percentage" at the pump.

        ***************
        PHEVs and BEVs will not use gasoline so the savings follow 100% of gasoline price per gallon minus electricity price per kwh (which is very stable even during oil shocks). So the savings for switching to a "plug in" is much better than a simple percentage such as a mild hybrid.

        So even if gasoline prices climb at a slow rate.... the savings are better.
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