Some new voices pronouncing predictions of peak oil have distinctly Arabic accents. Researchers from the University of Kuwait with the Kuwait Oil Company have published a new study titled Forecasting World Crude Oil Production Using Multicyclic Hubbert Model (abstract here) that names 2014 as the fateful year when conventional crude oil production will peak. That's pretty close to the 2015 date chosen by Sir Branson and his taskforce pals.
The Kuwaitis arrive at their conclusion via an updated version of the Hubbert model that uses additional production cycles that consider political situations, new finds, technical innovation and other factors. Their world model is derived from an amalgamation of the individual models of 47 producer countries.

While there are surely those who would disagree with their findings, it is a possibility that should not be ignored. If demand continues on its upward trend, those more optimistic forecasts for future electric vehicle sales may prove accurate.

[Source: Miss Electric / MSNBC]


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