By the Numbers - October 2009: Green is Growing Edition
by John Neff on Nov 3rd 2009 at 6:39PM 
Hyundai, Kia and Subaru all report +40% increase in sales
If you've been paying attention to recent editions of By the Numbers, you'll have noticed that the amount of green on our chart below is growing. Month after month, more and more brands and manufacturers are managing to produce sales numbers that exceed the same month last year.
For October 2009, the list is topped by three familiar players: Hyundai (+49%), Kia (+45%) and Subaru (+41%). The South Koreans and this lone Japanese brand have bucked the trend all year, and now that other brands are beginning to sell relatively well, they are distancing themselves from the pack even further.
Their success shouldn't overshadow the rest of the industry, though, which includes many players surprisingly high on our chart. All four "Core" brands of General Motors (Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac and GMC) posted positive numbers, and GM as a whole, which still counts sales from "non-Core" brands like Hummer, Pontiac, Saab and Saturn, managed to post a 4.1% gain in sales. Likewise, the Ford brand (+3.6%) and Ford Motor Company (+3%) both reported sales gains versus October of last year. The rest of the big Japanese manufacturers, meanwhile, were close behind but didn't quite manage to earn a green cell this month, while the Chrysler Group LLC landed farthest off the mark with a drop of 30.4%.
Have industry sales turned the corner? Are we headed into a bright future of 14+ million sales per year and green cells for every automaker? Hardly, though it's increasingly clear that new product, being competitive in key segments, and creative marketing and incentives are the best recipe for climbing out of the red.
*Brands and companies are both displayed in descending order according to their percentage change in volume sales. There were 28 selling days in October 2009 and 27 selling days in October 2008, so the change in monthly sales volume will be different than the change in the average daily sales rate (DSR) for each brand/company.If you've been paying attention to recent editions of By the Numbers, you'll have noticed that the amount of green on our chart below is growing. Month after month, more and more brands and manufacturers are managing to produce sales numbers that exceed the same month last year. For October 2009, the list is topped by three familiar players: Hyundai (+49%), Kia (+45%) and Subaru (+41%). The South Koreans and this lone Japanese brand have bucked the trend all year, and now that other brands are beginning to sell relatively well, they are distancing themselves from the pack even further.
Their success shouldn't overshadow the rest of the industry, though, which includes many players surprisingly high on our chart. All four "Core" brands of General Motors (Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac and GMC) posted positive numbers, and GM as a whole, which still counts sales from "non-Core" brands like Hummer, Pontiac, Saab and Saturn, managed to post a 4.1% gain in sales. Likewise, the Ford brand (+3.6%) and Ford Motor Company (+3%) both reported sales gains versus October of last year. The rest of the big Japanese manufacturers, meanwhile, were close behind but didn't quite manage to earn a green cell this month, while the Chrysler Group LLC landed farthest off the mark with a drop of 30.4%.
Have industry sales turned the corner? Are we headed into a bright future of 14+ million sales per year and green cells for every automaker? Hardly, though it's increasingly clear that new product, being competitive in key segments, and creative marketing and incentives are the best recipe for climbing out of the red.
| Brand | Volume % | 10/09 | 10/08 | DSR*% | DSR 10/09 | DSR 10/08 |
| Hyundai | 48.92 | 31,005 | 20,820 | 43.60 | 1,107 | 771 |
| Kia | 45.26 | 22,490 | 15,483 | 40.07 | 803 | 573 |
| Subaru | 40.66 | 18,169 | 12,917 | 35.64 | 649 | 478 |
| Cadillac | 21.60 | 11,602 | 9,541 | 17.26 | 414 | 353 |
| Mercedes-Benz | 21.32 | 18,193 | 14,996 | 16.99 | 650 | 555 |
| GMC | 20.44 | 25,423 | 21,109 | 16.14 | 908 | 782 |
| Lexus | 19.77 | 19,502 | 16,283 | 15.49 | 697 | 603 |
| Volvo | 19.37 | 4,437 | 3,717 | 15.11 | 158 | 138 |
| Buick | 18.46 | 9,053 | 7,642 | 14.23 | 323 | 283 |
| Porsche | 15.07 | 1,642 | 1,427 | 10.96 | 59 | 53 |
| Chevrolet | 8.50 | 116,436 | 107,313 | 4.63 | 4,158 | 3,975 |
| Nissan | 7.69 | 53,664 | 49,833 | 3.84 | 1,917 | 1,846 |
| Volkswagen | 7.23 | 17,037 | 15,889 | 3.40 | 608 | 588 |
| Ford | 3.57 | 119,072 | 114,969 | -0.13 | 4,253 | 4,258 |
| Honda | -0.01 | 75,751 | 75,756 | -3.58 | 2,705 | 2,806 |
| Mercury | -1.14 | 6,676 | 6,753 | -4.67 | 238 | 250 |
| Audi | -1.14 | 7,358 | 7,443 | -4.67 | 263 | 276 |
| Toyota | -2.32 | 132,663 | 135,818 | -5.81 | 4,738 | 5,030 |
| Acura | -3.53 | 9,751 | 10,108 | -6.98 | 348 | 374 |
| Lincoln | -8.97 | 6,735 | 7,399 | -12.23 | 241 | 274 |
| Infiniti | -9.29 | 6,451 | 7,112 | -12.53 | 230 | 263 |
| Pontiac | -18.45 | 10,646 | 13,054 | -21.36 | 380 | 483 |
| BMW | -18.61 | 16,443 | 20,203 | -21.52 | 587 | 748 |
| Mini | -20.79 | 4,176 | 5,272 | -23.62 | 149 | 195 |
| Dodge | -22.21 | 26,265 | 33,763 | -24.99 | 938 | 1250 |
| Chrysler | -35.61 | 12,815 | 19,903 | -37.91 | 458 | 737 |
| Jeep | -36.80 | 13,500 | 21,360 | -39.05 | 482 | 791 |
| Mitsubishi | -48.34 | 3,867 | 7,486 | -50.19 | 138 | 277 |
| Suzuki | -49.89 | 1,745 | 3,482 | -51.67 | 62 | 129 |
| Saturn | -57.79 | 3,623 | 8,583 | -59.30 | 129 | 318 |
| Smart | -70.44 | 661 | 2,236 | -71.49 | 24 | 83 |
| Saab | -74.03 | 513 | 1,975 | -74.95 | 18 | 73 |
| Hummer | -77.56 | 307 | 1,368 | -78.36 | 11 | 51 |
| Mazda | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| COMPANIES | ||||||
| General Motors | 4.11 | 177,603 | 170,585 | 0.40 | 6,343 | 6,318 |
| Ford Motor Company | 3.07 | 136,920 | 132,838 | -0.61 | 4,890 | 4,920 |
| Nissan NA | 0.28 | 60,115 | 59,945 | -3.30 | 2,147 | 2,220 |
| Toyota Mo Co | 0.04 | 152,165 | 152,101 | -3.53 | 5,434 | 5,633 |
| American Honda | -0.42 | 85,502 | 85,864 | -3.98 | 3,054 | 3,180 |
| BMW Group | -19.06 | 20,619 | 25,475 | -21.95 | 736 | 944 |
| Chrysler Group LLC | -30.39 | 65,803 | 94,530 | -32.88 | 2,350 | 3,501 |
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 5)
two4zerosx 6:43PM (11/03/2009)
VERY surprised to see Caddy, GMC, Buick and Chevy up there like that.
Reply
alex 7:01PM (11/03/2009)
what's even more surprising is that chevy's retail sales are up 31%. astounding!
John H. 10:15PM (11/03/2009)
Keep in mind Oct 2008 (170k) was well down from Oct 2007 (311k). If you have a low enough comparison point, you can do a bit better.
alex 10:37PM (11/03/2009)
man that argument about how poorly they did last year is getting old and it doesn't even make sense. when someone says "hey look, GM is doing x% better than last year" they mean just that... better than last year. not best ever. not even near the best ever. just better than last year. and then people like you come in and say "yeah but they aren't REALLY doing better than last year, because last year they were so much worse!"
yeah that makes sense.
the4thheat 11:39PM (11/03/2009)
No there is a point in mentioning it since even though all the car companies are doing "better" they're all still in a ton of trouble if sales don't seriously improve. October 2008 was when the entire global economy was in a state of meltdown so while it's good that things may have improved slightly everyone is still in serious trouble.
BMW must be really hurting though.
John 4:58AM (11/04/2009)
I wouldn't get too excited about GM's numbers. As Edmunds reported, GM had the largest incentives of all manufacturers in 10/09 and they were selling a high percentage of 2009 cars. Ford on the other hand had a far lower incentive level and sold almost all 2010 models.
GM therefore should be back where they belong in the red in November.
NS 11:27AM (11/04/2009)
@John - Why would you ever want GM to be in the red? Go back to your tea party, disillusioned friends await.
tbss_in_the_D 6:47PM (11/03/2009)
Wow that is all I have to say...
Reply
John H. 10:38PM (11/03/2009)
Overall, this month seems to confirm trends that have been building for the past several months, C4C notwithstanding:
- Subaru leading the pack
- VW/Audi continuing to pull away from BMW
- GM slowly gaining back share based on product quality
- Chrylser circling the drain like the turds they sell
- Ford easily outperforming both of their competitors
- Hyundai / Kia making up the difference among those who can't afford something nicer
The only anomaly is that Oct 2008 was the first big drop in sales, so
John 5:55AM (11/04/2009)
I think the picture of the auto industry's pain is a lot clearer when you look out a little further than one year, such as the the 3-year rolling average for each month. The drop for October compared to the last 3 years for the Japanese and BMW range from -15% to -19.4%. Not too bad.
Among the big 3, Ford is the best of the worse with a -23.8% drop compared to the average October. Clearly feeling the hurt a lot more than the foreign competitors, but headed in the right direction.
GM is worse off than Ford at -31.9% and Chrysler is off the chart at -50.6%.
John H. 11:52AM (11/04/2009)
I have a 30-month sales chart of the majors. It is unbelievable how far Chrysler has fallen.
When you look at the majors, normalized from a couple years ago, everybody moves more-or-less as a group (Subaru, Hyundai/Kia, VW/Audi are pulling up and away).
Except Chrysler.
Chrysler has been falling away for more than 6 months, and that trend is *accelerating* recently. Based on the last few months trend, Chrysler will be in Chapter 7 in 6 months.
Tourian 6:48PM (11/03/2009)
So all of GM's brands posted gains, after C4C is long over, without big fleet sales, without big rebates, and after several new product launches? All positive things. I'm popping my popcorn now, can't wait to read what they haters come up with in the face of all this win.
Reply
dbag 7:17PM (11/03/2009)
How's this? During August and September 2008, GM was running their "employee pricing for everyone" promotion. Then a bomb was dropped on the economy. That combination means GM's October 2008 sales were absolutely miserable. So GM sales last month don't look to bad when compared if they are measured against a really low standard.
That being said, considering they have 3 fewer divisions, their sales aren't really too bad. Instead of comparing to last years sales, I'd like to see sales compared to last month and the change in their market share.
Yaroukh 7:30PM (11/03/2009)
Without big rebates you say? What is the crucial difference between big incentive and big rebate? :)
daleam 8:35PM (11/03/2009)
dbag: EVERYBODY'S sales were miserable last October. How about this: GM is STILL the number one selling car company in the US and Ford is crawling up Toyota's ass. You can't spin this into something bad because it isn't.
Yaroukh 8:43PM (11/03/2009)
@daleam: This is like bragging about winning a marathon after you took a bus to get to the finish line.
daleam 8:49PM (11/03/2009)
More euphemisms, wow...
dbag 9:48PM (11/03/2009)
Sure, everyones were bad that month, which is why there is more green this month than there has been for a long time. However, because GM blew there wad the two previous months and pulled forward a lot of sales with their employee pricing plan, their Oct '08 sales were notibly worse than ALL the other big manufacturers - Oct 08 vs. Oct 07 - General Motors: -45.1%; Ford: -30.2%; Chrysler: -34.9%; Toyota: -23%; Honda: -25.2%; Nissan: -33%. So they are boasting that there sales last month were 4.11% better than one of their historically worst performances ever. If they had not had the employee pricing giveaway the prior months, it is probably safe to say sales for 10/08 would have been at least 4% better, and today they would be on the red side of the board.
Yaroukh 10:03PM (11/03/2009)
Wow, seems like some readers do not like my analogy.
So here's another take.
You collapse during a marathon. Obviously they call a medic to take care of you, he drives you in his ambulance to the finish line. Well, $hit happens, but we're glad you're OK now.
After you get up you brag about getting there first hence winning the race.
Is it better now, honest GM fans? :))
alex 10:18PM (11/03/2009)
I don't think anyone is bragging about how gm is the car maker in the best health... To use your analogy, it's more like they collapsed during the marathon and people are saying "hey, look at that... They got back up and kept running... And at a decent clip too!" while the haters are still arguing over which hospital to send them to