REPORT: J.D. Power predicts October car sales will be down just 6%
October is coming to a close, which means we're within a few days of getting the J.D. Power is predicting that October 2009 sales come in at an annualized rate of 10.3 million units, down from last October's rate of 10.8 million cars and trucks sold. JDP's Gary Dilts goes out of his way to tell Reuters not to start celebrating over the single digit declines, but he does express some optimism adding that "improvements in consumer confidence and credit are propelling the return to positive sales gains relative to last year."
Deutsche Bank is even more optimistic about October, predicting annualized sales of 10.7 million for the month; just a fraction below last October's results. Even though the predicted sales drop of only six percent seems a bit deceiving, it does offer some hope to automakers. After months of uncertainty over just how low sales can go, it is starting to look like the worst of the auto sales decline may be behind us. Maybe.
[Source: Reuters]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Yaroukh 9:39AM (10/27/2009)
Edmunds expects GM to pick some market-share.
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dukeisduke 9:48AM (10/27/2009)
But what were October, 2008's sales? Weren't they in the tank already, or did that start in November?
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Matt 9:56AM (10/27/2009)
Chrysler and Ford were down ~35%...GM was down 45%.
So that "down just 6%" hurts a lot more.
audi_arena 10:18AM (10/27/2009)
Ding ding ding!! We have a winner!
zamafir 12:26PM (10/27/2009)
yup. but we have a short memory here so it seems oh so impressive :).
John H. 2:39PM (10/27/2009)
The downturn started in August-September, and October 2008 was the first full month of things moving south, with November as the low water mark for 2008.
October 2009 being down from 2008 is not good news at all, because it means that things haven't even bottomed out for the year (November is usually the slowest month for car sales).
Besides, October 2008 was down 32% from 2007. It's phantom progress comparing with a low number.
Matt 9:54AM (10/27/2009)
"Just 6%"??
That's like a doctor saying "we're just removing one of your limbs..."
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TKE 10:05AM (10/27/2009)
Good point @dukeisduke. Not a single manufacturer was able to produce better sales this September than they did in September of 2007. Only Audi and Mini were able to do so last October. So sales WERE already way down last October. It's hard for them to be down double digits year-over-year with '08 - that would mean WAY WAY WAY down compared with Oct. of '07. (http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2008/11/american-auto-sales-for-october-2008.html)
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Luis 10:10AM (10/27/2009)
Oh, but, but...Cash 4 Clunkers was ROBBING sales away from the future!!! That Socialist/Fascist/Na$i/Communist/Kenyan takeover of our soul will destroy the very real free-market that we have and the utter foundation of our Great, Free Country!
Oh but we forget that many people would most likely still be driving those clunkers if not for C4C, and how many people put off buying a car because Congress was debating a car-buying stimulus for months. We seem to forget about all that in a lame attempt to demonize the Democrats and the overall successful C4C program.
FWIW autosales will likely take many many years to reach the unsustainable bubble of 17M/year, and that's probably a good thing, as those sales mostly rested upon people increasing their debt-load.
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Brian 10:18AM (10/27/2009)
Luis, you ignorant moron, October 2008 was an AWFUL year for car sales. We should be UP, not down AT ALL.
The U.S. economy is in big trouble thanks to Hopey's policies. Double digit unemployment, big spending, higher taxes.....we're getting sick of it. Just wait until 2012, lib.
Luis 10:25AM (10/27/2009)
I can't wait for 2012, 4 more years will be sweet.
Brian 10:30AM (10/27/2009)
Republicans are already winning this year in New Jersey and Virginia....we're sick of lib socialist policies.
CHANGE is coming....
Brian05SEL 10:34AM (10/27/2009)
^ You forgot to mention the New World Order's hand in C4C and to repeat "we, the people" a few times for good measure.
/sarcasm
Oh, and then there's the REAL reason for that program; to pile up thousands of cars in junkyards to help conceal the black helicopters when they finally land. (no joke; I got that one last month from a birther's chain e-mail!)
In all seriousness, it's good to see more clear signs (hopefully; we'll see once the Oct. sales come out) that this crappy economy is truly beginning to turn around.
Brian 10:36AM (10/27/2009)
The economy isn't turning around. Unemployment continues to sky rocket.
George Will pointed out that even if we return to the levels of job creation we had in the 1990s (VERY unlikely) unemployment won't be down to 5% again (where it was in December 2007) until 2017.
Aprime 11:37AM (10/27/2009)
lol Brian is a republican.
loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool
Brian 11:59AM (10/27/2009)
I'm a CONSERVATIVE.
MarcT 6:36PM (10/27/2009)
Luis, your point is extremely valid.
The biggest legitimate fear anyone could have had about C4C was that it would all be a waste of money if it only pulled sales forward. If this happened, it only appears to have lasted just one month, and even September sales weren't all that much of a letdown. So much for pulling sales forward. C4C gave a quick shot in the arm to an ailing industry that seems to have been just what the dr ordered. Instead of SARs in th 9 million range, we're now expecting 10.3-10.7 Another million and a half vehicles sold. Not bad for a measly 4 billion bucks. (Maybe someone whose calculator has more digits than mine can tell me how much money $25,000 x 1.5 million vehicles is. A lot more than $4b, I would bet.)
Brian 10:19AM (10/27/2009)
BTW, GM is still going down the drain as a zombie company, and the Ford Death Watch continues.....
I notice not even you Detroit fanbois bother to defend Chrysler anymore!
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Avinash machado 10:32AM (10/27/2009)
You never give up Ford bashing,do you? I guess you and Matt are twins and live in the same basement.
Brian 10:38AM (10/27/2009)
Don't worry, I hate Government Motors even more than Ford.