Autoline on Autoblog with John McElroy
Hybrids Stumble While Diesels Surge
The new-car sales figures for June must be a cause for concern for fans of hybrids. But at the same time they're very encouraging for diesel proponents. You don't want to read too much into one month's sales numbers, but the numbers do tell a story.
Ever since gasoline prices tumbled from their highs of last year, sales of hybrids have tumbled along with them. And while most automakers are shunning diesel engines right now, Volkswagen turned in sales numbers in June that should make everybody sit up and pay attention.
So, are we going to see a battle royale between hybrids and diesels? It's too early to tell, but here's what's going on in the market at this snapshot in time.
____________________________________________________________________________________
John McElroy is host of the TV program "Autoline Detroit" and daily web video "Autoline Daily". Every week he brings his unique insights as an auto industry insider to Autoblog readers.
____________________________________________________________________________________
For example, Lexus only sold 31 units of the LS hybrid last month. Chevrolet only sold 84 units of the Silverado two-mode hybrid. Nissan sold 666 units of its Altima hybrid. These are ridiculously low numbers.
And I'm not just cherry picking the worst examples. The hybrid market really isn't going anywhere. Hybrids still only account for 3% of all car sales and the Prius still accounts for half of them. Take the Prius out, and hybrid sales are truly inconsequential.
Meanwhile, almost every automaker has postponed plans to bring out diesel engines. GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda and Nissan all have smaller displacement diesels that are ready to go, but have been put on the back burner for now.
Mercedes, BMW, Audi and VW are the only ones really pushing diesels in the American market, and as the June sales report shows, VW has quite a story to tell.
That was for only one month of sales and one month does not a sales trend make. But those numbers have to be mighty encouraging to the people who are pushing for diesels.
Of course, diesel prices have fallen along with gas prices. And both those prices will definitely fluctuate in the future. But this shows how fuel prices have an extraordinary effect on the type of technology that will sell in the showrooms. Indeed, it shows the trouble automakers will have meeting fuel economy standards since they are at the mercy of a determining factor that is completely out of their control.
Autoline Detroit
Airs every Sunday at 10:30AM on Detroit Public Television.
Autoline Detroit Podcast
Click here to subscribe in iTunes
Follow Autoline on Twitter for ongoing updates every day!
The new-car sales figures for June must be a cause for concern for fans of hybrids. But at the same time they're very encouraging for diesel proponents. You don't want to read too much into one month's sales numbers, but the numbers do tell a story.Ever since gasoline prices tumbled from their highs of last year, sales of hybrids have tumbled along with them. And while most automakers are shunning diesel engines right now, Volkswagen turned in sales numbers in June that should make everybody sit up and pay attention.
So, are we going to see a battle royale between hybrids and diesels? It's too early to tell, but here's what's going on in the market at this snapshot in time.
____________________________________________________________________________________
John McElroy is host of the TV program "Autoline Detroit" and daily web video "Autoline Daily". Every week he brings his unique insights as an auto industry insider to Autoblog readers.
____________________________________________________________________________________
The hybrid market really isn't going anywhere.
The number of hybrids in the market keeps growing and growing, but there are more losers than winners. There are now 23 different models of hybrids in the American market. But most of them are turkeys that are selling very poorly. For example, Lexus only sold 31 units of the LS hybrid last month. Chevrolet only sold 84 units of the Silverado two-mode hybrid. Nissan sold 666 units of its Altima hybrid. These are ridiculously low numbers.
And I'm not just cherry picking the worst examples. The hybrid market really isn't going anywhere. Hybrids still only account for 3% of all car sales and the Prius still accounts for half of them. Take the Prius out, and hybrid sales are truly inconsequential.
Meanwhile, almost every automaker has postponed plans to bring out diesel engines. GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda and Nissan all have smaller displacement diesels that are ready to go, but have been put on the back burner for now.
Mercedes, BMW, Audi and VW are the only ones really pushing diesels in the American market, and as the June sales report shows, VW has quite a story to tell.
Last month, diesels accounted for 80 percent of Jetta Sportwagen sales.
Last month, diesels accounted for 80 percent of Jetta Sportwagen sales, 40 percent of Jetta Sedan sales, and nearly 30 percent of Touareg sales. Overall, diesels accounted for over a quarter of VW sales last month.That was for only one month of sales and one month does not a sales trend make. But those numbers have to be mighty encouraging to the people who are pushing for diesels.
Of course, diesel prices have fallen along with gas prices. And both those prices will definitely fluctuate in the future. But this shows how fuel prices have an extraordinary effect on the type of technology that will sell in the showrooms. Indeed, it shows the trouble automakers will have meeting fuel economy standards since they are at the mercy of a determining factor that is completely out of their control.
Autoline Detroit
Airs every Sunday at 10:30AM on Detroit Public Television.
Autoline Detroit Podcast
Click here to subscribe in iTunes
Follow Autoline on Twitter for ongoing updates every day!
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
ack154 7:39PM (7/02/2009)
Last I checked around me, diesel is actually cheaper than 87 by a little bit... right now anyway.
Reply
Mike P. 7:43PM (7/02/2009)
...so where's my 3-cylinder turbocharged diesel-electric 110 mpg hybrid?
Reply
adam1drift 7:50PM (7/02/2009)
I love the VW comercial! great marketing!
Reply
Jim 8:04PM (7/02/2009)
"Mercedes, BMW, Audi and VW are the only ones really pushing diesels in the American market, and as the June sales report shows, VW has quite a story to tell."
The problem here is that you have to take the brand into account. #1, those three have a fairly long history with diesels, at least VW and M-B. #2, the buyers want a *VW* diesel, or a Mercedes-Benz diesel; there's no guarantee a Honda or Ford diesel car would interest them.
Reply
De 8:20PM (7/02/2009)
You hit the nail on the head, Jim. I am interested in a diesel very much and am not too brand loyal, but the majority of people I talk to who like diesels are very big about liking their VW and think it's the greatest brand that ever was.
On another note, I love that E-Blue SRT-4 in your profile picture. I have a 2004 Yellow SRT-4.
benzaholic 9:17PM (7/02/2009)
@Jim -
I agree, but how did those brands develop this kind of fan base for their diesels? BY SELLING THEM! There has been some on and off availability of diesel VWs and MBs as they raced to keep up with the US regulations, but they clearly committed to the US diesel market at least as far back as the 80s.
This can be used to show that if you sell compelling diesels, you can establish a solid market for them in the US. The trick now is, how long would it take (alternately phrased as how much will it cost) for other brands to establish that kind of relationship?
Would you buy a first year diesel Focus, Fusion, or Malibu? What about a diesel Accord or Sentra in their first year of US-specific configuration?
Now if US regulations allowed them to sell the exact same engines that have already established some history in other parts of the world, that would certainly reduce the perceived risk, but it doesn't look like that's an option.
Oh well. Guess I'll stick with dreams for now of diesel Wranglers, smarts, and Foci, and keep my fingers crossed that VW decides to bring us the GTD.
myself 12:54PM (7/03/2009)
Honda, Toyota, Volvo and Ford, has beem selling diesel in Europe for many years, for example, Honda diesel engine for Acord is considered as good as any german diesel, I have two volvo diesel XC 70 D5 and I can say that they have one of the best diesel engine I have ever drive in my life
zamafir 8:53PM (7/02/2009)
"That was for only one month of sales and one month does not a sales trend make"
um right, which is why we thankfully can use the internet to go way back to the month prior and see that almost 4,000 sold in may (3,862)
Reply
Frank B 9:58AM (7/03/2009)
I have never owned a VW in my almost 50 years of driving. I bought a VW Jetta TDI sedan DSG in April. My 'pure' highway mileage ranges from 45 to 50 MPG and my overall average for 5,000 plus miles plus is 40 MPG. I am very impressed with the ride/handling and steering. I drove the Honda Civic Hybrid, as well, but preferred the overall performance of the VW. I did not drive the 2009 Prius, as from the reviews I read, it appeared to be too much of an efficient transportation appliance, rather than a "driver's" car. I just love the 236 ft-lbs. of torque at 1750 RPM. It is such a pleasure to drive on hilly roads. The hybrids , for me, have to rev to high to get their maximum torque.
I love the Jetta and am so glad VW gave me the option of buying a modern clean diesel.
Reply
J.Crew 10:31PM (7/02/2009)
Here is a different take on the same numbers for the month in regards to hybrids that differs from John's perspective. Interesting diverging opinions, hybrid sales increased...
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/07/while-most-of-car-market-tanks-hybrid-sales-gain-for-sixth-consecutive-month.html
Reply
Fox 10:34PM (7/02/2009)
It is good to see this surge in diesel in diesel sales.
Looking back to Europe over ten years ago, in the UK which was traditionally very much a petrol market - buyers have switched over to diesel powered cars in vast number, so much so that diesel now accounts for more than 50% of sales. What changed ? Who knows, but mostly public perception - and the big advances that were made with turbo diesel and common rail engines which gave much higher performance and civilized refinement.
Mainland Europe was a much earlier adopter of diesel power, but what happened in the UK just shows the possibility of what could happen in the US market.
Once the public gets in their mind that modern diesel cars do not equal smelly/noisy/lacking performance then the demand will be present.
Reply
keep the change 11:02PM (7/02/2009)
The ultimate would be a diesel hybrid. Unfortunately, the manufacturers are afraid to make a diesel hybrid because they think the greenies, those people who flock to hybrids, will hold their nose.
Smart brought the diesel to Canada in 2004. It sold well, but when they brought it to the States a few years later, they gave it a bigger gas engine with no diesel option. Almost as if they felt Americans would go 'Ewww, a diesel." That same year, they dropped the diesel for Canada. Now the Smart car gets worse mileage than before. Ironic. The car whose whole reason for existence was primarily fuel economy, was changed to get less fuel economy while still being just as small.
The resistance to diesel, at least in the US, was that great, or perceived to be that great. In Europe, the Smart car is still diesel. Perhaps the perception problem is not with the public, but with the auto manufacturers who still have a 1975 view of what people want.
My father bought a MB 300D in 1975 and it is still going strong.
Reply
Jimbo 12:23AM (7/03/2009)
I agree that the automakers seem to be stuck with an antiquated idea of how well diesels will sell in the U.S. How do they know they won't sell if they refuse to give it a try? I would love to get a modern diesel, but don't want a Jetta and can't afford a BMW or MB.
A lot of noise has been made that the reason automakers don't sell European diesels is meeting U.S. emissions standards, but I don't buy it. Even if the standards were the same, I think most automakers would still refuse to sell diesels here.
FThorn 12:28AM (7/03/2009)
I saw in one of my mags that they averaged 33 mpg in new Jetta TDI. I averaged 50 mpg in my Prius.
Reply
Kumar 6:49AM (7/03/2009)
Sounds like the person in that magazine article did exclusively city/traffic driving and/or lead footed it.
If you're like many people and have a lengthy highway commute, diesel is a good option. Lot's of traffic, stop lights, stop and go driving, that's where the Prius shines.
Me, I'd like an option similar to the volt or the VW twin drive, whichever would be the most affordable. ;) Would love to go 30-40 miles on battery, covering the daily commute, and have a small engine to help for road trips/weekends.
Jim 8:00AM (7/03/2009)
I wouldn't put too much stock in the result from one test. After all, the idiots at Consumer Reports somehow managed to get only 11 mpg from a Jeep Liberty CRD they tested.
montoym 1:01PM (7/06/2009)
Not to mention that alot of those mags also have a tough time getting a Prius into the 40mpg range. I think the best I saw was an average of like 41mpg. This compared to the EPA rating of 46mpg combined.
I've still yet to see a long-term test from a reputable source come anywhere close to that, much less beat it without having to resort to hypermiling.
Harley Cook 1:26AM (7/03/2009)
Tdi in an Audi A3 and a 6-speed manual is perfect for me, but diesel fuel in North America has to improve to European standards.
Reply
montoym 1:14PM (7/06/2009)
How so?
Currently, diesel fuel in the US and Europe are held to roughly identical standards. The US mandates 15ppm for the sulfur content of our fuel and the EU now mandates 10ppm, down from the 15ppm they have mandated since 2005.
Currently, there are a few European diesels in the cars we can buy at American dealerships right now. The engines are the same as their European counterparts. The primary thing holding up the import of more of them are the tougher standards that the US has for emissions and the prohibative cost of adding the additional equipment to US-only vehicles to meet the tougher standards. It has nothing to do with fuel quality(anymore, now that we mandate ULSD).
I am aware that there are many other things that affect fuel quality, but I really have yet to see any sort of proof of the differences. Typically, it's just assumed that the EU has better fuel, but I've never seen any definative proof of it.
len simpson 5:29AM (7/03/2009)
Re : hybrids-----why?
Reply