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REPORT: Analysts suggest new vehicles sales could rebound to 10M pace in June
June auto sales will no doubt be ugly. In all likelihood, the sixth month of the year will be the 24th month in the past 25 to see a year-over-year sales decline. June could also bring a bit of good news, though, as an Automotive News poll of nine different industry analysts shows that sales may hit an annualized rate of 10 million, up from the 9.1-9.9 levels of previous months this year.
The slight pickup in June sales verses May numbers would suggest that the market for new cars and trucks has likely bottomed out. Edmunds predicts that the automaker likely to gain much share in June is Ford, as the car research site predicts sales that its sales are down only 15.6%. The next smallest decline is predicted to be Nissan at 24.2%, and then Toyota, Honda, GM, and Chrysler are all guesstimated to be between 28-32%. The June 2009 sales figures will likely be a bit skewed for Honda, though, as the Japanese automaker had an unusually strong June 2008 because of a big-time push for fuel efficient vehicles due to $4 per gallon gas.
Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache has told Automotive News that the second half of the year could see even more of an upward trend due to the freshly minted Cash-for-Clunkers law. Lache says sales could hit 11 million on an annualized rate, though it's likely that most people driving junkers can't afford a new car payment along with increased insurance rates.
[Source: Automotive News subs req'd | Image: Karen Bleier/AFP/Getty]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Dave T. 12:00PM (7/01/2009)
not to nitpick but an annual rate of 10 million vehicles is not exactly what I'd call a rebound when three years ago it was 17 million. A 9.4 projection moving to 10 million...good news. Not great though. Also why predict something that will be known by the end of business today?
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henrykrinkle 12:30PM (7/01/2009)
10 million is the new 20 million.
GeoSB8K 1:36PM (7/01/2009)
Well said Dave T. Was going to comment the same thing myself. Even at 2008 levels at around 13 million (well down from 2006), car companies were reeling. With 2009 at 10 million, which is what the general prediction has been for some time, we are looking at a very poor year for auto sales.
Iridium 12:26PM (7/01/2009)
What matters is new orders coming from dealers. Not sales of heavily discounted cars that have been sitting on lots for over a year. I've barely even seen a 2010 model on any lot. Most still have '08s sitting around.
The sales numbers are heavily scewed. The numbers the manufacturers report are cars they've sold to dealers. Not cars that are actually sold to the public.
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British_Rover 9:02PM (7/01/2009)
I can't speak for all the brands but for the new car brands I have sold the numbers we report to the manufacturers are actual retail deliveries sold to real customers and not cars shipped from the manufacturer.