REPORT: Toyota questions demand for plug-ins, cost, range, durability concerns
We all know that there is a hardcore group of consumers out there chanting the mantra of "No plug, no sale!" Okay, well, at least a few of you. The problem is that, like commenters on the internet, the loud fringe makes most of the noise, but often actually represents a very small percentage of the total population. For the rest of the car buying public, the realities of choosing a new car go well beyond the ability to "refuel" from a plug in the garage. This is the reality that Toyota, General Motors, Nissan, Mitsubishi and others have to face in planning for future electric vehicles.
How many people are actually willing to pay the price in purchase cost, range, and utility for a plug-in vehicle?
While Nissan and Mitsubishi are (publicly at least) very bullish on EVs, Toyota apparently remains more skeptical. Bill Reinert, Toyota's U.S. national manager for advanced technology, told a National Academy of Sciences panel in Washington that the company doesn't expect PHEV demand to top 50,000 units a year, and the total could be as low as 3,500. So far, the argument goes, in most real-world testing, PHEVs are showing relatively little benefit to justify the significant extra battery cost. Unless plug-ins are designed as such and able to operate through most of their range on electric power (unlike conversion PHEVs), the real world benefits may only be visible to dedicated hyper-milers.
Gallery: EVS23: PHEV Prius prototype
[Source: Bloomberg]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
CB 11:36AM (5/21/2009)
Translation
Additional Battery cost > Additional smugness factor
Reply
Jim 11:36AM (5/21/2009)
"Manufacturer questions viability of a product that they don't plan to offer."
Story at 11 ;)
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Coolio 12:47PM (5/21/2009)
You're confusing cause and effect.
jon 3:03PM (5/21/2009)
I like this oil spill paint color...
HCL3 11:36AM (5/21/2009)
I know they have been around for a while now, but I don't understand and will never understand why anyone would want a hybrid.
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Jim 11:37AM (5/21/2009)
*shrug* the hybrid Escapes we have at work return around 38 mpg with normal driving (i.e. no stupid hypermiling tricks.)
HCL3 11:42AM (5/21/2009)
I can't say that I've ever given a thought gas mileage when buying a new car.
Sea Urchin 11:45AM (5/21/2009)
HCL3 well some of us want to retire at 65 WITH money, rather than throw money at gas pump.
Jim 11:46AM (5/21/2009)
"I can't say that I've ever given a thought gas mileage when buying a new car."
So? You don't seriously think that because you haven't, no one does.
HCL3 11:56AM (5/21/2009)
I'm sure some people consider gas mileage, but I think that overall style, power, and tech features trumps gas mileage. Plus, it's not like gas is that expensive anyway.
Jim 11:59AM (5/21/2009)
"I'm sure some people consider gas mileage, but I think that overall style, power, and tech features trumps gas mileage. Plus, it's not like gas is that expensive anyway."
I don't know if you're in the US or not, but if you are, surely you haven't forgotten:
1) how quickly gas prices rose last summer, and
2) how they're already creeping up again even with depressed demand.
car buying habits changed almost overnight last year. When (not if) fuel costs climb back up, you can bet people's buying habits will shift.
zamafir 12:09PM (5/21/2009)
He's not being serious, he's just shining you guys on.
Ian 12:10PM (5/21/2009)
I agree. Mileage isn't THE factor. If I have 2 vehicles I want that are equal in terms of price, options, and power/appeal, then maybe mileage comes into play. But I buy a vehicle for a purpose (My trailblazer is for towing/hauling, the 350Z is for fun and auto-x/track days, and my restored 1980 Scirocco is for tooling around in on the weekends). If an Explorer got 24mpg, and the TrailBlazer gets 22mpg, that doesn't really matter to me unless the Explorer is the same price, and has the same features (it doesn't, since it doesn't have the same class hitch that the TB does). Now, if I was looking for a beater every day driver, I'd look into a Corolla, or a Sentra or a VW Rabbit, but in the end the mileage is one of the last things I care about. I care about up front price/payment price, features for the price, and the driving experience first.
Brad 2:10PM (5/21/2009)
I know in my own case that adequate power along with styling are two of the main factors when considering a car. MPG is very high on the list as well because I only have so much to spend on a car and it has to get good gas mileage and have a good insurance rate.
Mike 3:34PM (5/21/2009)
This guy is obviously trying to stir up some controversy! lol..
"I never think of gas prices/mpg when buying a car".
Here's some news for him - Gas is the most expensive part of maintaining a car (at least here in Phila Suburbs). I can easily spend $100 a month on gas and I only spend $500 a year on insurance.
Now if your car is getting double the gas mileage.. you can spend $50 more a month in monthly payments. So basically the car could spend roughly $3000 more on a car and still break out even in the long run.
I have no problem with money, but I still don't like wasting it on gas. I would rather be going out to dinner once more a week, or buying another handgun instead of wasting it on gas. Yes, I could spend money on gas AND buy something else, but then I would save $50 less per month.
To some people a car and how fast it COULD be driven (less than 1% of the time) is more important than having a house, 2nd house, 3rd house, family etc.
BTW - the plug in thing is NOT going to be that big. Majority of the population lives in cities. Majority of the people in Philadelphia don't have a garage / outlet that they would plug their car into.
The suburban people that WOULD be willing to plug in their car would most likely be driving MORE than the 20-40 miles per day. SO the plug in idea for a short range vehicle isnt as useful.
The electric outlet is not the answer.. I hope we do find one soon though! And NO Hydrogen is NOT the end all answer. We need to continue to develop hybrids, and diesels and push people to using smaller cars in general. People dont need a POS Trailblazer / Explorers to drive themselves to their office job. I think it's some type of inferiority complex. I make 6 figures, drive a 98 maxima and happy as can be. Especially considering I save nearly 70% of my take home pay each week. No car payments, cheap insurance and can enjoy life. Instead of going to work hoping to be able to make my next car/mortgage payment.
Neil Timmerman 2:40AM (5/22/2009)
Mike I suggest you read this:
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2008/06/gallons-per-mile-is-a-better-idea.html
Sea Urchin 11:38AM (5/21/2009)
That is a LEGIT concern, also people who live in apartments will not be able to refuel at all. Companies should not make a product that "discriminates" against some people, meaning almost no one in Manhattan would be able to buy an EV. Same with many other large cities which are home to wealthy people.
If Toyota thinks it won't be able to sell EVs, than they shouldn't, it's not a requirement, CAFE does not mandate EVs, just sell hybrids or ICE powered cars that get good MPGs.
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CB 11:41AM (5/21/2009)
This is an honest question because I truly don't know...
Don't most people in Manhattan walk most places?
Sea Urchin 11:47AM (5/21/2009)
No, subway and buses and taxis are everywhere.
Jared 11:52AM (5/21/2009)
CB, most people in Manhattan take the subway.
"Companies should not make a product that "discriminates" against some people, meaning almost no one in Manhattan would be able to buy an EV."
Oh, please. Companies should make a product that they think there is a market for. Is there a market for EVs and plug-in hybrids? Yes. Is it a big market? I don't think so, not given the current cost of batteries and gasoline, but we'll see. Will apartment dwellers be a large part of the market for EVs and plug-in hybrids? Probably not, at least at first.