STUDY: Median age of cars in U.S. increases to record high
That old clunker in your driveway is not looking so bad right about now, huh? As borne out in the last few month's set of sales figures, Americans are purchasing fewer cars today than in previous years, meaning that the current fleet of vehicles on the road is older than ever before. According to data compiled by R. L. Polk & Co., the average vehicle in use today is 9.4 years old, up a few points from last year's 9.2-year average.
Light trucks don't manage to live quite as long with an average age of 7.5 years, but that figure is still up from the 7.1 years recorded in 2007. What gives? Sagging consumer confidence, unavailable credit and a distinct lack of discretionary funds are the main culprits, though last summer's record high fuel prices also contributed to the figures.
Collectors of classic '80s machinery take note: Vehicles are also being scrapped at higher rates than in past years. A total of 5.6% of all cars and trucks were scrapped in 2008 as compared to 5.2% in '07. Getting parts for that cherry IROC-Z is only going to get harder as the years go by.
[Source: R. L. Polk & Co.]
PRESS RELEASE:
U.S. Vehicle Median Age Increased in 2008, According to Polk
* Median age for passenger cars was a record high of 9.4 years
* The total vehicle scrappage rate increased to 5.6 percent in 2008; led by light truck scrappage increase
SOUTHFIELD, Mich. (Mar. 3, 2009) – The median age of passenger cars in operation increased to 9.4 years in 2008, breaking the previous two-year record high of 9.2 years, according to figures released today by R. L. Polk & Co. in its annual vehicle population report.
The median age for all trucks in 2008 increased to 7.6 years from 7.3 years in 2007. Light trucks increased from 7.1 years in 2007 to 7.5 years in 2008 (TABLE A). Polk's annual vehicle population report represents data from July 1, 2007 to June 30, 2008, following an in-depth analysis of more than 249 million vehicles.
"As the fleet of pick-up trucks, SUVs and minivans purchased in the late 1980s and through the 1990s ages, their scrappage rates accelerate," said Dave Goebel, solutions consultant for Polk's aftermarket team.
The percentage of total passenger cars and trucks scrapped in 2008 increased to 5.6 percent compared to 5.2 percent in 2007. The passenger car scrappage rate was 5.1 percent. For all trucks the scrappage rate was 6.3 percent and light truck scrappage was 6.4 percent, both up notably from 2007 (TABLE B).
"The current economic environment, coupled with high gas prices last spring and summer, have resulted in consumers delaying purchases of vehicles because their discretionary income has fallen," said Goebel. "Based on the uncertainty of what the future holds, consumers are trying to keep their current vehicles running longer, until their confidence improves."
Polk analysts also anticipate that in bad economic times, the threshold of repair costs may increase. Consumers could feel as though paying a repair expense to keep the vehicle going for a year is more sensible or affordable than a monthly vehicle payment over an extended period of time.
About R. L. Polk & Co.
R. L. Polk & Co. is the premier provider of automotive information and marketing solutions. Polk collects and interprets global data, and provides extensive automotive business expertise to help customers understand their market position, identify trends, build brand loyalty, conquest new business and gain a competitive advantage. Polk helps automotive manufacturers and dealers, automotive aftermarket companies, finance and insurance companies, advertising agencies, media companies, consulting organizations, government agencies and market research firms make good business decisions. A privately held global firm, Polk is based in Southfield, Mich. with operations in Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Get a WordPress.com Blog
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
TyWright 4:44PM (3/04/2009)
Only way to really describe an IROC is to use the word 'cherry'.
I love Autoblog's mullet donning writers.
Reply
BigMcLargeHuge 4:45PM (3/04/2009)
Median and average are not the same thing.
Reply
Nightcrawler 4:10PM (3/05/2009)
I was always taught that median was one of three ways to calculate the more generic term "average", the other being mean and mode. Mean is most often what we are referring to when we say average though.
NissanSpecV 5:00PM (3/04/2009)
Nice Camaro! Ty didn't disappoint with the mullet comment.
Reply
Nick 5:01PM (3/04/2009)
Bigs is correct and incorrect. Median means half are older 9.4 years and half are younger than 9.4 years. Mean = avg
Reply
Jay Evans 5:25PM (3/04/2009)
No, Mean and Average have two totally different meanings, they are not the same.
Phil L. 5:33PM (3/04/2009)
Jay Evans -
Only in a very specific sense that only true statisticians care about.
The rest of us do understand what "median" is - and that "mean" is "average" for most purposes.
Statistics geeks go here for lots of fun:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean
Big Rocket 5:51PM (3/04/2009)
Suppose there are 5 cars in a parking lot. The first and second are 1 year old, the third is 2 years old, the fourth is 3 years old, and the fifth is 13 years old.
Mean = (1+1+2+3+13)/5 = 4 years old
Median = middle of {1, 1, 2, 3, 13} = 2 years old
Mode = most frequent of {1, 1, 2, 3, 13} = 1 year old
Average = mean, median, or mode (depending on context)
Mean: In mathematics and statistics, the arithmetic mean (or simply the mean) of a list of numbers is the sum of all of the list divided by the number of items in the list... The mean is the most commonly-used type of average and is often referred to simply as the average. The term "mean" or "arithmetic mean" is preferred in mathematics and statistics to distinguish it from other averages such as the median and the mode.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arithmetic_mean
Median: In probability theory and statistics, a median is described as the number separating the higher half of a sample... from the lower half. The median of a finite list of numbers can be found by arranging all the observations from lowest value to highest value and picking the middle one.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median
Mode: In statistics, the mode is the value that occurs the most frequently in a data set...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mode_(statistics)
Kampfire 5:01PM (3/04/2009)
I think more importantly is that the quality of older cars have improved upon over the years. Back in the 90s do you think there were alot of people driving around in mid 70s trash? Now cars that are 15 years old aren't that bad to drive. More and more people consider them just cheap transportation.
Reply
Shiftright 5:49PM (3/04/2009)
I agree 100%. 20 years ago a car that made it to 100k miles without any major repairs was considered a good car. Nowadays 100k miles is often the first major scheduled maintenance for many cars and getting 150k+ miles is the minimum expected. They don't rust like they used to due to better quality sealants, paints and metal treatments either. New cars are also more expensive in terms of the average number of week's salaries they cost, although they are generally also better equipped.
Ken 5:14PM (3/04/2009)
Well lets see..
In my garage I have three cars, two of which are over ten years old.
One is a 1997 Acura 3.2 TL, with 180,000 miles. Outside of fluid changes I've only had to fix the starter and replace the CV boots. It literally drives likes new otherwise. No rattles, fuel economy and power are the same as day one.
Another is a 1991 Honda Prelude. Except for a third gear grind, it too runs like new. It has 160,000 miles, no rattles and has only had a slight rust problem with the exhaust. Easy fix.
Why get rid of something that still does its job well? I haven't had a car payment in years.. I attribute the increasing median age of vehicles to improved build quality of ALL manufacturers across the board.
Reply
Jeff 6:07PM (3/04/2009)
Similar story here, right down to the Honda theme.
I bought a new CRX Si in 1989 and drove it every day for 19 years. It never needed anything other than routine maintenance but, living squarely in the rust belt, body cancer finally got the best of it. I'd happily be driving it today had I stayed on top of the rust.
Replaced it with a '94 Integra for a whopping $1,200. 170K on the clock and it's still tight, with no rattles whatsoever. It needed a clutch, but I can thank the previous owner (kid who bought it to learn how to drive a manual before giving up) for that.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Reality-Check 9:09PM (3/04/2009)
I'll join this party, and add one for domestics too. Last year I sold my 95 V6 mustang with 253K miles on it...the car sat for 2 years...we put a fuel pump and new battery in it, and it's running perfectly! Not sure how many miles are on it now, but I know it's still going strong. I think it's great testament to the quality of newer cars just as you guys said, I'd also add to that, that it doesn't hurt that there are those of us out there that do realize the importance of regular maintenance.
yakapo 11:44PM (3/04/2009)
I've got a '98 Honda Accord EX coupe with 166k on it. Runs perfect and great gas mileage. I can't imagine making payments on a new car for the image or whatever. Maybe it's just me but seems like most of my friends with newer vehicles (both domestic and foreign) have had more problems than I have.
btw, that's a really nice camaro.
Pokey 10:44AM (3/05/2009)
Agreed. My '95 Pontiac Bonneville has well over 300,000 miles on her, and she still runs and drives perfect! In the ten years I have owned her, she has never let me down, just routine maintenance, I take care of her, she takes care of me.
She still runs, drives, and looks great, and everything works just like it should, so I see no reason to get rid of her.
Taglane 5:24PM (3/04/2009)
We just got an 84 Celebrity for 600 bucks. Sure it's not perfect, but everything works (save for the side mirror adjusters). And with 30+ MPG and A/C, who the F should care about the age/quality? I used to think everything from the Mid 70's to the late 90's were crap, but all the average person really needs is an A to B car. Maybe C, but you can make it.
Reply
Brn 5:32PM (3/04/2009)
Reliable cars + Recession = High median age of cars
Hardly a surprise
Reply
Fordzilla 6:48PM (3/04/2009)
I find it odd that the median age of light trucks is lower than that of cars. I drive my 15 year old Explorer with 180,000 miles on it every day, and I see a lot of other trucks around that are older than 8 years by a lot.
Reply
BigWill 5:49PM (3/04/2009)
Welcome to the new reality. I hope GM & Chrysler (and Ford for that matter) are working on that do-over for the Viability Plan because their projections are going to be way off. The kicker they haven't realized is that with all of that HELOC money gone and people being forced to keep their cars longer, people will discover the pleasure of not having to pay $300-500/month for a car. The only financial feeling that's better than paying off your car is paying off your mortgage.
We used to be into getting a new car every 2-3 years. We got out of it more than a decade ago when we went to trade our 1990 Subaru Legacy. After test driving the Camry, Accord, Altima, G20, and 626, we'd get back in the Soob and think "you know, this car drives better and is more comfortable than that new one." That was 14 years ago and we still have the Legacy.
Reply
Frank 10:40AM (3/05/2009)
@BigWill,
This holds true for the foreign owned nameplates as well. Maybe the reason why Toyota is not doing so well is people are saying "You know, my Corolla/Camry/Tacoma is doing just fine, why buy a new one"?