Autoline on Autoblog with John McElroy
HOW TO KICK OUR (IMPORTED) OIL HABIT
There's a lot of talk about making the U.S. energy independent. Or getting off oil altogether. I guess anyone who believes it can easily be done has never taken the time to count how many millions of barrels of oil we import every day. Damn do we use a lot of oil!
Some say the country is in trouble because we don't have an energy policy. That's not true. We do have a policy. It doesn't have a grandiose name attached to it, but for decades now, with strong bi-partisan support, the U.S. has maintained very low gasoline taxes, has legislated cleaner fuels (which yields less fuel), and has put strict limits on drilling.
We seem to be saying that we don't want to use oil, but since we don't want to hurt the "little guy," we'll keep it as cheap as possible.
John McElroy is host of the TV program "Autoline Detroit". Every week he brings his unique insights as an auto industry insider to Autoblog readers. Follow the jump to continue reading this week's editorial.
That's not going to work anymore, and finally, with oil prices yo-yo-ing up and down, the public seems to be ready for a cold, hard-nosed energy policy. Saner voices talk in terms of achieving energy security, not energy independence. They talk about dropping oil imports from countries that represent a high political risk for America. And this is where the discussion really gets interesting.
First you've got to look at the numbers. The U.S. uses nearly 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products every single day. About 58%, or 12 million barrels, is imported. About 40% of those imports, nearly 5 million barrels, come from OPEC countries. About 16%, or nearly 2 million barrels, comes from the Persian Gulf.
The first goal of any energy plan should be getting off Persian Gulf oil. It's arguably the most volatile part of the world. And the straits of Hormuz are a natural choke point to close the Gulf off, which makes us extremely vulnerable. But how do we come up with an extra 2 million barrels a day?
Well, we have three approaches we can take, and the good news is we're making progress on all three fronts.
First, is conservation. Americans are using less gasoline this year, but that's mainly due to a very weak economy and much higher gas prices. In other words, that decrease may not last. But in the next four years, new technology in cars and trucks-hybrids, plug-ins, diesels, you name it-is going make them a lot more efficient, and that will help a lot.
Second, is more domestic drilling. The U.S. has over 20 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. This doesn't include oil sands, or shale, or coal that could be converted to oil, which could bump that number up dramatically. More drilling isn't a solution, but it can stop the growth in oil imports.
Third, is alternative fuels. And this is where the most progress is being made. Say what you will about ethanol, but it's doing more to displace our use of oil than anything else out there. The U.S. is on track to produce 200 million barrels of ethanol for fuel this year, which is running well ahead of the goal we set for 2012.
Even more promising, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reports that cellulosic ethanol production for fuel could hit 4 million barrels a day by 2025.
That is a significant number. Of the nearly 21 million barrels of oil the U.S. uses every day, about 8.5 million barrels go into our cars and trucks. Cellulosic ethanol could get us nearly half-way towards replacing that. Throw in bio-diesel, coal-to-liquid, algae for fuel or other alternatives, and all of a sudden the goal of getting off imported oil, at least for our cars, is totally within our grasp.
I believe America could set a goal of getting off Persian Gulf oil within the decade, and getting off OPEC oil by 2025. And I believe most Americans would even support higher gas taxes to get there if the plan were presented to them this way.
We definitely have the ability and technology to do it. Now we need the will.
Airs every Sunday at 10:30AM on Detroit Public Television.
Autoline Detroit Podcast
Click here to subscribe in iTunes
Last week's show: "Natural Number"
There's a lot of talk about making the U.S. energy independent. Or getting off oil altogether. I guess anyone who believes it can easily be done has never taken the time to count how many millions of barrels of oil we import every day. Damn do we use a lot of oil!Some say the country is in trouble because we don't have an energy policy. That's not true. We do have a policy. It doesn't have a grandiose name attached to it, but for decades now, with strong bi-partisan support, the U.S. has maintained very low gasoline taxes, has legislated cleaner fuels (which yields less fuel), and has put strict limits on drilling.
We seem to be saying that we don't want to use oil, but since we don't want to hurt the "little guy," we'll keep it as cheap as possible.
John McElroy is host of the TV program "Autoline Detroit". Every week he brings his unique insights as an auto industry insider to Autoblog readers. Follow the jump to continue reading this week's editorial.
That's not going to work anymore, and finally, with oil prices yo-yo-ing up and down, the public seems to be ready for a cold, hard-nosed energy policy. Saner voices talk in terms of achieving energy security, not energy independence. They talk about dropping oil imports from countries that represent a high political risk for America. And this is where the discussion really gets interesting.
First you've got to look at the numbers. The U.S. uses nearly 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products every single day. About 58%, or 12 million barrels, is imported. About 40% of those imports, nearly 5 million barrels, come from OPEC countries. About 16%, or nearly 2 million barrels, comes from the Persian Gulf.
The first goal of any energy plan should be getting off Persian Gulf oil. It's arguably the most volatile part of the world. And the straits of Hormuz are a natural choke point to close the Gulf off, which makes us extremely vulnerable. But how do we come up with an extra 2 million barrels a day?
Well, we have three approaches we can take, and the good news is we're making progress on all three fronts.
First, is conservation. Americans are using less gasoline this year, but that's mainly due to a very weak economy and much higher gas prices. In other words, that decrease may not last. But in the next four years, new technology in cars and trucks-hybrids, plug-ins, diesels, you name it-is going make them a lot more efficient, and that will help a lot.
Second, is more domestic drilling. The U.S. has over 20 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. This doesn't include oil sands, or shale, or coal that could be converted to oil, which could bump that number up dramatically. More drilling isn't a solution, but it can stop the growth in oil imports.
Third, is alternative fuels. And this is where the most progress is being made. Say what you will about ethanol, but it's doing more to displace our use of oil than anything else out there. The U.S. is on track to produce 200 million barrels of ethanol for fuel this year, which is running well ahead of the goal we set for 2012.
Even more promising, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reports that cellulosic ethanol production for fuel could hit 4 million barrels a day by 2025.
That is a significant number. Of the nearly 21 million barrels of oil the U.S. uses every day, about 8.5 million barrels go into our cars and trucks. Cellulosic ethanol could get us nearly half-way towards replacing that. Throw in bio-diesel, coal-to-liquid, algae for fuel or other alternatives, and all of a sudden the goal of getting off imported oil, at least for our cars, is totally within our grasp.
I believe America could set a goal of getting off Persian Gulf oil within the decade, and getting off OPEC oil by 2025. And I believe most Americans would even support higher gas taxes to get there if the plan were presented to them this way.
We definitely have the ability and technology to do it. Now we need the will.
###
Autoline DetroitAirs every Sunday at 10:30AM on Detroit Public Television.
Autoline Detroit Podcast
Click here to subscribe in iTunes
Last week's show: "Natural Number"
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Yar 5:36PM (9/25/2008)
You forgot to add we export about 1 million bbl/day.
Reply
tankd0g 7:23PM (9/25/2008)
All that matters is the net imported amount at the end of the day and it ain't a negative number.
wumpus 10:21PM (9/25/2008)
Anybody who suggests "drill for oil independance" is either demanding simultaneous nationalization of oil companies or a complete dupe. If you don't think "US" oil companies won't sell the whole inventory to China for a buck more, look at the former "US" firm, Haliburton, now a Dubia firm.
Dsuupr 5:57PM (9/25/2008)
Cellulosic Ethanol plants are the way to go.
1. Reduces CO2, as the production plants "eat" it
2. Reduces overall emission (64%) on vehicles
3. Allows us to dispose of trash in a way that returns a positive return
4. Has a MUCH higher return of BTU over gasoline or any other type of fuel.
a. .81 Btu made from 1 Btu from gasoline
b. 7.7 currently (10.31 next generation) Btu made from 1 Btu from Ethanol
5. Fastest way to reduce our "oil" consumption
6. Easiest way for auto manufactures to make the change
7. Produces thousands of good paying jobs
Reply
Brian 6:12PM (9/25/2008)
Cellulosic Ethanol is major break through. I totally support it. But the problem with some people is that once you mention the word "ethanol" people freak out and say "it get gets less MPG," "it makes food prices soar." All the while people never look at Cellulsic ethanol. They only think of corn ethanol. I understand a little bit about corn. It was once a worthless crop at one time. So much that the government paid farmers to grow it. We also dump it into all of our foods. Example: Corn starch and corn syrup etc. All of which aren't exactly healthy for us. So we need to replace it that crap i with something else. Thats why it effects all food prices in some way. Getting rid of corn in all of our foods frees it up more.
I am still highly interested in making oil from algea. It facinates me. Maybe if we could get a factory using artificial light powered by solar panels in a controlled environment with being cost efficient could be created.
MIKE S 6:06PM (9/25/2008)
The little guy will get hammered with ethanol because it takes a lot of corn, about 400 lbs. to produce 1 gallon of fuel. So, either the little guy eats or doesn't. Haven't you been paying attention to the commodities markets for corn and soybeans, it's through the roof. You cannot have it both ways. Either the little guy feeds his family or drives, gee, which one will he choose? Oil is still the cheapest form of fuel for this ecomony and the world's economy to keep them going and alternatives are far from efficent. Nuclear power is much more efficient form of power. We have more oil here than we need. Drilling has come a long way, especially off shore. All these people that whine about the spills, get a life. Tell me when the last one was? Almost 40 years ago. Oil is still and will be for a very long time, the best way to go. Think about it, would the airline industy and auto industry keep making and producing oil based consuming products if they didn't think oil was the answer and going to be around? Stop this nonsense.
Reply
tankd0g 7:23PM (9/25/2008)
Ethanol from corn is not the way to go, we all know it and hopefully it will die soon. There are many methods that have the potential to make ethanol viable. Nothing is going to replace oil, oil is concentrated solar energy in a bottle that comes out of a hole for free. We don't have to grow it, we don't have to enrich it. Nothing we can ever come up with will be able to top that.
Gardiner Westbound 6:37PM (9/25/2008)
Obama says he will abrogate NAFTA notwithstanding Canada is the largest petroleum exporter to the U.S., exporting 2.383 million barrels per day in July. The second largest exporter is Saudi Arabia with 1.673 million barrels per day.
I wonder how that will work out for him.
Reply
Andrew 7:15PM (9/25/2008)
You're a year behind on your insights, and you totally left out compressed natural gas. The main thing keeping most people from jumping onto the alternative fuel bandwagon is infrastructure. Well, hey, getting a few billionaires behind CNG sold me. As long as we build a few more nuclear power plants the CNG will be the affordable bridge, that is until fuel cells are mass produced.
Reply
MachinaDC5 9:06PM (9/25/2008)
How to kick our (imported) oil habit: Step 1, bitch about solutions-
http://www.autoblog.com/2008/08/24/autoline-on-autoblog-with-john-mcelroy/
Typically backwards McElroy, except this time with contradictions!
Reply
Gary 11:59PM (9/25/2008)
Negative news sells. It's as simple as that.
Reply
Jimbo 6:21AM (9/26/2008)
John, I think you forgot to mention something regading our desire to simply get off middle east/OPEC oil. Even if we could drill our own oil, a pinch in the Straits of Hormuz would still hurt us because oil is priced on a global market; so a pinch there would still hurt our oil prices here.
However, I agree completely that we need to do the three things you mention, plus I would add 2 others:
1. This is an energy issue. We need more energy (see your points 2 and 3). We need the kind that can drive our economy the most, which is currently oil, but even if everyone could switch to a Volt tomorrow, we wouldn't have the electrical capacity to support it. We need a plan to produce and deliver more energy efficiently. Coal, Nuclear. I'm not as worried about the global warming issue because if anyone has been counting sunspots recently, this may not be a problem for about 50 years.
2. We should immediately federalize automobile environmental standards so that european diesels can be sold in all 50 states and then promote the purchase of those diesels. Did you know that the most fuel efficient car in GMs fleet cannot even be sold here, but is sold in Europe? Diesel isn't the answer to our problem but it is; a) easily 20% more efficient that gas b) a good bridge while we work on your point 1 (conservation) and other forms of energy (points 2 & 3, plus nuclear and coal/shale oil).
Reply
Kabayo 9:20AM (9/26/2008)
Where is CNG in your analysis John? It's the most sensible alternative to gasoline out there. If I drove a lot, I'd certainly get myself a Honda Civic GX and a Phill.
Ehanol is a scam brought to us by the farm lobby and the crooked politicians.
Reply
Dave T. 10:15AM (9/26/2008)
Funny I blogged about this two weeks ago with the exact same points on cutting out OPEC and Russia and how we'd make up the difference. I used hybrids as my solution.
http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2008/09/do-we-need-a-st.html
Cellulosic ethanol and other alt fuels have a major flaw:
THEY WON'T WORK TODAY!
Meaning if you decided to flip this switch today there is absolutely no technology in place that can produce cellulosic ethanol on the same scope as even corn based ethanol> There just isn't.
It's all fine and good to develop new technologies and alt fuels but its ridiculous to claim them as a solution for today if they simply do not exist today.
Without addressing the consumer part of the equation and the efficiency part of the equation you're not going to get off foreign oil.
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Jay Evans 4:11PM (9/26/2008)
Nice idea, but what about the 240 million gasoline fueled cars on the roads now? Think they are just going to disappear overnight?
US sales are about 16 million cars a year. So even if a 100% switch was tomorrow, in ten years there would still be 80+ million fossil fuel cars.
No matter what we do it will 20-40 years before the effects start to take hold.
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Tony 8:09AM (9/27/2008)
OPEC, SHMOPEC. If my government did what it subtly implied a number of months ago, to build a pipeline to the west coast and sell direct to the Chinese and Indians. All because the Pres candidates wanted to reopen NAFTA, you Americans would really have a heart attack. In case you didn't know Canada supplies you Americans more oil than OPEC. We want to reopen NAFTA!
Reply