Could U.S. become net exporter of gasoline?
A number of factors are conspiring to create a situation that recently would have been unthinkable: the United States as a supplier of gasoline to world markets. According to Booz & Company, those factors are the rise of biofuels in the West, the introduction of plug-in electric and other alternative fuel vehicles, and the growth of the really cheap car, like the Tata Nano. The United States imports oil to feed its gasoline habit, but the U.S. has refining capacity that developing nations cannot match. The U.S. is also lowering its reliance on traditional gasoline due to the price, states' mandates on switching to biofuels, and the dawn of mass market alternative fuel vehicles. This adds up to the United States importing oil, and then selling it to nations like India and China to feed their larger appetites for gasoline.
In the middle of all of this are the refineries, who made predictions for today's business plans two decades ago. Sure, no one is crying for them -- they need extra pages to include the zeros on their profit statements -- but they have to start figuring out who's going to need which products and how they are going to deliver them. And, by refining company standards, they need to do it quickly, which is a method of operation they aren't well versed in.
[Source: Green Car Congress via Kicking Tires; Photo CC 2.0 - National Archives]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Torrent 5:43PM (8/28/2008)
oh hell no.
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2004m3driver 5:54PM (8/28/2008)
Oh hell yes. Then we could get cool buildings like the Saudi's and Dubai.
matt 5:46PM (8/28/2008)
so what's stopping india and china from building their own refineries?
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MasterCKO 5:55PM (8/28/2008)
nothing really, except that we have the capacity now and are probably ahead of them in terms of technology and other factors.
Andrew 6:15PM (8/28/2008)
Nothing. They will build their own. This will never happen in the US.
DesiAuto 6:29PM (8/28/2008)
"so what's stopping india and china from building their own refineries?"
India already has some of the world's biggest refinaries, this article is 10 years late.
Don't know about China.
theo 6:41PM (8/28/2008)
Keep in mind two thing:
First we have not only some strict environmental laws and regulations that nearly bar new refineries, but we also have litigious fans of the environment that would postpone new development for decades, if not forever.
Also, all of those laws and regulations that we have pose no barrier to India or China, who have nearly zero environmental laws.
New refineries won't be built domestically, especially if our appetite for oil declines.
BigMcLargeHuge 5:55PM (8/28/2008)
By the time this even becomes an issue worth debating, our Chinese overlords will tell us what to do with our supplies.
Kidding (I hope)
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MikeofLA 6:59PM (8/28/2008)
I've heard a statement alluding to this several times. Now, I know you're kidding, but China will never be as powerful as the US. For 1, they lack the social structure and 2, when people get more money, they get more information. Once the Chinese realize the horrible conditions they live in there will be a social revolution on the scale never seen before. This will cause a global ripple (more like a wave) effecting everyone and most likely stifling China's fast growing economy.
Not to mention, we still have the most powerful, technologically advanced and bad ass military on the planet Bar None and by FAR. There is no way any country could take on the US in a conventional war, and hopefully soon, in unconventional war.
I respect all the countries of the world, and I do not think we are "better" we are just more powerful... eh, alas, I could be wrong... and in that case, I should start working on my Mandarin
Yar 7:23PM (8/28/2008)
Economically, China may come close to us eventually. We do have a very mature economy, and when China gets near our level their economic growth will begin to slow to a crawl.
However, militarily, China will probably never reach the capability of the US. Unless we completely relinquish our nuclear arsenal AND disband our ultra-massive Navy (so massive it is absolutely uncontested by any nation, or even groups of nations) then China will still remain second fiddle.
This is all beside the point. In reality, we shouldn't be competing with China at all. People here constantly talk about how the Europeans view us, and how we need to be more politically congruent with them. In my opinion, Europe is old news. We need to be primarily associating with China and India. Let the EU rot.
Travis 10:22PM (8/28/2008)
I for one would like to welcome our Chinese overlords...
Graham 8:57AM (8/29/2008)
@Travis
"I for one would like to welcome our Chinese overlords..."
You just need to learn Chinese so that our Chinese overlords will be able to understand your groveling. :-)
Rob 5:52PM (8/28/2008)
Hate to break it to you but their profit margins are not out of line for any business. As a matter of fact it's well below that of many other industries.
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jsjs 6:30PM (8/28/2008)
Actually, the $$ isn't in refining as much as oil production - which is why some refineries in the US had CUT-back on production earlier this year.
As for oil-producers, yes - their margins aren't as high as in certain industries, but lately, their margins have been pretty good w/ regard to other producers of COMMODITIES.
Craig 6:33PM (8/28/2008)
Well said Rob, I came in here to say the very same thing.
Even though the oil companies make really large profits each year, this profit is made from a revenue that is absolutely gargantuan.
Last year Exxon-Mobil returned a 10% profit, although healthy, this isn't all that big.
tankd0g 10:36PM (8/28/2008)
Keep telling yourself that. Oil companie's record profits in the last 8 years do not jive with the amount of product sold given the consistent profit margin they claim. They would have us believe that their costs have gone up while their capacity has not and yet the profits are record breaking despite a razor thin margin? Also I should believe in Santa Claus?
tankd0g 10:36PM (8/28/2008)
Craig, a 10% return on something you didn't have to manufacture or grow is pretty frigging good. Name an industry that does better than that.
Rob 11:21PM (8/28/2008)
How about the beverage indusrty? The companies selling you 20oz of water are making near 20% (Coca-Cola). While I certainly dislike paying $4/gal it's far from breaking me. This year the average American will pay $950 more for gas than last. In all offense, if $950 a year busts your bank you are a loser.
Mark 5:55PM (8/28/2008)
Sounds good -- import a raw material (crude oil), add value to it and export the finished product (gasoline). Works for me.
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DesiAuto 6:26PM (8/28/2008)
India already has some of the world's biggest refinaries and they building few more. They had given contract to haliburton to build it, but after hearing the cost decided to do it themselves.