Cerberus Capital Management shot off a nine-page letter to investors outlining ways that Chrysler could sink, while also pointing out that they believe Chrysler's on the track for success. Some of the possible failure scenarios include a nasty recession, an extreme slowdown in the car market, or a further credit downturn. Credit is already looking green around the gills, and the potential for a widespread domino effect that starts with an implosion of the teetering mortgage business would be catastrophic for Chrysler Financial and GMAC, of which Cerberus owns 51 percent. As easy mortgages and equity go, so goes willy-nilly new car purchasing, and we're probably already seeing the results of that adjustment. Cerberus believes that it can weather a mild credit downturn, and even a mild recession, just fine.

One way to attain success is to declare it, and changing the definition doesn't hurt, either. Cerberus optimistically declares that there's no need to be heroes to earn a good return on their investment. It sounds a little bit like they're saying it's okay to tread water. Stating that it's not necessary to build Chrysler up, even though that's the underlying hope, Cerberus thinks that just hanging in there should be good enough to earn a return. All of Chrysler's employees must feel great knowing that Bob Nardelli, Jim Press, and Tom LaSorda can essentially just keep the company coasting along until Cerberus sells Chrysler off so it can collect that mythical return. Chrysler's performance is so far outpacing expectations, and the company does have cash on hand. Those are actual, concrete good signs that Chrysler could yet emerge from its chrysalis.

[Source: Detroit News]