Filed under: Trucks/Pickups, Toyota, Earnings/Financials
Toyota calls it: Will sell 200,000 Tundras in 2007
During the 1932 World Series at Wrigley Field, New York Yankee Babe Ruth pointed to the center field bleachers while at bat during the fifth inning. He then knocked one out of the park directly where his finger was pointing. The Babe's famous called shot reminds us of recent comments made by Jim Lentz, executive vice president of Toyota's U.S. sales, about the Toyota Tundra. Last Thursday Lentz said, "We're spending the incentives necessary, given the economics, given a down market, to sell that 200,000 vehicles."
While not as glamorous or direct as Babe Ruth's pointed index finger, in our eyes Lentz effectively pointed to the center field bleachers and called it: Toyota will reach its goal of selling 200,000 Tundra's in 2007, the new full-size pickup's first year of sales. About 97,290 2007 MY Tundras were sold in the first six months of 2007, so 200,000 certainly seems reachable, but by no means in the bag. Just like the Big 3, Toyota has been laying both dealer and customer incentives on the hood of 2007 Tundras to encourage sales, and marketing for the truck has been omnipresent on TV and the web. Toyota disputes, however, the Edmunds.com estimate that incentives for the Tundra amounted to $6,861 per truck last month when 23,150 units were sold.
[Source: The Detroit News]
The pickup market in general is shrinking, about 4.9% so far this year, which means many of the Tundra's sales are conquests, or sales taken away from the other half-ton pickups on the market. We've already concluded the 2007 half-ton Sierra 1500 has been passed in sales by the Tundra, and the entire Sierra line, including heavy-duty models, as well as the Dodge Ram, could both be surpassed by the end of the year.
Still, calling your shot is a dangerous game that could backfire. Ruth hit the homerun, but if the Tundra fails to reach 200,000 in sales for 2007, Toyota will be fielding questions on why its truck isn't selling.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
sca 1:41PM (8/13/2007)
Sounds like Toyota is not so magic after all...... resorting to the same "volume at all cost" business case as the domestics... including incentive loads.
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Don 8:55PM (8/13/2007)
All the big trucks have cash on the hood...Toyota is still going to sell 200,000 of them, just like they said.
Aaron 1:41PM (8/13/2007)
with 5-6k incentives on a brand new launch I guess they will HYUCK HYUCK..
Imagine if GM went there with their new trucks.
They would be eaten alive by the pundits..
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eckre 1:46PM (8/13/2007)
Here is some great automotive television, even with a twinge of historic accomplishment actually. The first truck ever, to get to the north pole.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=aVc62M9Ec5g
Now I know many Napoleon syndrome-ites here (short man's disease) will absolutely get all up and huffy and have a hissy fit right here and now, (like you did with CR's Toyota truck recommendation) but I wonder why the crew from Top Gear didn't take a Ford, Chevy or Dodge...
...busts out laughing...
Actually, I don't wonder about it - none whatsoever.
cheers.
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RicardoHead 2:05PM (8/13/2007)
They also didn't take a Tundra. Toyota builds the best small trucks out there - no surprise.
Phillip 3:18PM (8/13/2007)
Honestly. When has topgear been unbiased towards american cars?
MiniMe 5:06PM (8/13/2007)
"but I wonder why the crew from Top Gear didn't take a Ford, Chevy or Dodge...
...busts out laughing..."
You're convinced that the t.v. show "Top Gear" is some kind of authority on automotive engineering. No wonder you like the Blundra.
Yeah, we're all laughing also, and not along with you, but at you...LOL.
MiniMe 5:06PM (8/13/2007)
"but I wonder why the crew from Top Gear didn't take a Ford, Chevy or Dodge...
...busts out laughing..."
You're convinced that the t.v. show "Top Gear" is some kind of authority on automotive engineering. No wonder you like the Blundra.
Yeah, we're all laughing also, and not along with you, but at you...LOL.
Realisticism 1:49PM (8/13/2007)
About 97,290 2007 MY Tundras were sold in the first six months of 2007, so 200,000 certainly seems reachable..'
Oh really? Well, since the summer months are the hot sales months and things really die down in the latter part of the year, attaining 200,000 is going to take a major push.
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John Neff 1:52PM (8/13/2007)
You didn't finish quoting the sentence, which ends... "but by no means in the bag."
Tony 4:29PM (8/13/2007)
why did you choose to quote an Incentive figure that Edmunds.com have
since revised.
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070810/BUSINESS01/70810035
Thats a shame...I expected a little more from you.
Joe 2:02PM (8/13/2007)
They were saying 200k units in 07 from the beginning. In January they went around at the release events saying that. I was there, I heard it with my own 2 ears.
If you think 200k is laughable wait until you see what their projected sales are once the San Antonio plant hits full stride, 450k...
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Rob 10:46PM (8/13/2007)
I dont think the demand is there for them to sell 450k a year. They will be lucky to hit 300k with this truck. I said this when the truck launched and am standing by it. The numbers will not hold up once the newness of it wears off. If they can barely meet the sales goal for the opening year how do they plan on exceeding that in years to come when new Ram and F150 trucks are launched? Just because they can make 450k a year doesnt mean they can sell that many. Remember Ford wanted to sell 1 million F150s when the 04 came out. They barely cracked 800k. This truck just isn't going to convert many Ford, Gm Dodge buyers, no matter how many hp and gears it has. Titan buyers however....
Tool 2:07PM (8/13/2007)
Considering how soft the truck market is right now, it's interesting that even Toyota would get that aggressive with incentives.
Especially on what seems to be a pretty terrific vehicle. I'm guessing that they need to keep both TMMI and TMMTX humming so Toyota will do whatever it needs to, to make sure that production levels stay high.
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slider912 2:41PM (8/13/2007)
edmunds.com has retracted their earlier estimate of Tundra incentives, having overstated the amount significantly.
http://www.autoobserver.com/2007/08/edmunds-revises.html
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Aaron 3:05PM (8/13/2007)
Edmunds did correct themselves, but the correction is akin to saying, hey mygirlfriend doesn't weigh 260, she only weighs 220.
THye've had to go (predictably) balls deep on incentives which is mildly funny.. Pundits were calling for an easy 200k sales at the start of the year and by most accounts it will be a horserace. As has been stated this is turning into a volume at all costs thing, fueled by pride.
AZMike 2:48PM (8/13/2007)
it's rather interesting to see what mess Toyota has gotten themselves into.
1) the much-hyped San Antonio plant has production capacity for 500,000 units.
2) the factory in Princeton, Indiana (the OLD Tundra factory) has capacity for another 275,000 units, and this includes the "hot selling" Sequoia (remember those??).
you don't need to be a mathematician to see there is LOTS of overcapacity here.
overcapacity+incentives of almost $7,000 per unit=big, bleeding mess.
I can't recall how many times here on Autoblog we've seen all the import fanboys tell us how "smart" the Japanese are by not building gas-guzzlers, and somehow mystically "knowing" market trends before the domestic knuckle-draggers do.
...and don't forget the next time you see one of those touchy-feely-wave-the-flag Toyota commercials that only 52% of Toyota vehicles sold in the USA are built here, down from over 70% less than two years ago.
why is that?
AZMike
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Tony 4:24PM (8/13/2007)
You are just a bitter old man. You claim to own a dealership ( obviously a big 3 dealership) ...It doesn't come as a surprise that you have so much time on your hands to write unsubstantiated crap about Toyota. The 700,000 unsold Silverado in GM inventory might explain all the lack of activity at your dealership.
I suppose you were quoting John Neff when you said the Tundra used $7000 incentive in July. Well sorry to be the bearer of bad news for you. Edmunds has since revised that number to about $4600. That is just $600 more than Chevy. However, the Tundra is still selling for $4000.00 more on the average than Chevy.
FermitTheKrog 2:51PM (8/13/2007)
Ironically, I saw two 2007 Tundra's parked outside Home Depot today. Both had for sale signs on them.
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david 7:13PM (8/13/2007)
and to add to that the tundra is now appearing at some chevy and ford dealers in the used department. too top that, tundra is trying to fill the void with the rental agencies that the others have abandoned.