Filed under: Hybrids/Alternative, Green, Earnings/Financials
Mixed message: JD Power now reports hybrids will have record year
A couple weeks ago, J.D. Power released its Alternative Powertrain Study, which found that hybrid consideration among new car buyers is slipping, while interest in diesels is growing. Today J.D. Power released its 2007 U.S. Hybrid Vehicle Forecast Second Quarter Update, which projects that hybrid sales for 2007 will increase up to 35% this year. Last year, 256,000 hybrids were sold in the U.S., while the report released today indicates that up to 345,000 may be sold by the end of 2007. That would give hybrids a 2.3% share of the total market in the U.S. Sure doesn't sound like interest is slipping to us.And that number is only likely to grow as more hybrids enter the market like the Ford Fusion Hybrid, Chevy Malibu Hybrid, GM's stable of Two-Mode Hybrid SUVs and like models from Dodge and Chrysler. Toyota itself pledges to have a hybrid option for all of its vehicles by 2020.
Nevertheless, hybrids have become an increasingly tough sell based only on their green merits, as new procedures to estimate EPA mileage have driven down their city and highway mileage estimates to more realistic levels. Also consider a report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory that claims in the eight years that hybrids have been on the market in the U.S., they've saved 230 million gallons of fuel. Considering that we use about 385 million gallons of dead dino juice a day in the U.S., that means hybrids have saved us a total of 14 hours of fuel use in 8 years.
[Source: J.D. Power, AutoblogGreen]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
RP 5:10PM (8/02/2007)
This report is based on actual purchase data.
The previous report was from a survey, right? (Asking "what car do you plan/hope to buy next" -- and perhaps mentioning new clean diesel technology?).
Reply
Rambo 12:52AM (8/03/2007)
Many hybrids are being unloaded to fleets. The only hybrid that has any true demand is the Prius. Even the Prius demand is misleading because most of its sales are in Canlifornia.
Even at a $20K premium a diesel makes more sense. The service life on a diesel is 300K+ miles and by that time you'll have spent $40K in replacement batteries in hybrid!
RP 1:01AM (8/03/2007)
A lot of Prius's are sold in Silicon Valley (San Francisco/San Jose). In fact, the Prius is the #1 selling car in this area, which surprised me. Nutty engineers... :-) Article here:
http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_6420656
I was also surprised that of the top 20 cars sold in Silicon Valley, only 2 are US companies -- both trucks:
http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_6420653?nclick_check=1
RP 5:11PM (8/02/2007)
This report is based on actual purchase data.
The previous report was from a survey, right? (Asking "what car do you plan/hope to buy next" -- and perhaps mentioning new clean diesel technology?).
Fun with surveys and statistics. What's that Mark Twain quote?
Reply
Jason 5:17PM (8/02/2007)
As myself and others stated last week, hybrid sales are strong (here in Los Angeles). I guess you just can't trust any study anymore.
Reply
Dave 5:38PM (8/02/2007)
As someone who worked for PIN before (Power Information Network) I know how these consulation firms work.
What you have here is reports and studies done by different people in the office with different thougths and agendas. Of course these are all JD Power employees but these are also car guys and have their own opinions on the car world in general.
So you can have one guy in the office that is a truck guy republican bash everything tough guy that asks permision to run a study from the board. He says I want to do a survey of who hybrid owners are. The board says ok go ahead and come back in three months. If this guy wants to be controvertial to get his view out he lays out his questions in the according manner. On the hybrid satisfaction survey for example, the question read "Did you purchase your hybrid for environmental concerns or for a personal statement to other motorists" The person would think "well I bought it as a personal statement to other motorists so I can make as much an impact for more and more people to change their habits and help the environment". So then this person checks off under "personal statement".
The when the survey comes in all the rightwingers say "hey hey look people buy prius to showoff and not for the environment" They feed off this survey.
This happens by pollsters all the time. If a guy has a sweetspot for diesels he will push a survey that is friendly to an outcome of diesels being chosen over hybrids. For example check this question out:
1-In the next 3 years would you be interested in an unproven hybrid technology with an expensive battery pack
2-Or would you be interested in the next 3 years in a car with a clean diesel engine with performance and reliability with the best of the gasoline engines offered today
Ofcourse many people will checkoff the second one.
So as you see polls and surveys can be skewed. Facts cant.
The Prius has sold more this year than all of last year. Hybrids will just keep growing. Diesels as well but Hybrids are not dying or waning. Who knows we may get the best of both worlds with a diesel hybrid!
Reply
Travis Rassat 10:06PM (8/02/2007)
Great points, Dave.
One thought that I had about the aforementioned article about the "statement" that hybrid buyers make, is that making a statement is a big part of a lot of people's car purchasing - although the statement varies quite a bit. Cars have been a statement of social status since they were first made available to the public. Whether it's a Hummer, a German car, an American car, a Mustang, Mini Cooper, Prius, etc. (name any car) - it's a statement of some sort.
John Cressy 6:23PM (8/02/2007)
The analyst thought GM and Ford sales for July would be slightly lower than last year and Chrysler would break even. Only off by over 8% accross the board. Where are the 30 or so Hurricanes for 2007? We were in a recession for ten months before the 2000 election but, Al Gore said the economy was cooking. The same statistic guys predicted federal surpluses 10 years in the future but, couldn't even tell the truth about 2000. Oh! Ya! Global warming is real and I can tell you in 30 years the east coast will be under water. That rumor started 20 years ago. Only ten years left. Since I am less than 100 feet above sea level, I'm holding out for beach front property. Sounds kinda mystical to me. It's like I think I will say I'm going to do something tomorrow unless a bridge colapses or a plane flies into my office. Anyone can predict a need for Hybrids just like a need for economy cars in 1973-74 and again in 1979. If gas got cheap over night the market would fall out. Just ask the guys who bought RV Campers in 73, 79, and 06 or ask a motorcycle/scooter dealer.
Reply
rv 6:48PM (8/02/2007)
LOL - where are the knuckle-draggers now? Good thing the U.S. car mfgs don't aggressively pursue hybrid technology - it would obviously kill our economy. Though lower MPG ratings on cars = more money for the oil industry, and lords know how we all reap the benefits of that, eh?
Reply
Rambo 12:37AM (8/03/2007)
RV,
I your quest to stick it to big oil you will only stick it to yourself. WHAT WILL YOUR $30K HYBRID BE WORTH AT 60-80K MILES WHEN YOU'RE DUE FOR $10K IN REPAIRS? Can you say ZZZEEERRROOO!
Unless you find an other fool to buy it.
Jon 11:08AM (8/03/2007)
Just in case no one noticed, Rambo is an extremely misinformed troll who loathes hybrid technology beyond all sense or reason. One must have run over him when he was a child. Watch him post and post and post again. You can safely disregard all his comments: they are simply, factually, wrong.
Rambo 3:26PM (8/03/2007)
I stand behind my comments. Why don't you try proving me wrong? OH, THATS RIGHT YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT HYBRID TECHNOLOGY. You couldn't fix a broken toaster!
Jon 2:36PM (8/04/2007)
Hybrids have been around for 10 years now. They have among the highest reliability and resale values one can find in a car. Many have driven way over 100k, so a record exists here. The proof is in all the obvious places you would look for such information: Edmunds, CR, etc., etc. You have to really not want to about it to keep making your completely unfounded claims. There's even a phrase describing the state you are in: willful ignorance.
By the way, Rambo, typing in all caps is considered to be extremely bad etiquette and it detracts from, rather than adds to, your credibility. It creates the impression of a man screaming, waving his arms around in the air and frothing at the mouth. Try to rely more on the strength of your facts and less on the size of your letters.
Jon 12:03AM (8/08/2007)
Hybrid resale really sucks, Rambo, right . . .
I wasn't even looking, this just fell into my lap at Motley Fool (the well-respected personal investment web site).
http://www.fool.com/personal-finance/general/2007/08/07/when-a-new-car-beats-a-used-car.aspx
"You won't find such bargains when shopping for a Toyota Prius or a Honda Civic Hybrid. A new Prius starts at $22,175. A 2006 Prius in excellent condition, according to Kelley Blue Book, might carry a retail value of $22,570.
Yep, you read that correctly. The used hybrid retails for just as much as a new one."
http://www.fool.com/personal-finance/general/2007/08/07/sell-your-car-for-more.aspx
"In rating vehicles for best resale value, Toyota (NYSE: TM) and Honda (NYSE: HMC) had several models among the top performers, including Toyota's hybrid Prius and trendy Scion."
"Everyone knows" what, Rambo?
vdk 8:50PM (8/02/2007)
Finally it's all here for you to see... Hybrids are junk! Nickel battery -> heavy polution.
Diesel is the way... same/better mileage, no batteries and it'll run forever!
Why do you think they use diesels and not hybrids in Europe? We just have to be different eh? And all this because everyone thinks a Prius (is arrr... cool) is a symbol of social status and environmental awareness, crap, there's no such thing!
Reply
Barney 9:29PM (8/02/2007)
"Why do you think they use diesels and not hybrids in Europe?"
Raise the price of diesels, lower the price of hybrids and let's find out.
Rambo 12:43AM (8/03/2007)
Barney,
The key here is resale value! The diesel has a 300K mile service life. The hybrid will go 60-80K miles and require $10K is service, offsetting any resale value.
DIESEL MAKES MORE SENSE
Barney 12:51AM (8/03/2007)
The hybrid will go 60-80K miles and require $10K is service,
How do you know? Is there any hybrid out there that have been taken out at 60 - 80K miles? I know of none.
Rambo 3:35PM (8/03/2007)
Barney,
Everybody knows that a hybrid battery won't make it to 100K miles/7 years. Even if it could its ability to hold a charge is greatly reduced. That equals more gasoline engine operation which equals less fuel economy. Paying a $10K premium for a diesel would still justify itself in the long run. A diesel engine can go at least 300K+ miles with regular maintenance.
Jon 11:41PM (8/07/2007)
1) My hybrid battery is under warranty for 100k.
2) The best I can find, no one has ever had to replace a Prius battery for any reason that wasn't covered by warfanty or caused by and accident.
3) The Nickel batteries in a Prius are no more environmentally harmful than the steel in your car doors. I won't even bother describing why -- it's so easy to find out, you have to be a moron or a liar to say otherwise.