Prediction: US auto market grows, Big 3 market share shrinks
According to Global Insight, the US auto market will grow next year. From 16.2 million cars sold in 2007, the mark will reach 17 million by 2010 and 17.7 million by 2012. Imports will move 4.4 million units that year, up from 3.7 million now.
But by saying that The Big Three have "have lost the baby boomers," Insight predicts five straight years of declining market share for the American makers, eventually losing seven percentage points by 2012. And before they can think about getting that back, they'll have Chinese imports to worry about. With oil expected to remain above $60 per barrel, and competition coming from all sides, the Detroit boys and girls have their work cut out for them. But we would think that a Volt here, a Jeep JT and awesome 300 replacement there, and some of Ford's brilliant Euro product brought over here, could begin to stem the tide... no?
[Source: Automotive News - sub. req'd]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
JL MEALER 7:47PM (3/26/2008)
We would all love to see the BIG THREE grow more powerful, bu the Unions have sent them overseas to Mexico and Canada with NAFTA and GATT. Not a big problem as international trade is good...
How will Americans with service industry jobs (if they can be found), afford to buy any sort of vehicle and not simply work the rest of their lives to make payments?
Take a look at the non-petro powered, non-electric powered MAMC (Mealer American Motor Co) offerings as they get their stuff together. All made in America..
I kinda like it!
WWW.BETTERCONSTRUCTED.COM
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Ryan 11:34AM (5/29/2007)
The Big 3 may lose market share, but GM will make gains. They look to be the only one of the 3 on the right track. The pipelines are filled with the right product with way more to come...
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Brian 12:00PM (5/29/2007)
@ Ryan,
I agree with you that GM is going in the right direction. All they need is a couple of years for consumers to realize this as well. I also belive that Ford is starting to turn toward where they need to be (I'm not saying they are there right now). It should be interesting to see what happens in the next few years.
Fabulo 11:45AM (5/29/2007)
So if I understand these numbers correctly, out of 16+M cars sold in the US market, 3.7M will be 'imports', that's less than 25%, so 75% of all vehicles sold are good old american products?
I did not think the 2.5 piece was so big. Or the import part was so low. So if someone with access to that subscription service can re-read the article, and maybe cross check the numbers with actual manufacturers number...
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John 11:50AM (5/29/2007)
I think the new generation of car buyers (who do not remember the 80s) will strongly consider purchasing from the big 3.
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Edsel 12:36PM (5/29/2007)
Two things will save domestic transportation (auto) companies. 1.) Re-engineering & manufacturing a new domestic mass-transportation system. The Interstate system as we know it, is terminal and on life-support. 2.) Pure unadulterated flag waving patriotism showing, manufacturing pride, product ingenuity, and a lot of multi-ethnic face time. We are the most ethnically diverse nation on the planet for a very simple reason, opportunity.
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rrr 1:39PM (5/29/2007)
Well those who say that GM is turning around are wrong.
Let's look at hybrids......but do not look on a hybrid as a fuel saving tech....look at it as a new technology.
Toyota started selling this new technology in 1997, GM has yet to date make a single vehicle with that new technology.
My point is this, GM is not capble of making quick changes to keep pace, let alone lead.
Let's say tomorrow very light wight wagons will become super popular. Seeing how longit takes GM to udjust one can say that it will take GM 5 or 6 years to comeup with a wagon that is very light and nible and gets good mpg (non hybrid)
Sure many say GM simply did not WANT to develop a hybrid, but i think that they were UNABLE to make it on time.
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rrr 1:44PM (5/29/2007)
Just to be clear again Prius came out in 1997, we are in 2007.
Ten years......that is a long time, it is basicaly 2.5 car cycles.....good cars get a complete redisign every 4 years.
Look at Civic and Corolla, Corolla is almost 7 years old Civic is 2. Basically a 5 year difference and Civic is way way better. For GM this period is twice that, 10 years.
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Rick Lyon 2:04PM (5/29/2007)
US car makers need to rethink everything. I have always ran from domestic cars for many reasons.
1-Looks(minus 3-4 cars, most US cars are ugly, boring or hideous
2-reliability (after warranty ends, the problems begin if you make it that far)
3-Features/materials/design with respects to the interior
4-Price too many mid $20k prices and up
5-Too many V6 required to get any options
6-Fuel efficiency
7-Bloated, heavy look
8-Poor resale value
They have a lot to work on IMO.
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ETR 2:07PM (5/29/2007)
Regardless of the predictions, the simple truth is that the big 3 have not been producing cars that many buyers want and unless that changes pronto, sales will continue to decline. Yes, they have many great looking products on the way, but it's late... Once again, the short-term thinking of many US business leaders hurts in the long run (I inlcude the auto unions here too).
Eric
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Jon 2:23PM (5/29/2007)
What's stopping GM and Ford from bringing over their diesel engines from Europe? Minus some minor changes for our market the R&D has already been paid for. This sounds like the plan the European manufacturers are planning to do, now that low-sulfur fuel is on sale over here. This could easily give them a big kick in mileage. And diesel is a whole lot cheaper than gasoline right now.
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Don 4:22PM (5/29/2007)
I do not, honestly, expect GM's market share to ever increase again.
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motorman 4:59PM (5/29/2007)
roger smith is at fault for GM problems because of those bad 80s cars and trucks YET they still pay him $1 million a year pension.
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That One Person 5:05PM (5/29/2007)
This is one of those "No Duh!" articles. More companies = less space. Of course the big three wont regain the market share they once had. It's not rocket science..
Also RRR, GM has been building hybrid busses for a few years now. I think those count as a vehicle. Also, GM is coming out with real hybrid cars/trucks fairly soon. Yeah, it took them a while but at least they are doing it.
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Barney 5:22PM (5/29/2007)
North American car makers are still making cars they think we want. The distinction is not gaining them sales. The family sedan is no longer a Beaumont or Impala. It's time to drop nostalgia and copy the Eastern designs. People retiring now will only buy one or two more cars and one's that are reliable.
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KJC 6:16PM (5/29/2007)
I agree with the Big 3 decline in future market share.
The Big 3 core problems is management that concentrates on just profits and not about product.
I am 4 years out of college and the majority of my friends do not have or considered a Big 3 product.
Only my friends families that finanically benefit by the Big 3 drive their product.
The are facing a huge uphill battle.
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SherbornSean 9:28PM (5/29/2007)
rrr,
Are you aware of the Silverado, Vue, and Aura hybrids? Did you know that the new dual mode Tahoe hybrid is a generation ahead of the Prius? Did you realize that the Volt is 2 generations ahead of the Prius?
Do you know which stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had the best performance this year?
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Barney 10:09PM (5/29/2007)
"Are you aware of the Silverado, Vue, and Aura hybrids? Did you know that the new dual mode Tahoe hybrid is a generation ahead of the Prius? Did you realize that the Volt is 2 generations ahead of the Prius?"
So where are they? If they were being sold or even advertised, perhaps some people would look at them. How can a car that is not in production be two generations ahead of one that is?
roadside observer 2:24PM (5/30/2007)
"With oil expected to remain above $60 per barrel, and competition coming from all sides, the Detroit boys and girls have their work cut out for them."
That's odd, $60 oil affects ONLY the domestics?
I could have SWORN that the Japanese made gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs, too, like the 5.7L Tundra, Titan, Sequoia, Land Cruiser, Armada, LX470/GX470, QX56, even the 16mpg Ridgeline ... those vehicles must be a figment of my imagination. After all, the news media knows it all.
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Ben K. 6:02PM (5/30/2007)
With headliner like that, it wouldn't suprise anyone. The media doesn't help matters any, by insinuating the U.S. industry isn't doing well. The media puts a one sided spin on the industry constantly. During the past year and half the domestics have been the whipping boy. It's time to layoff, thousands of workers have lost their jobs and the rethoric continues. Asian's couldn't compete here, if they had to play by the same rules they impose on our exports to their homeland. Asian's don't allow large numbers of imports, why should we? Wages are flat and the loss of industry jobs will further lower American's standard of living. After exporting thousands of jobs south of our border, now illegals come here to take more. The U.S. has no trade policy and no border control. None of this makes any sense, only in America. Nobody seems to care, we are our own worst enemy.
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