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Report: Diesels will outsell hybrids in the U.S. by 2012
Right now in the U.S., hybrids are all the rage among drivers who want to be more green in what they drive, but it may not stay that way for much longer. New research by Ricardo and UBS is projecting that total sales of hybrid and diesel vehicles will hit 2.7 million annually by 2012, and that oil burners will account for 1.5 million of those sales. For those not good with math, the report is claiming that within five years, diesels will outsell hybrids in the U.S. The report concludes that the added complexity of hybrid systems with their batteries, electric motors and internal combustion engines won't be able to overcome the cost advantage of a modern diesel engine, even with the expensive exhaust treatment systems needed to make diesels meet our new stricter emissions requirements.
Toyota, however, is projecting that it will achieve cost parity between hybrids and conventional drivetrains in the next few years. More likely is a scenario in which fuel efficiency and emissions requirements reach a point where diesel-hybrids become a necessity. As batteries improve and Series Hybrids like the Chevy Volt become a reality, diesels will be the likely choice as range extenders. In the short term, diesels are moving full speed ahead, at least from European manufacturers, so we'll just have to wait and see how American drivers take to them.
[Source: Ricardo]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
Viv 8:13PM (5/25/2007)
Even though i don't care for V-dubs they seems to be the best value for the money. I would kill for a 47MPG right now without having to put up with the over pricing of the prius
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Dave 8:15PM (5/25/2007)
The point is not to burn another type of fuel, wheather its oil, corn, or water. The point is to burn less of it.
A diesel still cannot operate on electric mode for stop and go tarffic situations. Diesels cannot navigate you emission free around an underground parking lot.
The best scenario is a Diesel Hybrid vehicle. I would buy that.
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Cody Peterson 8:22PM (5/25/2007)
Hybrid technology is getting better, however, diesel technology has a better track record (reliability, etc.) and has been around long enough to prove worthy. The biggest problem facing hybrids is that the technology for all-electric vehicles is not there because battery technology (and cost) does not make it possible. Diesels, however, are very efficient and have made leaps and bounds in technological advances (especially over the last few years alone) and have shown lots of promise (particularly in Europe)... in terms of the American question of diesel adoption, personally I don't see it as going to be "not popular" but rather very popular, if the politicians and the green thumbs of the world who constantly try to push MPG on us would get over their pre-misconceptions about diesels and allow them in
Amber 8:18PM (5/25/2007)
Dave you are correct, I would like a diesel hybrid as well.
Whats funny is a diesel hybrid is still a "Hybrid". So if diesel hybrids grow Diesel will never be the majority. Right?? Both versions of the hybrid will outsell the diesel.
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Phil 8:20PM (5/25/2007)
Why do people that question the reliability of hybrids not own one? They sit on the sidelines and raise issues with it instead.
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scappy 8:23PM (5/25/2007)
The real reason for this is manufacturing costs. A small diesel engine does not cost much more to produce than a gas ICE. The batteries, transmissions, and control systems of hybrids are inherently expensive to produce. This has little or nothing to do with which is "greener". A diesel just gives a better bang for the buck for both the manufacturer and consumer.
Not to mention battery technology is still a ways off.
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AdamWest 8:25PM (5/25/2007)
Does this research firm talk about Diesels outselling Gas Hybrid cars only? Or all hybrids?
If its all hybrids then their conclusion is certainly flawed.
Hybrids can be gas, diesel, ethanol, Natural Gas, or whatever else.
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ruggels 8:26PM (5/25/2007)
Dave, the unfortunate thing about highlighting all the hybrid's advantages and none of it's shortfalls in an argument against diesel technology, is exactly that, it's one sided.
While Hybrids clearly are adventageous in urban scenarios, they have yet to match diesel fuel economy in extra-urban, that's highway, scenarios. In those scenarios, hybrid vehicles are burning more fuel... thus your opening sentence works against you. If you commute, on highways, as many Americans do, you're going to burn 'less of it' during the majority of your commute if you're driving a diesel car.
Your final point is perhaps your strongest, we need diesel hybrids, we will pay for diesel hybrids, the market is there, and hopefully, when Audi and BMW bring them to market people will put their money were their mouths are.
(disclaimer: I currently own a hybrid, two tdis, and two petrol powered cars... this disclaimer provided to prevent comments implying I'm unaware of the advantages of x over y... as I own all three - Oddly though, the only reason I own the hybrid is because VW can't get their sh*t together as far as bluetooth and smartkey are concerned - though I sorely miss the interior of all my VW products the moment I step into the camry so here's to hybrid tdis, the best of all worlds).
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ruggels 8:29PM (5/25/2007)
"Hybrids can be gas, diesel, ethanol, Natural Gas, or whatever else."
AdamWest would you be kind enough to link us to some readily available, via any major car manufacturer, diesel hybrid, ethanol hybrid, natural gas hybrid, or 'whatever else' hybrid currently on the market? I'm not aware of any at current. I've driven a half dozen of these cars, though all were at an alternative fuel expo and none of them were produced by any major corporation.
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AdamWest 8:41PM (5/25/2007)
Ruggels,
They are not available. I know that. But they can be. Gas/Hybrid is available. Diesel/Hybrid is coming for 2009. Other hybrids I dont know of but the can be made. Thats all.
My point is they paint the Hybrid with one brush and say it will lose out to Diesel. But what type of hybrid? And how do they know Hybrids will not improve considerably with more R&D? Look at computer hardrives. The same looking hard drive can have 500 GB now when 10 years ago it held 2GB. Now 2GB is on a USB chip weighing 1 ounce.
ruggels 8:51PM (5/25/2007)
Oh sure, I concur, Hybrid tech will continue to become more and more competitive and cheaper and cheaper, we already know toyota is getting ready to release cheaper hybrid drive, nissan has has cheaper alternatives abroad for some time (ie: the cube), and telsa's getting ready to become a major player in the battery supply industry.
I'm pretty much with you here, owning both sorts of cars, I appreciate both and don't get into pissing contests much regarding either anymore... and like you, I just want a TDI hybrid because let's face it, while diesel provides competitive fuel economy vs hybrid options, it's quite a bit worse for our health.
Sam Abuelsamid 8:37PM (5/25/2007)
Peugeot will be bringing out a diesel hybrid version of their new 308 model in mid-2008 http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/03/22/new-peugeot-308-to-offer-diesel-hybrid-powertrain/ and when GM introduced the Volt they said the E-Flex platform would also be available with a diesel engine for the range extender. There aren't any diesel hybrid cars available right now but they will be coming in the next few years.
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abdul 8:49PM (5/25/2007)
Diesel was invented in 1898. Its 2007. Why is a 100 year old concept such a leap forward? Of Course diesels are efficient. Of course they are better than gas engines of today. Of course they are more hightech than ever. But I doub't Rudolf Diesel in 1898 dreamed people would see his invention in 2007 as the second coming. He would have thought we long moved on by now to something else.
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Carly 9:00PM (5/25/2007)
Abdul,
My grandmother who is 73 tells me 50 years ago she really thought we would be flying by now. She thought people would be living on the moon and all homes would have a robot to help cook and clean. She tells me many many many people in the 1950's thought this would happen by year 2000.
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The Rest Of The US (except the East Coast which sucks too) 9:23PM (5/25/2007)
Abdul-
unfortunately one of the main problems is that we haven't had any world wars, which tend to catapult technology at a huge pace (compare 1910 to 1920,or 1938 to 1948.) I guess I'll take a slower pace of technology advancement over millions of people dead, but could you imagine the pace of development had there been a non-nuclear WWIII?
Jon 9:04PM (5/25/2007)
Surely Toyota will realize greater economies of scale as they continue to increase hybrid production, but their claims of cost parity with conventional drivetrains doesn't sound believable. What can they possibly change in to offset the cost of an electric motor, several hundred pounds of batteries, and all the additional accessories needed to make it work? It doesn't add up.
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goat 9:03PM (5/25/2007)
News flash: hybrids don't create free energy.
Unless you're in a lot of stop and go driving situations, diesels (and not diesel hybrids) make more sense.
For most people, taking the batteries out of a Prius, and replacing the "synergy drive" with a six-speed manual, would result in a more efficient vehicle.
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Will 10:53PM (5/25/2007)
I look forward to Honda, BMW, etc. arriving in the USA with diesel engines. I lusted after a VW TDI for a long time, but in the end I could not justify purchasing one for a couple of reasons.
The first issue was the purchase cost. Sure you are going to burn less fuel, but the car is going at 25k with zero options. Compare that to say a Civic or Mazda 3 that cost $16k to 18k and get 35 to 40 mpg and I realized that I could never drive off the extra cost in fuel savings. The second issue was the reliability factor. VW is notorious for electrical issues and the parts are not cheap to fix once out of warranty. I was actually at the Chicago auto show this year in the VW display Jetta when I overheard a couple walk by and admire the car and then speak of a friend they knew that had horrible luck and repair bills when their VW was just out of warranty, and all of this was within earshot of the Volkswagen reps in the booth.
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Mike G 9:16PM (5/25/2007)
Hey, if diesels are soooo great, how come you can't buy one in the US? I know I know the Germans have a few, but why so many more hybrid options, if the new diesels are so fantabulous?
PS - I like diesels too, I've driven one, they're fun, they've got ooomp - but how come none here in the states...
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Doogs 8:49AM (5/26/2007)
"Hey, if diesels are soooo great, how come you can't buy one in the US? I know I know the Germans have a few, but why so many more hybrid options, if the new diesels are so fantabulous?
PS - I like diesels too, I've driven one, they're fun, they've got ooomp - but how come none here in the states..."
Try reading the Ricardo report. The reason diesel's been pretty limited here is a combination of infrastructure and regulatory environment.
Infrastructure in that, until last October, U.S. diesel was basically tractor fuel. Too dirty to work with the latest European emission control technology. The the transition to ultra-low sulfur fuel brings the U.S. to more or less parity.
Regulatory environment in that California's emissions regs are among the strictest on the planet, and focus more heavily on particulates (where diesel is weak) than the rest of U.S., Europe, etc. Prior to the new fuel, there was no way for a passenger diesel to pass the Cali regulations - which are also followed in NY, MA, ME, and VT.
So, basically, no way to utilize the latest technology, and no possibility of selling in Cali, NY, or MA (which account for something like 30-40% of most manufacturers' volume).
Now that those hurdles have been cleared (thanks to ULSD), it seems like every automaker and their dog has announced plans for a U.S. diesel.