We all know the auto industry is changing to a greener shade of exhaust, but how much and how fast is the big unknown. Frost & Sullivan, a 46-year-old global analysis and consulting company, has attempted to calculate these rates of change, and today released some of that information. The takeaway number for me is that F&S thinks that 69 percent of all vehicles globally will continue to run on gasoline in 2015. Another 26 percent will use diesel. So that's 95 percent right there still sucking on dinojuice. About another six percent (which gives 101 percent, but I'm guessing that's due to rounding) will be gas-electric hybrids. 2015 is only eight years away, but there doesn't seem to be that much of a change from today, except for an increase in the number of hybrids. Thanks to emissions regulations in some countries, these cars will burn cleaner, but they'll still need crude oil to operate, which isn't good.

Here are a few numbers (see F&S's full press release after the jump for more):
  • Diesel engines will increase their market share in India from 29 percent in 2005 to 50 percent by 2015.
  • "Alternative fuel vehicles" will increase to three million worldwide by 2015, with ethanol and natural gas vehicles expected to be the most prominent among them (obviously, F&S is not counting flex-fuel vehicles the way the Auto Alliance does).
[Source: Frost & Sullivan]
Global Environmental Concerns Increase Focus on Advanced Engine Technologies


LONDON, April 16/PRNewswire/ -- Industries across the world are facing increasing pressure to help minimise threats to the environment, and the automotive industry is no exception. Rising concerns about the potential damage to the environment from vehicle emissions are forcing vehicle manufacturers (VMs) to focus on developing advanced engine technologies to control emissions, improve fuel economy and enhance vehicle performance.

"Complying with stringent emission norms and offering increased fuel savings and better performance are some of the important factors that VMs and suppliers are working towards in terms of powertrain," says Frost & Sullivan Senior Research Analyst Vijayendra R. Rao. "There is a definite trend toward advanced valvetrain systems for gasoline engines, increased penetration of direct injection for gasoline vehicles, engine downsizing and turbocharging.

If you are interested in a virtual brochure, which provides manufacturers, end users, and other industry participants with an overview of the latest analysis of the Strategic Analysis of Global Markets for Engine Technologies, then send an e-mail to Michael Banks, Corporate Communications, at michael.banks@frost.com with your full name, company name, title, telephone number, fax number and e-mail address. Upon receipt of the above information, an overview will be sent to you by e-mail.

Despite the focus on developing and promoting environmentally friendly engine types, 69 percent of vehicles globally will continue to run on gasoline in 2015 - a significant sum. 26 percent of vehicles are likely to use diesel, while approximately 6.0 percent will be gas-electric hybrid vehicles.

Gasoline vehicles will be tend to predominate in the major automotive markets such as North America and Japan, though hybrid vehicles will also gain popularity in both regions. Diesel engines will establish a strong presence in Europe and India, with their market share in India set to grow from 29 percent in 2005 to 50 percent by 2015.

Alternative fuel vehicles will also gain market share as the global focus on reducing emissions increases. The number of these vehicles will increase to 3.0 million worldwide by 2015, with ethanol and natural gas vehicles expected to be the most prominent among them. Hybrid vehicles will dominate the market for alternative powertrain technologies.

Advanced valvetrain technologies such as variable valvetrain (VVT) are fast gaining in popularity and look set to displace conventional fixed timing systems for gasoline vehicles. Global penetration rates of these technologies will reach 25 to 30 percent by 2015. Injection technologies will follow the same trend, gaining an edge over fixed timing for gasoline engines, as these help comply with emission norms. They are likely to attain penetration rates of 15 to 20 percent in gasoline vehicles worldwide.

Turbocharged engines will appear in a large number of diesel vehicles globally, with penetration rates expected to reach 10 to 15 percent by 2015 in North America alone.

However, VMs and suppliers who are planning to introduce advanced engine and alternative powertrain technologies face a considerable challenge in the high costs of these systems.

"This will have a positive impact on their penetration rates, which are likely to exceed 55 percent among gasoline vehicles in North America by 2015," says Rao. "Going forward, future-generation vehicles will also witness downsized engines with additional boosting capacity to retain the same power, while reducing emissions and fuel consumption."

Strategic Analysis of Global Markets for Engine Technologies, part of the Automotive Subscription, provides an overview of different engine technologies such as valvetrain, boosting and injection technologies in the following regions: Europe, North America, Japan, India, South Africa, Russia and China. The study also analyses the uptake of these technologies and the state of the market in each region. Interviews with the press are available.

Frost & Sullivan, a global growth consulting company, has been partnering with clients to support the development of innovative strategies for more than 40 years. The company's industry expertise integrates growth consulting, growth partnership services and corporate management training to identify and develop opportunities. Frost & Sullivan serves an extensive clientele that includes Global 1000 companies, emerging companies and the investment community by providing comprehensive industry coverage that reflects a unique global perspective, and combines ongoing analysis of markets, technologies, econometrics and demographics. For more information, visit www.frost.com.


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