California trends spell disaster for 'Big 2.5'
California is said to be a trendsetter in many aspects of American life. Some of these developments have been for the betterment of the automotive world (we'll let you decide that in the comments) and some have been decidedly negative (the 91-octane swill they call "gas" comes to mind). But for Detroit's major automakers, recent figures have shown that the big two and half are having a hard time selling their wares in The Golden State.The research firm R.L. Polk and Company has compiled the last six months of vehicle registrations in California and has come up with two shocking statistics. First, Detroit's finest only account for 31.4 percent of new vehicles on California roads and second, Toyota garners more market share than both GM and Ford, combined.
Many factors are attributed to this trend, with data pointing towards Californians' interest and eventual purchase of smaller vehicles and pickup trucks. The latter seems to be the biggest sticking point for Detroit, as large truck, SUV and minivan sales have tanked in the western state, with one notable exception being Ford's F-series line of pickups.
If this movement begins moving towards the Atlantic, as many of California's trends have done in the past, hopefully Detroit will recognize it now and be able to stem the tide before it envelops more of their rapidly decreasing market share.
[Source: Automotive News - Registration Required]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)
Spytap 12:07PM (8/21/2006)
I'm sure that part of it is because gas is so much more expensive here than everywhere else. Right now, I'm filling up with 3.70 for premium, while the rest of the country hovers around 2.85 for regular. When you're stuffing that into your SUV, those 8 miles to the gallon start looking a little shabby in comparison to a crossover.
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Jeff 12:32PM (8/21/2006)
Give me a big American engine and an acre of sheet metal for the hood. California can keep the econo boxes. Toyota's performance division about sums up how I feel about them (Toyota Racing Development - "TRD"). Now, let's all say TRD real fast. Yep, pretty much sums it up. For those of you who missed it, well, if I have to explain...
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Chris 12:35PM (8/21/2006)
I'm not sure if states such as Texas will follow in CA's footsteps anytime soon but this trend is no suprise. US consumers are slowly changing their perception of smaller vehicles while GM/Ford/DCX still equate compact with down-market, low profit margin products.
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wannabe hollywood type 12:37PM (8/21/2006)
Everyone here drives something from Honda or Toyota, but they want to really drive a BM or a Merc--just like the rich people do. American large SUVs do well here. We live the lifestyles of the rich and famous, but if we have a beer budget...we can always dream
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unglam big 3 12:40PM (8/21/2006)
#3, driving an american car is not glam
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fizzandpop 12:49PM (8/21/2006)
Every house in the Bay Area comes with a free Audi. Or so it would appear.
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9000revs 12:50PM (8/21/2006)
US Consumers are slowly adapting to trends in the rest of the
world where gas has always been double or triple US prices.
People realize that they do need a V8 powered hi-hp huge
automobile to go to work in. I think this trend will continue.
The Japanese automakers have known this for some time now and
hence have a bevy of small to medium-sized fuel efficient
vehicle in the market already. US Automakers are just not
forward-thinking enough, in my opinion. The Marketplace will
dictate what change needs to occur from the manufacturers. :)
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Whydrive 1:00PM (8/21/2006)
I see a bunch of folks driving BMW, Mercedes, and Porsches in California. 6- and 8-cylinder engines are definitely not needed. Those manufacturers should be offering fuel-efficient 4-cylinders. Save the earth.
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The other Bob 1:00PM (8/21/2006)
I am betting that you would see that import gass guzzlers, like Toyota SUV's are doing better in CA than the rest of the country too.
I am not sure gas mileage is the whole explaination. I think Californians just have a wierd thing for imports.
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tj 1:01PM (8/21/2006)
Detroit closes its eyes and hopes for the governement to keep it competitive by... giving Detroit tax breaks? Putting a burden on new technologies where Detroit is behind? Making small cars heavier?
And that really helped in the 70s, didn't it?
The dollar is every American's best friend, and if Toyota will make a better truck, they'll buy it.
So, after not being able to make profitable compact cars midsize cars, and luxury cars, ehem, well, SUVs and truck sales are down, and the ones being bought are not made by the big 2.5, or won't be for long.
What will help? A quantum leap?
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Aki 1:04PM (8/21/2006)
"Every house in the Bay Area comes with a free Audi. Or so it would appear."
No no, they like to pretend they're frugal and progressive, so they buy a cheaper Passat. By cheaper I mean $40,000.
What the 2.5 need to realize is that gas isn't going to get cheaper. China's investing heavily and global demand is increasing, even in the midst of alternative fuels and hybrids. I expect prices to eventually hit $4, as we're still cheaper than gas in Europe and Japan.
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Shawn 1:06PM (8/21/2006)
"Save the earth?" ...Earth will still be here after we're long extinct (Yes, it is a law of biology that all life form will become extinct). Earth will recover and go on until the sun burns out. All we're doing is to buy ourselves a few more hundred years. Who cares. We're just a dot in billion year of existence. Live and let die.
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jamie 1:07PM (8/21/2006)
When truckin' off to UC, I had to dodge so many Toyotas that I thought I was on the Ginza in Tokyo and not the Santa Ana Freeway in Los Angeles!
I pointed this out to the Big 3 a couple of years ago with no reponse. Guess they weren't interested. The parking lots here are still filled with Nippon wanna-be racers. Yuk.
It was nice to see a resurgence of Yankee pride when Chryco offered the new RWD Magnum, Charger and 300 for sale. That put a noticeable dent in the ol' Emperor's budget.
Chevy was coming along nicely too recently with the Cobalt and the Lutz-ified Impala. But that was probably just the incentive programs at work.
Ford tanked. (except for the quintessential Mustang).
Yup, my guess is that all of Cali is just waiting for the Big 3 (or 2.5) to fully reintroduce RWD. Then they will be running circles around the Japanese again. :)
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Carlos 1:19PM (8/21/2006)
This might just be an urban legend, but I've heard CA has 91 octane 'premium' gas because a lot of people use (whether they need it or not) premium gas. Enough that it has to be watered down with 87 to meet the demand, or we'd run out.
I don't see what the big deal is with our buying habits. Life is different in every state... I would guess that proportionally, we have fewer people who tow, more people who commute more miles, more days when you can see and smell the smog, more driving in traffic, more urban driving and parking, and smaller properties & garages. We also have more people obsessed with safety.
I was too young to remember the early adoption and shift towards Japanese cars, but once it started it was self-perpetuating due to all those happy owners and word of mouth. Maybe the very high proportion of familes that haven't been in California for long had something to do with it too.
In any case, it's not Toyotaland yet, nor is it all small cars at all. It's just more well mixed, with more people willing to look at more options before buying their vehicle.
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bernie 1:19PM (8/21/2006)
As anyone in California already knows this has been taking plave since the late 1970 and early 1980s. I can remember California family members 20 years ago visiting me back east and marveling at how many domestic vehicles they saw. "It's all Corollas, Maximas and Accords where we live," they'd say. My visits out there confirmed that.
I think it shows that Californians aren't swayed by bklind patriotism - a fact echoed by the way they voted for president in 2000 and 2004. It's a lesson the rest of the 9-11 lemmings in the Red states need to learn as well.
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joshj 1:28PM (8/21/2006)
"I think it shows that Californians aren't swayed by bklind patriotism - a fact echoed by the way they voted for president in 2000 and 2004. It's a lesson the rest of the 9-11 lemmings in the Red states need to learn as well."
I agree 100% and enjoy my scion... The big 2.5 just doesn't have a clue about what is selling. Sure the colbalt ss has 200bhp, but my tc still looks better (in every way!) and will probably last way longer... same can be said for the 300bhp dodge calliber vs STI, WRX, and EVO...
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UH2L 1:43PM (8/21/2006)
I think we should start only watching imported movies. :-) Then Californians will know how Big 2 1/2 Detroit auto industry employees feel. With movies like "Snakes on a Plane", they can't say they're putting out much quality in their products.
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Ethan 1:46PM (8/21/2006)
I agree with # 14 and 15. I do give DCX a thumb up for having the balls to give the USA a hatchback but they cheaped way out on the interior. Could have been way better.
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Jeff the Baptist 1:47PM (8/21/2006)
Actually the dominance of imports probably has something to do with the coast California sits on. Importing vehicles to the West Coast from Japan and the rest of Asia has got to be easier (and therefore cheaper) than doing the same back East. Granted now that the Japanese are making cars here, it is less of an issue than it once was, but I'm sure it is still an issue especially for the smaller import manufacturers with little manufacturing presence in the US.
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Jeff Banks 1:55PM (8/21/2006)
Around Ventura County (where I live) one wonders if American car companies actually sell cars here. I went on vacation out of state and was rather shocked to see how many people drove domestic cars (I figured most of them were rental cars given that I was mostly at tourist places).
Compare the interior of a Honda Accord vs. a Chevrolet Impala. The exterior maybe what drives people to the car lot, but the interior is the thing you actually have to live with for the next 5-10 years. It just seems like GM is disconnected with the rest of the world (plus they're wasting money on developing multiple interiors for duplicate cars/trucks which could be a problem).
Plus gas prices are INSANE here, and (I know you're all sick of hearing it, but maybe some exmployee will read this) GM is falling out of step in the EXACT SAME WAY THEY DID IN THE 1970's. Are you guys asleep at the wheel over there in Detroit?
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