Jerry Flint takes on the issue of plug-in hybrids
The lovable curmudgeon Jerry Flint directs his keen analytical eye towards plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and why the market shouldn't expect them any time soon. The concern seems to mainly revolve around battery technology, or rather the lack there of. If one simply looks at the current state-of-the-art in nickel metal hydride (NiMH) cells, it's an understandable source of skepticism, but one that is almost certainly on the verge of becoming an outdated argument. For proof of this, we simply need to take a look at two markets that have recently taken advantage of significant leaps forward in lithium battery technology - RC models, and power tools. We're guessing that Flint doesn't play with many toy cars or gut his bathroom on a regular basis, and that's understandable. But for anyone that has seen what modern lithium-polymer and lithium-manganese battery technology can do when combined with the latest in motor technology, it seems almost laughable to ignore the possible applications for PHEVs.
Certainly, there's a large difference between getting a Sawzall to cut through more walls per charge and somehow incorporating the same technology into an automobile, and Mr. Flint is technically correct when he says that PHEVs are "not now" viable. But give battery technology a few more years to mature, and we suspect that the anti-anything-new crowd will need to find some other reason to complain.
[Source: Forbes.com]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
UtilityMaximizer 8:10PM (5/30/2006)
Is there a technological reason that a hybrid couldn't use some combination of NiMH and Lithium Ion batteries, to gain some of the benefits of both (and some of the weaknesses of both, of course)? The primary problem with Lithium Ion batteries is weight, right?
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Takeo 8:13PM (5/30/2006)
I agree with this Post. Anyone who's been flying electric model airplanes knowns the quantum leap in performance Lithium Polymer battery technology has given the Electic RC movement. Indeed in many ways they're in a position to compete with the Methenol powered glow powered planes in both power to weight and flight duration. One only imagines what would happen if this technology were applied to cars.
Most Litihium Polymer batteries and brushless motors are exposed to far more demanding conditions ( pound for pounmd) in model airplanes than they ever yould be for cars, and most batteries last quite a long time if not abused, (I fly a 200 Watt/lb model, at 15 min at full throttle, on a 11.1v 1300 Mah battery pack). If this lighter, more power dense technology makes it into the next gen Prius, 100MPG is quite within the realm of possibility.
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Chris 9:14PM (5/30/2006)
Takeo, did you even read the article? Namely, the part where Flint talked about the cooling issues of large scale Lithium batteries?
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Keith 10:15PM (5/30/2006)
Isn't the cost an issue? Even small battery packs can be $50-100 for RC applications, no idea how that would translate to OEM costs and what a HUGE jump in demand for the materials needed would affect cost.
A good laptop battery can be $200+
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Mike 10:24PM (5/30/2006)
Takeo,
The automotive environment is next to none in harshness. Comparing a model airplane to a vehicle that has to start in alaska or survive a summer in the salty air of florida?
Let's try this: Put your airplane in an oven and bake at 109 degrees c (that's 228 F). Then pull it out and try and fly it...
That's what an automotive battery has to survive (and then some). Better yet cook it at 109 C then splash some cold water on it...Like when you go through a puddle in the winter time.
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r.yo 10:31PM (5/30/2006)
I'm disappointed; I expected Jerry Flint to expose the concept of a "100 mpg plug-in hybrid" for the spurious claim that it is. That's what curmudgeons are for.
"mpg" does not represent the efficiency of a plug-in hybrid. A plug-in has TWO energy sources propelling the car down the road; the fuel in the tank feeding the onboard engine, AND the coal/gas/uranium that was burnt generating the electricity to top off the batteries each night. "mpg" only counts one of those power sources.
If you add plug-in capability to a 50 mpg hybrid and you now go 100 miles while burning a gallon of fuel, you haven't doubled your efficiency to 100mpg, you've just replaced the gallon of fuel it would normally require to go that second 50 miles with a certain amount of electrical charge from a separate power source.
My non-plug-in/non-hybrid car gets 100mpg if I start at the top of a steep hill and drive to the bottom. It's the same logic; I've just replaced a fully-charged battery with a full tank of... gravity. (Sorry about the rhyming metaphor).
I think the plug-in hybrid idea is worth pursuing, especially if your utility company can generate electricity in a cheaper and/or less polluting (depending on your priorities) manner than your car's hybrid system, but to sell the technology it as an "mpg booster" is intellectually dishonest.
Not that that's stopped anyone before... :)
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Steve 10:46PM (5/30/2006)
Mr. Flint is like a closed book to new Ideas.. At this point if we had plug ins for short trips we could use a removable battery pack (make it removable like the seats in a SUV) for trips 50 miles and under and then use the car in traditional Hybrid mode for long travel. We can't say all alternate fuels and systems don't work we just have to open our minds to new ideas! And there is no reason to keep waiting a E85 hybrid plugin could provide every family a second car for light duty.
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CptMystic 12:03AM (5/31/2006)
Tell anyone who had a Rav4 EV or a Saturn EV1 that batteries are not viable.
Then factor in several years of advances in battery technology. Yes, batteries are expensive, but so is maintenance on engines...and EVs have fewer moving parts than either a hybrid or an internal combustion engine.
The truth is, you could build a completely plug-in commuter car now - and in fact some companies do - it's just the big automakers aren't ready to go there.
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RC fan 12:14AM (5/31/2006)
As an RC person, I have to say I'm not really sold on LIon.
My RC car uses NiCads. They're not super dense, but they are fantastic a producing power rapidly. NiMH is more dense, but doesn't give up power (or accept it) as fast. My NiCad car obliterates gas cars on performance (acceleration and top speed), but runtime is vastly worse.
I use LIons and LI-Polys at work every day. They're just not as good at being batteries as a NIMH is. Yes, they are light, which is why my RC airplane uses them. And it's why RC helicopters use nothing else now. But they charge slowly and if you discharge them quickly, they damage themselves. It's well worth the trouble for an RC helicopter, where you have no other choice. But there's no way you could charge and discharge a LIon daily this rapidly for months, let alone years.
I'm not sure LIons are the right thing for large-scale electric cars. And I don't believe electric cars are viable for most people yet. Plug-in hybrids are a lot closer to the mark I think.
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jeffrey 1:14AM (5/31/2006)
Subaru & Nissan have both pledged to launch electric-only vehicles for the public by 2010. Subaru's R1e, which is currently testing on Japanese streets, uses a lithium-ion battery (developed jointly w/NEC) than can be recharged to 90% of capacity in five minutes. The current prototypes can be driven about 75 miles without recharging, but the distance is expected to be expanded to about 125 miles.
As the author says, Jerry Flint's argument is about to be outdated.
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Takeo 1:52AM (5/31/2006)
Mike, You're kidding right? Most Hybrids don't store the batteries anywhere NEAR the engine compartment.
Don't be a moron.
Discharging at 20C ( That's 20X times the charge rate) is extremely harsh. And yes, sealed lithium polymers can survive both climates as long as you don't puncture the casing (Saltwater is used to neutralize lithium polymer batteries. I guess since you haven't ever worked on a vehicle made after 1975, that it hasn't occured to you that batteries don't have to be located under the bood?
RC Fan, NIMH batteries are NOT more power dense, and they have a lot of problems with internal resistance, and power loss over time that Li Polymer batteries don't have. In addition NIMH batteries require heavy metal outer casings where Li-Polys don't
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Bruce Bird 6:05AM (5/31/2006)
Everyone seems to be concentrating far too much on the detail. Provided there is sufficient demand then the engineers will crack the problem. The example of the rapid growth in electric RC using the latest developments in li-po is valid. But the growth in this leisure activity is taking advantage of the market availability, it is not driving it. The demand drive is coming from our insatiable desire for portable electronic devices.
So the engineers are packing more power into every gramme and whether it can be scaled up to a 2 tonne vehicle, in whatever combination of technology, is only a matter of when, not if.
Granted, we will only have moved the point where the pollution is created from the exhaust to the power station - but at least we will then have the opportunity to deal with it in bulk at that point - and that's a different question.
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Mario Vos 6:47AM (5/31/2006)
NiMH batteries are becoming better and better every year. Lexus uses them in de GS 450h (hybrid) and they stopped testing after 300.000 kilometers because there was no significant decrease in power. Li-ion is also getting better every year, so I'm convinced that electric cars will come. When there are good batteries, we don't need the expensive hydrogen and fuel cell technology.
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RacetrackOwner 7:10AM (5/31/2006)
Let me get this straight -- since you've seen RC cars that can scoot around a few ounces of plastic at low speed, or a drill that seems to last longer than usual, you're actually claiming that this is clear evidence that a full-blown plug-in electric car is just around the corner? Start by spending some time doing calculations to see how much horsepower you'll need to move a reasonable weight (car + batteries + passenger + luggage) around, then do the basic horsepower/kilowatt conversion. Ignoring many other basic factors, this alone should demonstrate why this Miracle of Science isn't just around the corner. Please keep the green-fanboy pseudo-news in Autoblog Green, m'kay?
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Eric Bryant 9:03AM (5/31/2006)
"Let me get this straight -- since you've seen RC cars that can scoot around a few ounces of plastic at low speed, or a drill that seems to last longer than usual, you're actually claiming that this is clear evidence that a full-blown plug-in electric car is just around the corner?"
I don't think there's much of a near-term future for "pure" electric vehicles, but I'm extremely confident that improved technology will make plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) practical in just a few years.
With regards to your comments about doing some calculations, have *you* gotten out the pencil and paper? Modern lithium technologies are promising continous discharge rates of 2700W/kg, or about 4 horsepower/pound. Instantanous rates can be twice as high. A hybrid with a 200 lb pack starts to get really interesting from a power delivery standpoing. That same pack might pack about 14kWh or so of capacity, or about 18 HP-hours (enough energy to cover a reasonable commute - and in an PHEV, it's not like one has to depend completely upon the battery). Upcoming technology promises to substantially reduce that weight figure (or improve the capacity and discharge rate at the same weight).
As an automotive electrical engineer and someone who spent a couple of years in the battery industry, I'll certainly concede that the automotive environment is far harsher than that of a hobby product or power tool. Yet, we've still found ways to make lead-acid, NiCad, and NiMH batteries survive, and I'm confident that we'll also get lithium batteries that can withstand the environmental extremes.
There are a lot of holes to be punched in the concept of PHEVs, but battery technology isn't a great place for negative attitudes - it's simply advancing too rapidly. Now, start discussing issues like electric distribution grid capacity - a problem that likely will not be solving in anyone's laboratory - and then maybe there's some ground to stand on.
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Felix Kramer 9:37AM (5/31/2006)
Lots of good comments pro and con about plug-in hybrids and the state of battery technology. If you want to go to the horse's mouth and see what we're doing, what we're asking Ford to let us do, why we think the batteries are ready, and why 100+MPG plus the cost of electricity is a great deal for the driver and the world, see http://www.calcars.org -- look at the FAQ, the vehicles page, the news page.
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guyincognito 10:29AM (5/31/2006)
College student built, solar powered cars have been racing several thousand miles across the country on lithium ion batteries for years.
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JZeke 10:41AM (5/31/2006)
"Im not quite dead yet!"
To paraphrase Monty Python, the internal combustion engine still has the legs to get us to get us to the NiCad, Li whatever electric future.
What #14 finished his post with is more interesting. Plug into where exactly? So we drain more from the grid to make a cleaner car... then what?
Plug-in cars need a better electric infrastructure than we have now. Remeber a couple years ago when a faulty breaker in an Ohio power plant shut the entire NorthEast down in the biggest black-out since the 70s? We have a pretty archaic grid, one that relies 95% on massive power stations which are increasingly close to death.
Even the best battery tech will mean nothing without equally advanced power generation and distribution. Whats the answer? Nuclear? Solar? More likely than not its gonna take another hybrid -- personal power generation and redistribution -- to get us there. But until everyone has solar panels, an at-home hydrogen reformer and there are some new-gen nukes built...
...we're all gonna still be driving on dinosaurs.
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Richard Carling 11:29AM (5/31/2006)
The solution to the Grid problem is Wind Power. U.S. Energy Dept survey 1991; North Dakota, Texas & Kansas have enough constant Wind Power to supply the entire country. The landowners love wind farms because they can still use the land and get paid as well. See Plan B 2.0 Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble by Lester Brown (Earth Policy Institute.org) Wind Power is the perfect compliment to Plug-In Hybrids. Add in conservation measures and we are a long way toward solving our energy problems. RC
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RC Fan 12:04PM (5/31/2006)
Takeo, I never said NiMH is more power dense than LIon. Although they don't do too badly in the comparison on volume. They are a lot heavier than LIon, but for a ground-based vehicle with regenerative braking, the weight difference may not matter at all.
What I did say is that NiMH gives up power more quickly than LIon (or Poly) and is charged more quickly than LIon (or Poly). And that can make a big difference. Ask an RC helicopter owner how long their LI batteries last. They'll probably proudly exclaim something like 50 cycles (maybe 30!). And that's fine, when an RC helicopter costs a grand and the radio costs $400, what's $0.80 ($40 pack every 40 runs) in battery replacement per run?
But in a real car, 50 cycles is peanuts. You'll have to get new batteries every six weeks at best. LIons just don't last a long time under heavy draw. NiMHs do a lot better. NiCds are much better again, but are a non-starter given that they are being banned in Europe and that they don't carry enough energy.
And lets not forget that manufacturing LIons is pretty harsh on the environment. If China had any kind of environmental controls, they'd cost even more than they do.
LIons keep developing though, the situation changes every day.
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