Auto X-Prize: $25mil - 250 mpg - 10,000 units
Details are emerging about the upcoming auto-related challenge to be issued by the California-based X-Prize foundation. The organization’s new challenge will
award a prize of $25 million to the first group that sells 10,000 vehicles capable of 250 mpg.Throwing in the caveat of moving 10K units makes the challenge very interesting, as a handful of vehicles have already been developed that achieve 250 mpg. VW unveiled a car called the 1-Litre in 2002 that achieved 264 mpg, for instance. The real challenge will be developing such a vehicle that can attract a down payment from 10,000 people.
The particular rules and goals for the competition have not yet been set and it’s unclear who would or actually could participate in the challenge. The cost of developing such a thrifty piece of transportation will be significant, but the additional price of producing 10,000 copies will surely move this challenge out of the average Joe’s garage. Conversely, any automaker would likely spend 10x the value of the $25mil prize trying to achieve such a feat.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
AES 1:14PM (3/15/2006)
The X-Prize worked for space flight, but this is just ridiculous, honestly. I think they should focus on encouraging the development of individual technologies (hydrogen storage, engine design, etc). That way they can draw from a wider base of skill across the population. Otherwise, the only competitors would be auto companies, and they're already in a race with each other.
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Presto 1:18PM (3/15/2006)
"250 MPG for $1,000"
- Dr. Evil
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Bob 1:29PM (3/15/2006)
The funny thing is, it is cheaper to build a new spacecraft than design a new car. $25M is a drop in the bucket.
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Runes 1:45PM (3/15/2006)
If 10000 unit of the winning car have to be sold, that would mean it have to meet safety and other government regulations. Also whats the point of an X-prize award for a 250mpg car which only involves the automakers (who can afford to actually manufacturing the vehicles). How can individuals or small firms with breakthru ideas compete when they have no mass production abilities???
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kevin 1:47PM (3/15/2006)
if the requirement is to make them sellable, contestants will need to get more people involved than just engineers. like designers, PR, etc...
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DKB_SATX 1:47PM (3/15/2006)
Well, when this was first covered (without details) it seemed like a good thing. Frankly I think it's a bit unrealistic, but that's probably the condition of getting the $25M policy from Lloyd's or whoever, you have to make it impossible so you can actually afford the price of the policy. I guess they learned from the space prize!
At 250 mpg, this will be ignored by mainstream automakers, and at 10k units it'll be ignored by small, out-there manufacturers like the Rutans.
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Phil L. 1:48PM (3/15/2006)
This automotive X-Prize won't work.
If they're looking for new technology that ignores conventional thinking, they need to do something to the 10K sales requirement. Admittedly, it's a good way to make sure the contest isn't simply a display of one-off tecnology - but it eliminates many contenders. Today, only a current medium-size-or-better auto manufacturer would have the intrastructure to support such a production and sales requirement.
The 10K requirement also pushes the effort out of the developmental/experimental area: The car would likely have to meet emissions and safety requirements in several regions of the world.Granted, this is likely what the prize authors have in mind, but the added expense and complexity will also keep a number of otherwise-interested parties from even attempting to compete.
I'll also be curious to see how they handle measuring fuel consumption in the context of an international competition. The well-known US EPA standard is being revised to better reflect real-world driving (including A/C, more realistic speeds, etc.). This effort is also expected to result in more accurate, but lower fuel consumption estimates. Quick Googling didn't reveal how VW measured 264 mpg in the 1-liter, but I doubt it would be duplicated in a standard EPA test.
John Neff's estimate of 10x the $25mil prize in development costs is probably low. My guess? Up it by an order of magnitude. I'd also take the X-Prize committee's efforts more seriously if they upped the prize by an order of magnitude.
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Optimus Prime 2:01PM (3/15/2006)
Toyota made 3.35 billion dollars in profit from October to December 2005 ... does the x-prize committee think that 25 million is gonna entice them to build this imaginary vehicle? Meanwhile GM probably blows through that in a week for salary and benefits. The 250 mpg mass produced car will be available when it becomes available .. 25 million isnt gonna make it get there any faster.
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sirAQUAMAN64 2:13PM (3/15/2006)
The VW 1-Litre working Concept.
http://www.canadiandriver.com/articles/gw/vw1litre.htm
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amp 2:32PM (3/15/2006)
I think 25M is reasonable prize money. If a major OEM were to go after it, the cost of the project would more than likely be written off as marketing expense. They could get a lot of good press by wining this. Granted they would easily blow through 10x as much cash developing it, but I could see the advertising potential being more.
But developing a 250 mpg car wouldn't be as expensive as a normal car program. For one, since you only have to build 10k of them, you're granted a little more flexibility when it comes to manufacturing technique. Plus, with such a low volume, you might be able to get a waiver from NTSA when it comes to crash worthyness. If the thing gets 250+ mpg, you'll have no problem getting the EPA off your backs either.
The winning design for this vehicle will be a small two, maybe three seat micro car that is used soley for urban transport. If you can limit the speed to 40 mph or so, that should not only help with fuel economy, but also with NTSA's safty negotiations.
My bet is that one or more of the domestics go after this. They have deeper pockets than the small fabricators and could use the good press the most.
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chris jones 2:38AM (6/05/2007)
If the winner is going to try and get around crash safety then I believe that it would be a hard sell to the consumers and probably be a legal liability to the company making them. I also think that the development cost for a marketable car of this nature would be astronomical. Consider that Acura spent 5 billion in doing marketing research for the RSX before making it, and that was a car sitting on a Honda Civic platform. The money is enough of an incentive for small companies but not significant to the large auto manufacturers, which I believe was the intent of the X Prize.
Presto 2:51PM (3/15/2006)
$25 Million is a drop in the bucket for Toyota, and they're probably the only ones who can get to 250 MPG the fastest.
Unfortunately, by the time cars get 250 MPG, it will be so far from now that $25M will be what you buy a cappucino for.
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samuel 3:00PM (3/15/2006)
amp wrote "written off as a marketing expense"
Of all your dumb remarks, this is the dumbest.
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Mike 3:23PM (3/15/2006)
"Conversely, any automaker would likely spend 10x the value of the $25mil prize trying to achieve such a feat."
Precisely why GM and Ford teeter on the brink of bankruptcy.....
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Ford Mustang 3:27PM (3/15/2006)
Unlike the original x-prize, i dont think we'll ever see this prize won by anyone. 250mpg is way off for a car that anyone would want to buy, and the costs of designing, engineering, and producing such a vehicle would surpase the $25mil mark anyway.
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klaatu 3:49PM (3/15/2006)
There was a prototype Daihatsu (part-owned by Toyota) with 3 seats (one central in front, 2 behind), a tilting roof-door, 660cc's plus hybrid power which obtained 205 MPG, so with some fine-tuning before production, it might be do-able within a couple years.
The question is, would the car sell (as a Scion) in the US?
How about it. I'm guessing - but $10,000 - $12,000 for a 3 seater futuristic 250 mpg car?
Who else thinks there "might" be a market for such a car in the United States?
When I carpool with my wife in our Prius, we see virtually 95% of all other cars, trucks and SUVs with ONE PERSON ABOARD.
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JZeke 3:50PM (3/15/2006)
The original Ansari X-prize was for 10 million, but amazingly Burt Rutan and crew did the whole project for only 20 million!
If this x prize was commesurate with that level of investment the winnings would be more in the ballpark of 250 million.
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Jay 3:52PM (3/15/2006)
I think a lot of people are missing the point of the X-Prize. It's not just coming up with the technology, but finding a way to do it cheaply. With the first X-Prize, in an era where government space agencies spend BILLIONS of dollars to put people into space, did you think it was possible to put people into space for less than the cost of a moderately-budgeted Hollywood movie? Well, the X-Prize for spaceflight showed it's possible to do for only around $30 million. It cost over twice as much as the actual prize itself, but it sets up the people involved to profit far more with continued R&D and applying what was learned. If a company or group of people do figure out a way to come up with a relatively inexpensive vehicle that can achieve the goal for a modest budget, it doesn't matter if the $25 million prize doesn't cover all of the costs of production. The technology and experience gleaned from the attempt will pay for itself in the future. Toyota didn't make all of its money back on its hybrid powertrain R&D with the first 10,000 Priuses sold (and probably still hasn't), but the later sales, experience, and positive PR gained from that is worth quite a lot. The MPG X-Prize may take more funding to get off the ground, but whoever figures out how to do it cheaply stands to be greatly rewarded for the effort. And so does the Earth, as well as many consumers.
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Phil L. 3:57PM (3/15/2006)
amp -
Huh?
No way NHTSA would allow ten thousand cars out there that don't meet current standards. And the EPA will care about what comes out of the tailpipe, no matter what the MPG is.
And sorry, but the folks who understand mass manufacturing will tell you that building 10K of an entirely new and different technology will initially cost far more than building 100K of a well-understood technology that's shared across multiple product lines. Clearly, the X-Prize committee wants to encourage this kind of technology to build up to the possibility of mass production, but I don't see this prize doing it.
The idea of a 40 mph urban-transit-only vehicle is intriguing, but a lot of legislation would have to be enacted to make it happen in the US. Recall all of the excitement over 'neighborhood vehicles' some years back: But legislation limited them to roads with 25 mph speed limits or less (useless in any real city). Sure, you'll see these souped-up golf carts in retirement communities, but the idea that they'd become local neighborhood grocery-getters or short-hop city commuters hasn't panned out.
And American buyers have repeatedly shown their disdain for underpowered, undersized, though economical cars. A friend's 87 Chevy Sprint (3 cyl, 1 liter) got 55 mpg on the highway (IIRC, on a *carburetor*, no less), but enough of them rotted on dealership lots that the engine got bigger (even a turbo option!) before the line was finally killed off.
And note that the winner doesn't just have to *build* all of these cars - they actually have to *sell* them. There are all kinds of people who will claim to be interested in all manner of concept car - but priorities shift when it comes time to cough up real cash.
I'd love to see one of the domestic makers take on a challenge like this. But the reality is they're all struggling to survive right now (the deep pockets now have holes at the bottom); none of them will take on a new design/production effort unless they see clear profit potential (note that shareholders will make sure they remember this).
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jimmy 4:04PM (3/15/2006)
Oprah's Pontiac G6 giveaway cost more than $25 million... $25 million isn't even the advertising cost for one car model.
Plus, a 250 mpg car cannot be street legal in the US; where can the driver actually use it? 250 mpg to go round and round the track?
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