This one was a bit of a surprise. After being asked what impact the new 2007
Toyota Tundra would have on the full-size truck market in the U.S., the majority of Autoblog readers responded that
Nissan is the only brand that needs to worry. That response received 768 votes, which is 35 percent of the 2,171 votes
cast. This was a four-way fight all the way, however, with the second most popular response being that the Tundra will steal sales from Ford and GM and create a fierce four-way sales fight in the segment. Almost 400 of you believe Toyota will own the half-ton truck segment by 2010. Behind the scenes at Autoblog we’re as divided on the topic as you are, so we’ll be watching sales of the Tundra very closely when it hits the street at the end of this year.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Michael Karesh @ Feb 13th 2006 10:09AM
Readership might be overly hopeful.
Though it's difficult to structure surveys like this well. I was personally ambivalent between response #2 and response #3--they aren't mutually exclusive. An argument could be made that these should be combined, giving a vote for success--just not overwhelming success--57%.
Without even taking this much of a jump, only 35% chose the "winning" response, so it didn't get a majority.
max @ Feb 13th 2006 10:25AM
What is certain is when this truck is reviewed the press will drool and proclaim that GM and Ford will be out of the market in months.
Sort of like with the Ridgeline....which they just slashed production of...again.
They'd do that if it's the greatest truck ever or the worst truck ever-I think a good chunk of the automotive press is just folks who couldn't make it writing for the "features" section.
Tristen Evert @ Feb 13th 2006 10:34AM
The real world sales of the Tundra will reflect this outcome, but even more dramatically. For one, an online poll is not going to represent the entire population very well. I can't imagine theres a large percentage of ranchers/farmers etc. getting on here and blogging at night about how their Ford is not threatened over the latest and greatest attempt from Toyota. Secondly, this is ToyotaBlog, so if the Tundra doesn't "sell" well here, in the real world the effect will be double.
The F-150 is still a better looking truck, inside and out. I'd like to test drive a Tundra because I bet it is well made, but I think it still just looks too Japanese and silly too be taken seriously.
ankur @ Feb 13th 2006 10:35AM
this is really a capacity issue; the san antonio plant can make 200k; indiana is maxed out at 300k, with maybe half of that dedicated to the tundra based on sales #’s and the other half split between the sequoia and sienna. even running at 120% like Indiana has done previously, that’s a generous 420k trucks; ford and gm would have to lose more than half of their sales and dodge none for this to be a sales race!
while it’s definitely my top pick in the segment now (holding my breath on price…), there’s no way there’s gonna be a sales race by 2010, let alone tundra leading the pack unless they manage to make a new factory appear out of thin air. i’d have to agree, though, that things aren’t looking good for the titan unless nissan has some tricks up its sleeve, too.
XXL @ Feb 13th 2006 11:00AM
The Tundra will not be dominant in sales immediately. I think it will take a few more generations of the Tundra and Titan before trust is finally earned. Honda and Toyota did not earn their reputations right away, and sales of domestic cars were still much higher throughout the 70's and early 80's. Honda and Toyota gradually earned higher sales in cars, and I think that is the same thing that will happen in the full size truck market. Trucks need to earn respect, and thats going to take alot of continued improvement from both Nissan and Toyota.
Jeff Crew @ Feb 13th 2006 11:12AM
The new Tundra will do what Toyota has done in previous market segments - take customers away one at a time. There is no reason to doubt that this truck will succeed. I know some die hard GM fans that switched to Nissan Titans and they totally love that truck. Nissan did a good job with the Titan and the new Tundra will provide an even more mainstream alternative to the big 3 choices. It will increase the competitive nature of the segment making all of the manufacturers put better features and quality into their products for less price which benefits all of us as consumers. I want the north americans to succeed, but Toyota will take sales away from everyone with this new truck. They will not be the sales leader, but as they have shown in the past...it just takes time and they have all the time in the world which is a luxury no north american automaker has at this point. I am eager to see a comparison test between all of the full size trucks once GM releases its new GMT900 models.
Jaimie B @ Feb 13th 2006 11:33AM
"the majority of Autoblog readers responded that Nissan is the only brand that needs to worry"
Dude are you looking at the numbers? The other 65% just said that there WILL be an impact to domestic sales.
Tad @ Feb 13th 2006 11:55AM
Jeff,
I also know some hard core import fans who have witches to a Chevy or Ford truck and never looked back. Its all a matter of opinion and I have to say that when people think of trucks, most of them think of a silveredo or F-series. You also have to think of the variations of Chevy truck there is out there, silveredo, sierra, avalanche, Caddi EXT, etc. I personally dont see Nissan or Toyota as a threat anytime in the near future. The American companies have a loyal family of truck consumers and a loyal family is extremely hard (but not impossible) to break up. Looking at GM's new stuff...I dont see the imported trucks having a chance.
Tom @ Feb 13th 2006 12:00PM
NO THREAT TO DOMESTICS???? That's what the American companies have been thinking since the import invasion began and they were WRONG!
Ren @ Feb 13th 2006 12:26PM
I voted for "Only Nissan needs to worry" not because I don't think it's a great truck... I just think the loyalty of the segment's main customers lies with the domestics (even DaimlerChrysler).
max @ Feb 13th 2006 12:55PM
"8. NO THREAT TO DOMESTICS???? That's what the American companies have been thinking since the import invasion began and they were WRONG!
Posted at 12:00PM on Feb 13th 2006 by Tom 0 stars"
Yeah-but the companies are now aware of this and the survey wasn't of the companies-it was of the consumers.
Kyle @ Feb 13th 2006 1:05PM
Ummm....I think this article is innaccurate. A majority did NOT say only Nissan needed to worry. In fact, only 35% did. The other 65% actually indicated the domestics have to worry in some form. This is the opposite of what the story says.
Admiral Ackbar @ Feb 13th 2006 1:12PM
WOW you completely mis-interpreted your own poll. In the headline you say that the readership doesn't think the Tundra is a threat to domestics.
However the readership disagrees, as 65% made a vote that says the big three do need to worry! The last three choices (which add to 65%) are all variations of "yes, this truck is a threat to domestics"!
RossL @ Feb 13th 2006 1:59PM
What's needed here is a good editor :)
"... the majority of Autoblog readers responded that Nissan is the only brand that needs to worry."
Presumably what you're really trying to say is that the most popular response was, "only Nissan needs to worry". The word you're looking for is plurality, not magority.
Steve B. @ Feb 13th 2006 2:17PM
A majority believe that at least one domestic would feel the burn (65%) (#2, #3, #4)
A minority believe that all the domestics would be affected significantly affected. (44%, #3 + #4)
A minority believe that domestics wouldn't be threatened. (35%) (#1)
I am going to make a wild, unsubstanciated assumption that the blogger has never taken a basic statistics course. I'm also going to make a wild, unsubstanciated hypothesis that a college level general education is a prerequisite which separates bloggers from true journalists.
dave @ Feb 13th 2006 2:41PM
Well, considering that the average Autoblog reader is about as sharp as a rusty hacksaw, I'll leave it to the market to figure this one out. As others have mentioned, 35% is not a majority, but a plurality. It's a subtle distinction, but an important one.
That said, I don't think Toyota has an easy road ahead, but I don't think the full-size market is impenetrable either. Reputations take time to develop and Toyota has nothing if not patience and mountains of money sitting in the corporate coffers to wait this one out. Frankly, that's fine - this move forces the domestics to play their "A" game, and the consumer naturally benefits as a result. No more resting on laurels with the notion that brand loyalty will save you in the end, becuase, believe it or not, the next generation of truck buyers aren't the same people who are buying trucks now. No more passing off "quietsteel" as a legitimate innovation.
And with that, I'm pretty sure I'm never writing or reading another comment on this site ever again. The overall quality of conversation here (with exceptions) is about as good as James Frey's book is a literary masterpiece. I'll save my discussions about the industry for people who actually know what they're talking about.
maccve @ Feb 13th 2006 2:43PM
This is my first Autoblog post, but I have been reading it for quite some time and absolutely love this web site...
Anyway, my desire to comment on this subject is based upon the fact that I currently own my second Toyota Tundra. I have been reading about Toyota Tundras on different sites for years now...since I shopped for my first one. The main arguments againt the Tundra since it first came out are that "It's not a true full size truck" or "It doesn't have as big of an engine as my Chevy" etc..etc... Those arguments appear to have been resolved now with this new model. In other words, people are going to run out of excuses not to consider a Tundra.
I live and work in the Midwest and am a Civil Engineer and rountinely work with Contractors and Developers. They are the prime UAW supporters and only drive "American Made" vehicles. It has been interesting in this past year... I have seen Toyotas and Nissans popping up every so often in their parking lots and at job sites. I have even had one contractor comment that he wanted to buy a couple of Tundras for the company fleet after he test drove one, but his partner talked him out of it saying that his Mother has GM Stock and they can only buy a Chevy. I thought it was very intersting that he would even consider it and found it to be very indicative of the way people are starting to think around here and I would imagine all over the country.
I guess to sum up my comments, I think the Tundra is going to have a noticeable effect on the Big 3...it may take a few years and I don't really think they will take over Ford or Chevy any time soon in the sale of Light Duty Trucks. Right now, I am probably the typical Toyota Tundra Owner...I am married with children and like to have a truck to go to Lowes or Home Depot every weekend to work on the basement, but want that truck to drive more car-like (and it is one smooth ride) since it is my primary vehicle and be very dependable (only oil and tire changes and one recall over two tundras).
This new '07 Tundra is showing those people who need to tow a Hi-Lift or a load of Landscaping Blocks that Toyota is giving them a product to get the job done. Many of those people also use that truck as their personal vehicle also just as I do and that reliablity and smooth ride will be a very attractive feature over time...and according to the Toyota news releases it will still have the same driving characteristics and reliability of the current Tundra. Of course until the vehicle is out there for sale, no one knows for sure what it will be, but I know I will probably be on my third Tundra in about 5 or 6 years (my wife has me on the 8 year plan and won't let me trade any sooner)!
MJL @ Feb 13th 2006 3:11PM
Yay for spelling things right when you correct other people's diction
Marc @ Feb 13th 2006 3:33PM
I know it's been said several times by diffenet posters, but I'll add my voice to the chorus. John Neff (author of the blog), you got it all wrong. Toyota won this poll 65-35. Are you going to respond? What do you have to say about it?
I complain about the MSM often, and one of my complaints is that the real story is often buried under misleading headlines and misleading opening paragraphs. This blog entry copies that tactic. I brought up the fact that Toyota winning the poll when the poll was first presented. Mr Neff, you should have read my post before creating this blog entry.
TechRightGuy @ Feb 13th 2006 4:03PM
Yes, to continue the optimistic flogging of the dearly departed horse, I agree with all those who point out your failure to correctly interpret the data.
But we, your faithful readers, rushed in to meet the need without requiring the "good editor" for which #14 (he of 'magority' fame) was clamoring. (Just teasing, #14; I applaud you for supplying exactly the correct word to describe the results, no mean feat.)
Detroit will continue to discount Toyota's relentless march to their own peril. With none of the smoke and mirrors that Ghosn has used so effectively to resuscitate Nissan (and Piech at VW Group in the 90's) they execute brilliantly time after time, never skimping, using the same pattern of first dipping their toe in the water, and then incrementally improving their entry until they are at the top. It's deja vu all over again; remember Jack Welch's mantra, that GE would only be in markets where they were either 1st or 2nd in that market? It does a brilliant job of providing focus for the troops, at every level.