Posted Dec 22nd 2005 8:00AM
Being a bit
more optimistic of 2006 than Jerry Flint and his predictions, Forbes columnist Jonathan
Fahey provides his take on the automotive industry where he sees increased competition returning to small vehicles and
the rise of the Saturn brand. Other predictions:I have to agree with Steve J (#12) that hybrid technology will be used like all other automotive technology; to make cars go faster. That seems to be the only important criteria for auto reviewers. I can't count the number of times a review could be summarized as: "nice car, but it needs a bigger engine". I've yet to see an article that says a car has too much power.
I'm glad this hybrid craze came around at the right time. It added a rare choice to the market; you can buy a loaded car without also taking an overpowered engine. I don't think as many hybrids would sell if most car companies didn't force you to buy a stripped economy car if you want good fuel economy. Now I can overpay for an efficient engine rather than overpay for a more powerful engine.
My 1992 Honda Civic SI was great. I loved all the features, like cruise control and a sun roof, and the engine I was forced to buy along with the features I wanted wasn't too bad on gas (32 mpg overall). Unfortunately cars don't last forever, and Honda doesn't sell hatchbacks any more, so I was forced to go with Toyota to buy one.
I am willing to argue that a hybrid is a rational decision. Whether a hybrid actually saves money depends on a large number of factors; starting with which vehicles you compare and the payback period. Everyone has a different idea of what is comparable; for some people, a Yaris and a Prius might be equivalent, but they'd probably also think a Yaris and a Hummer were equivalent for what they need in a vehicle. In real life, most people wouldn't consider a Camry and a Yaris or even a Corolla to be equivalent, so why compare a Prius and a Yaris?
I also think a reasonable payback period is the life of the car, not some arbitrary 3-5 year figure. I don't know how long the batteries will last, but Toyota claims they will last the life of the car and I know rechargeable batteries can last decades; my father has a shaver with rechargeable batteries that is still working after 15 years. In my case, the Prius was big enough that I no longer needed my Astro van; so my prius replaced two vehicles.
I'll add a last grump. There are a large number of people who buy hybrids because they are impressed with the technology. It's just as impressive to have throttle by wire, break by wire, electric steering, a touch screen, buttons on the steering wheel and push-button start in a hybrid as it is in a supercar. If you overpay for BMW technology, somehow your choice is accepted; but overpay for technology in a hybrid and you must be trying to make a point.
chris, i was JUST gonna post that, and i saw your comment at the very bottom.
too bad no one on arrested development is gonna be allowed to get too much older :(
oh yeah, um, hybrids yay
Hybrid or economy car, it all works out in the end to -- you are not going to save on gas expense -- because, thinking about the high economy all the time -- you will drive TWICE AS MUCH. It happens to everybody with small cars. The only way you can save is by keeping to your monthly mileage before the Hybrid or new small car purchase.
December 22 2005 at 9:05 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyAm I the only one that help but think of Tobias Funke when I see this guy?
http://static.flickr.com/30/54083505_71467122a4_o.jpg
Hybrids are purchased for karmic reasons, yes, as are Huge Trucks/Hummers. People want them. Anything beyond an enclosed motorcycle with windshield wipers is "excess features" if an automobile is merely viewed as a means of transport. We all know its more complex than that. Hybrids have very close to zero emissions, which is a *huge* savings that is not "valued" in these "cost/benefit" analyses. People are willing to pay from their own pocket to make a difference. Perhaps the US government will notice and reconsider signing Kyoto accord? Probably not.
GM has been a finance company that "happened to sell cars on the side" for over a decade (more?) so they have not been investing in design or engineering (hey, it doesn't make money, so why bother?) They might be a more viable concern if they were offerring financing on Toyota or Honda models! They imagined that splashy marketing and incentives/rebates/financing could lure "dumb consumers" into dealerships, and for a while it sort of worked, until folks realized that what was in the dealerships, no matter how deep the discount, was patently inferior to what was available elsewhere.
KISS principle is a 40 year old car with manual windows, a basic tape player, updated electronic ignition, halogen headlights, better brakes/tires and nothing "power" except the engine.
A detuned Lotus Elise (say with the 1.3 liter Scion engine) and skinnier tyres would give tremendous economy, fine performance, and be a thrill to drive also. That is a modern version of KISS, eh?
Hybrids are neither hype, nor the savior of the automotive world. Their intended goal is less fuel consumption, and as such they work well in some applications, but only moderately in others.
Personally, I find it strange that people will pay big bucks for a better stero, and heated seats at the drop of a hat, but will put hybrids on the balance sheet for a full on pro/con evaluation. Personal taste is the driving factor here...
I wouldn't consider a hybrid because I believe in the KISS principle, and the complexity isn't worth the long term maintenence risks (100,000 isn't 'high mileage' to me). Call me when a pure electric is available that can attain 70mph, go for 80 miles a day, and can be fully charged in 8 hours. I'd be all over that...
My thoughts from the article:
Hybrid will ultimately be used less as a fuel-saving technology and more as a performance boost, a la turbo and supercharging, without sacrificing the engine's existing fuel economy. This is similar to the approach used on vehicles like the Lexus RX and the Honda Acura. It'll be used to blunt the mileage effects of the increased desire for more and more horsepower. There will be some vehicles that are sold for strictly gas mileage, but I expect it'll become more common in other cars as a performance boost.
I'm skeptical on the predicted resurgence of Saturn. With some exceptions, like the new Astra, Opel is every bit as boring and lacking in character as most of GM's North American lineup. There's not going to be enough to stand out there to really make people jump up and take notice and overcome the big block a lot of the marketplace has when it comes to not even placing GM on consideration lists.
Hybrid definetly equals hype. Its nice to see most of the large magazines finally giving you a TRUE cost of ownership and basicly showing that the hybrid only helps the planet, not your pocketbook.
And, the long term disposal issues of the batteries havent been addressed, so we arent even sure if it helps the planet!
I agree totally on the "Misplaced Assumption". Yes, the health care and other costs negotiated by the unions are a burden. But the main problem is that GM especially, and Ford as well, have just missed the boat so badly in product management. For years they have manipulated their customers through marketing, through financial incentives and through lobbying attempts at regulatory advantage. What they haven't done is focus on building the cars that people want.
Think of quality, what comes to mind? Toyota, Honda, maybe Mercedes.
Think of luxury? Mercedes, Lexus, Infiniti
Think value? Honda, Toyota, Hyundai
Sport? Porsche, Audi, Acura, Misubish, Subaru
Outside of Cadillacs for old people, and Corvettes and new Mustangs for sporty people who can afford a lot of gas, Detroit has no brands that maintain mindshare with popular market segments. It isn't the assembly line workers that caused that problem.
What we really need is to combine the major fights on Autoblog. Therefore, I am drafting a petition and I hope everyone one will sign it.
Dear Toyota,
Please begin advertising the Prius in gay magazines. It is your duty to then cancel the advertising and come out publicly saying that you hate America and people should buy Foreign. You should call (publicly) the UAW dated, ignorant, and obsolete. Please give a ridiculously big bonus to your executives and announce that you think the new Challenger can open a can on the Mustang. Finally, you should state that any company or issue not addressed in your press release is irrelevant and matters only to people with a below average IQ.
Thank you for your time,
Autoblog fans.
