Filed under: Trends, Economy, Hybrids/Alternative
Toyota aims to cut hydrogen car prices by 95% in ten years
Toyota announced on Friday that they intend to cut 95% of the
cost from fuel cell cars by 2015. Sounds great, until you realize that Toyota estimates that the current
price is about $1 million. For those not inclined to do the math, that puts the 2015 price at $50,000. Ouch.
Toyota is also considering whether to offer a fuel-cell vehicle for public sale earlier than 2015 and at
a price well above $50K that they're dubbing the "Ferrari of hydrogen".
Such a vehicle would be purchased by affluent customers, presumably for the purpose of making a statement (much like the Prius is currently used by the Hollywood set), but the issue of fueling points - or lack thereof - is thought to be a major obstacle. On that issue, its now said that the Toyota-GM talks were intended in part to show the fuel industry how serious automakers are about hydrogen. Setting up 1,000 fueling points is estimated to cost approximately $12 billion; a lot of money, but only about two years worth of profits for ExxonMobil. And no, Toyota didnt mention how wed produce all that hydrogen.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Phil L. 10:25PM (12/18/2005)
But - based on what I've read so far - building a fuel cell car is easy compared to coming up with an effective, efficient, large-scale hydrogen source.
As I understand it (experts feel free to chime in), scaling current technologies fundamentally results in either drilling more oil wells (to extract hydrogen from petroleum - fairly easy and efficient), or building more power plants (to more ineffiently extract hydrogen from water); neither approach is a net gain over what we've got now.
All this said, I like the idea - but don't yet see a way for it to solve fundamental problems until a realistic hydrogen source is developed.
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Tom W 10:25PM (12/18/2005)
I don't care how safe they say it is. I'm not getting into a vehicle with a tank of compressed hydrogen on board.
Call me when someone develops a way to extract hydrogen on-the-fly from water. I would feel much more comfortable knowing that the fuel tank is full of water.
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Eric Bryant 10:25PM (12/18/2005)
I gotta be honest - a tank of hydrogen doesn't worry me much more than gasoline. It's a dang tough engineering problem, though, and the sort of bulk and complexity involved with storing hydrogen in a high-density fashion doesn't seem to lend itself to economy-car applications.
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TehSig 10:25PM (12/18/2005)
I say we walk to new destinations and just exhibit cars!
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Max. 10:25PM (12/18/2005)
Naturally, this will be achieved through blue LEDs in the suspension.
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Jeff Gilleran 10:25PM (12/18/2005)
Honestly, I could care less about having a small hydrogen tank onboard.
Gasoline isnt compressed, but it too can explode with violent force.
Its comparing apples to apples when you consider how damn hard these hydrogen tanks are built even currently in prototypes, and its been shown that its just as safe as any gasoline tank.
$50,000 for a Fuel Cell powered vehicle isnt unrealistic considering we are talking 2015 here.
Thats nearly 10 years away, and at the rate the current auto prices have been increasing, 50 grand will become closer to a "norm" in the future anyway.
Currently, all the talk right now about "hydrogen infrastructure economy" is in its infancy.
All is mainly "speculation" and has several constantly changing techological design variables that include:
1.New ways to improve hydrogen storage.
2.Possibly eliminate the need for it altogether.
3.More effecient fuel cell energy speeds and outputs.
4. More powerful and lighter electric motors.
5. Advanced lighter materials and designs.
6. Dramatically improved energy storage systems.
A combination of any and all of these technoligies will be needed to create a viable system, but I feel confident it can and will be achieved, safely and economically as we move into the future.
The research is progressing quite quickly.
Think about how far we have come in just the last 10 years alone!
Sure, there is work to be done.
But I myself am eager to move away from the idiocy of unstable oil prices and the constant bickering about EPA requirements at varying states for emission controls and such.
Having more simplicity sounds bliss to me just on those 2 things alone.
:)
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Praetorian 10:25PM (12/18/2005)
Say it with me everyone:
biodiesel
-Mechanically simple (and therefore inexpensive, reliable, and scaleable) engines.
-Uses existing fuel distribution system, allowing for a smooth transition to the new fuel source.
Those two reasons alone *kill* the other alternatives outright, and there are plenty more, but I shall not bore you with them. Lets hope the algae-based biodiesel production method works out.
Cheers,
prat
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Gnash 10:25PM (12/18/2005)
I am in favor of any eco-cool cars - hybrid, hydrogen, and biodiesel.
As for a $50,000 car - I agree with the person who said that given it is 10 years from now, it doesn't seem like it is that out of hand.
For me, I simply reflect on the fact that when I was in Italy gas was literally $6.00 a gallon (think Euro conversion, price is per liter there, etc.).
I would be surprised if gas isn't close to $6.00+ a gallon in 10 years in the US given that experts say oil production will PEAK in 10 years which may even be generous given the hockey stick consumption levels by China and India (remember they are not only buying cars but oil = plastic which is a major Chinese export).
Putting it all together I think $50,000 for a hydrogen car will seem like a downright bargain to us in 10 years.
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